What is public opinion?
- Public opinion is the collective opinion on a specific topic or voting intention relevant to society. It is the people's views on matters affecting them.
- public opinion, an aggregate of the individual views, attitudes, and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by a significant proportion of a community.
- Public opinion is one of the most frequently evoked terms in American politics. At the most basic level, public opinion represents people’s collective preferences on matters related to government and politics
How do we know what public opinion is?
“Informal” Ways to Measure Public Opinion.
The formal academic study of public opinion is relatively new but the practical study of public opinion is not new at all. Governments have paid attention to public opinion as long as there have been governments. Even the most oppressive tyrants need to know what the people are thinking, even if just to oppress them more effectively. As the famous investigator of public opinion, V.O. Key, Jr. said, “Governments must concern themselves with the opinions of their citizens, if only to provide a basis for repression of disaffection.”
One of the earliest expressions of public opinion was rebellion. Peasant rebellions have occurred throughout history. When the king saw his subjects in open rebellion, it was a pretty clear sign that the public’s support for his government was eroding. Unpaid taxes was another clue; when rulers saw their tax receipts dwindle and heard reports of tax collectors being killed, they knew that public opinion was turning against them.
For centuries rulers have established secret police forces to find out which people oppose the government and to eliminate them. Secret police have, among other things, acted as monitors of public opinion.
How do we measure public opinion?
Public Opinion Polls
A scientific, nonbiased public opinion poll is a type of survey or inquiry designed to measure the public's views regarding a particular topic or series of topics. Trained interviewers ask questions of people chosen at random from the population being measured. Responses are given, and interpretations are made based on the results. It is important in a random sample that everyone in the population being studied has an equal chance of participating. Otherwise, the results could be biased and, therefore, not representative of the population. Representative samples are chosen in order to make generalizations about a particular population being studied.
- From the Pew Research Center: A short course - Public Opinion Polling Basics.
- FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings.
- The Polls Got It Right In 2022. Here Are The Pollsters To Trust.
- How does Gallup polling work?
Why does a government or other institution want to understand public opinion.
- What’s public opinion to a democracy?
In a democracy like ours it is an accepted idea that the public which is called upon to make important decisions at the ballot box must be kept informed of popular issues. It is also an important principle of our governmental system that public policies are decided upon by the people. Popular control over lawmaking bodies, over executives in the government, and over domestic and foreign policy is a basic idea in our political society. The people are the source of power. Hence their opinions should mold the action of government.
- What's public opinion in a campaign?The first thing that any political campaign must do is establish the theme, message and issues. Many candidates "think" they know what the top issues are in their districts but why make costly assumptions if you can just ask them. That may sound simple but is it far more complex than you might think.
The universe of households polled is as important as the questions that you ask. Polling can not only tell your campaign what your voters are thinking about issues and candidates, it can provide you path to change their opinion. The results must be properly analyzed and cross referenced with all available demographic data available to give you results that are the most accurate and meaningful to your political campaign.
Viability Polling
If you care considering running for political office or beginning a ballot initiative campaign you will want to know what to know where you stand. Viability polling can tell you not only whether you should you run and assess your chances for victory, it can also determine whether your opponent has any exploitable flaws and help with initial fundraising and budget projections for the campaign. Viability and vulnerability polling is ideally conducted before you begin the campaign.
How do people form opinions?
- Political Socialization
Our first political ideas are shaped within the family. Parents seldom "talk politics" with their young children directly, but casual remarks made around the dinner table or while helping with homework can have an impact. Family tradition is particularly a factor in party identification, as indicated by the phrases lifelong Republican and lifelong Democrat. The family may be losing its power as an agent of socialization, however, as institutions take over more of child care and parents perform less of it.
Political socialization is the process by which individuals learn and frequently internalize a political lens framing their perceptions of how power is arranged and how the world around them is (and should be) organized; those perceptions, in turn, shape and define individuals' definitions of who they are and how they should behave in the political and economic institutions in which they live." Political socialization also encompasses the way in which people acquire values and opinions that shape their political stance and ideology
- From Federalist 10:
The latent causes of faction are thus sown in the nature of man; and we see them everywhere brought into different degrees of activity, according to the different circumstances of civil society. A zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points, as well of speculation as of practice; an attachment to different leaders ambitiously contending for pre-eminence and power; or to persons of other descriptions whose fortunes have been interesting to the human passions, have, in turn, divided mankind into parties, inflamed them with mutual animosity, and rendered them much more disposed to vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good. So strong is this propensity of mankind to fall into mutual animosities, that where no substantial occasion presents itself, the most frivolous and fanciful distinctions have been sufficient to kindle their unfriendly passions and excite their most violent conflicts. But the most common and durable source of factions has been the various and unequal distribution of property. Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society. Those who are creditors, and those who are debtors, fall under a like discrimination. A landed interest, a manufacturing interest, a mercantile interest, a moneyed interest, with many lesser interests, grow up of necessity in civilized nations, and divide them into different classes, actuated by different sentiments and views.
- Agents of Socialization:
Family
Schools
Children are introduced to elections and voting when they choose class officers, and the more sophisticated elections in high school and college teach the rudiments of campaigning. Political facts are learned through courses in American history and government, and schools, at their best, encourage students to critically examine government institutions. Schools themselves are involved in politics; issues such as curriculum reform, funding, and government support for private schools often spark a debate that involves students, teachers, parents, and the larger community.
Peer groups
Although peer pressure certainly affects teenagers' lifestyles, it is less evident in developing their political values. Exceptions are issues that directly affect them, such as the Vietnam War during the 1960s. Later, if peers are defined in terms of occupation, then the group does exert an influence on how its members think politically. For example, professionals such as teachers or bankers often have similar political opinions, particularly on matters related to their careers.
Mass media
Much of our political information comes from the mass media: newspapers, magazines, radio, television, and the Internet. The amount of time the average American family watches TV makes it the dominant information source, particularly with the expansion of 24-hour all-news cable channels. Not only does television help shape public opinion by providing news and analysis, but its entertainment programming addresses important contemporary issues that are in the political arena, such as drug use, abortion, and crime. The growth of the Internet is also significant; not only do essentially all-news outlets have their own Web sites, but online bloggers present a broad range of political opinion, information, and analysis.
Heuristics - Shortcuts
Heuristics is the process by which humans use mental short cuts to arrive at decisions. Heuristics are simple strategies that humans, animals, organizations, and even machines use to quickly form judgments, make decisions, and find solutions to complex problems. Often this involves focusing on the most relevant aspects of a problem or situation to formulate a solution. While heuristic processes are used to find the answers and solutions that are most likely to work or be correct, they are not always right or the most accurate. Judgments and decisions based on heuristics are simply good enough to satisfy a pressing need in situations of uncertainty, where information is incomplete. In that sense they can differ from answers given by logic and probability.
Heuristics and Biases in Political Decision Making.
Heuristics have rapidly become a core concept in the study of political behavior. The term heuristic stems from the ancient Greek heuriskein, which means “to discover.” In psychology and political science, the term is used to describe cognitive shortcuts in decision making under uncertainty. The key idea is that decision makers with limited time, information, or resources use such shortcuts, thereby bypassing a certain amount of information to reach appropriate decisions. In this sense, heuristics contrast with classical rational choice. Using heuristics allows efficient decision making but can lead to biases, errors, and suboptimal decisions. Heuristics allow decision makers to draw inferences, to fill in information gaps, and to form an impression of the decision at hand. Indeed, they may be the only way to come to grips with uncertainty, especially when a decision is urgent.
What is ideology?
- A political ideology is a coherent set of views on politics and the role of the government. Consistency over a wide range of issues is the hallmark of a political ideology.
- A set of positions on public issues based on an underlying value system such as equality, traditionalism, and individualism.
- Political ideology means any idea or belief, or coordinated body of ideas or beliefs, relating to the purpose, conduct, organization, function or basis of government and related institutions and activities
- A set of beliefs about politics. Individuals use ideologies as an organizing or filtering device for interpreting events, relationships, and policies.
Types of ideologies
Conservatism: A political ideology that embraces individual opportunity, public order, and traditional values. Over the past few decades, more Americans have self-identified as conservative than as liberal, with moderates sometimes surpassing conservatives in number.
Liberalism: A political ideology that embraces equality, civil rights, and individual liberties. Over the past few decades, fewer Americans have self-identified as liberal than as conservative or moderate.
Libertarianism: A political ideology that embraces individual liberty over state (governmental) authority, both in the realm of economic activity and personal or social activity.
Populism: A political ideology that emphasizes government's role as an agent of the common man, the worker, and the farmer, in struggles against concentrated wealth and power. Historically in the United States, "populist" describes any political movement having popular backing which is also perceived to be acting in the interests of ordinary people rather than elites.
How to identify your ideology
Ideological self-identification: An individual's declaration of affinity with a particular political ideology. People self identify with an ideological label based on numerous factors, so such self identification may or may not match up with standard definitions of that ideology.
Political Ideology Tests
- Pew Research Center: Political Typology Quiz.
- Pro Profs: What Political Ideology Am I?
- The World's Smallest Political Quiz.
What do people think about government and democracy?
- Gallup: U.S. Public Opinion and the Role of Government.
- Pew Research Center: Public Trust in Government: 1958-2022.
Can public opinion be manipulated?
Edward Bernays: Manipulating Public Opinion: The Why and The How.
Misinformation is incorrect or misleading information. It differs from disinformation, which is deliberately deceptive. Rumors are information not attributed to any particular source, and so are unreliable and often unverified, but can turn out to be either true or false. Even if later retracted, misinformation can continue to influence actions and memory. People may be more prone to believe misinformation because they are emotionally connected to what they are listening to or are reading.
- The Economist: How political leaders shape public opinion.
Does everyone's opinion really matter?
The Attentive Public
That part of the public that is attuned to current affairs and its media coverage. Much of the American public is disinterested in politics and policy, so opinion leaders and policy makers must direct their ideas to, and seek support from, the smaller attentive public, rather than the broad, general public.
Voters in Judicial Elections - An Attentive Public or an Uninformed Electorate?
Borrowing from the work of Gabriel Almond, one can argue that the judicial electorate may well be composed of an 'attentive public' whose level of interest and information is sufficient to constitute 'an informed and interested stratum... before whom elite discussion and controversy takes place.' The credibility of such a view of the judicial electorate is assessed in light of sample survey data on registered voters contacted immediately following Oregon's May, 1982 statewide judicial and non-judicial primaries. The evidence suggests that an attentive public conception of the judical electorate may well be an appropriate image to describe elective judicial selection systems.
The Importance of Political Knowledge for Effective Citizenship: Differences Between the Broadcast and Internet Generations.
General political knowledge is a central variable in American politics research. Individuals with high political knowledge exhibit behaviors that are consequential to a well-functioning democracy, including holding more stable political opinions, exhibiting greater ideological constraint, knowing more about political candidates, and being more likely to vote correctly. In this paper, we examine whether the internet revolution, enabling citizens to look up anything at any time, has changed the relative importance of political knowledge in American politics. We show that important generational differences exist between Americans raised during the broadcast era and Americans raised with the presence and accessibility of the internet. Internet access can be a substitute for political knowledge stored in long-term memory, particularly among this younger generation, who may be relying on the internet to store knowledge for them.
Elite Opinion / Opinion Leaders
- How Elites Misread Public Opinion.
- Elite vs. Public Opinion: An Examination of Divergent Views on Immigration.
- Wikipedia: Elite.
- Elite influence on public attitudes about climate policy.
Terminology
public opinion
values
beliefs
liberty
freedom of conscience
equality of opportunity
political ideology
attitude
liberal conservative
libertarian
socialist
political socialization
agents of socialization
- family
- friends
- education
social groups
- race
- ethnicity
- gender
- religion
- party affiliation
elites
political leaders
mass media
marketplace of ideas
stability
change
political knowledge
shortcuts
cues
heuristics
skim and scan
impact on government
- inequity
impact of government
propaganda
measuring public opinion
sample
random sample
sampling error
question wording
social desirability effect
acquiescence bias
selection bias
push poll
bandwagon effect