As is generally the case, the only race in the general area where the eventual winner has not already locked up victory is in Ron Paul's open seat. The district has been redesigned to include some union friendly territory, so the Democratic and the Republican are running a tight race, which also features a Libertarian and Green Party candidate.
From the Chron:
One of the state’s 36 congressional races is a real, true, honest-to-goodness competition, according to the political maps, the candidates, the consultants, the activists and everybody else who’s paying attention.
Another 34 districts were designed to protect incumbents, the parties that now hold them, or both. Weird things happen in politics all the time, but barring the unexpected, those are set. The lawmakers who did the designing got what they wanted.
Then, there’s the race in the state’s 14th Congressional District — the place opened when U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, decided he wouldn’t seek another term. It’s been redrawn to include all of Jefferson and Galveston counties and part of Brazoria County.
State Rep. Randy Weber, R-Alvin, faces Democrat Nick Lampson, a former congressman from Beaumont; Libertarian Zach Grady; and the Green Party’s Rhett Rosenquest Smith.
It’s conservative turf. Gov. Rick Perry got 55.9 percent of the vote in his 2010 re-election. Two years before that, Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain got 57 percent of the vote in the presidential race.
Weber is counting on those tendencies — and on the unpopularity of President Obama in the district — to carry the day.
Lampson has run in this area before, on different political maps, at different times, but on political ground that closely matches the current district. He’s a known quantity, he argues. And though he has lost a couple of races since leaving Congress, he says a Democrat can succeed under the right circumstances, especially at a time when voters are fed up with partisans.