State Comptroller Susan Combs, as required, released the Biennial Revenue estimate, but there's confusion over how much the shortfall actually is, and what the consequences of the short fall will be.
- Story in the Chron.
Update 1/11/11
Grits for Breakfast has a good summary of how we get to the two separate figures:
Comptroller Susan Combs issued her proclamation today regarding how much money Texas legislators have to spend in the next biennial budget: $72.2 billion, down from $87 billion in the last budget. But the real budget gap is bigger than the $14.8 billion difference between those numbers, because population growth and inflation means the state must spend more to provide services - particularly for education and healthcare. Also, smoke-and-mirrors tricks from past budgets eventually must be paid for (e.g., the $61 million owed to UTMB for prison healthcare services already provided). Bottom line, according to those who estimate such things, if Texas continued spending at current levels, adjusted upward to pay for those (not really optional) services, the budget would reach $99 billion.
So we're basically $15 billion short (with a big, fat, capital "B") if you consider the baseline what was spent in the last budget; $27 billion short if you account for population growth and inflation. (Ross Ramsey at the Texas Tribune walks through all this in more detail, for those interested.)
The $15 billion figure refers to the shortfall between what revenue was projected by the Comptroller in 2009 to be generated by the Texas Economy in 2010 and 2011, and they are projecting will be generated in 2012 and 2013. The $27 billion figure refers to what woudl be necessary to maintain the existing level of services, especially considering that the state has grown considerably in the past few years, and demands on public services have increased as well. You can take you pick for whichever figure serves your purpose.
- Commentary from the liberal leaning Center for Public Policy Priorities.
- Commentary from the conservative leaning Texas Public Policy Foundation.
- Story in the Texas Tribune.