Fall 2024: For GOVT 2306 - Is Texas Becoming a Swing State?

Since the 1990s Texas has been a reliably Republican state. While this isn't the case for local elections in the major metropolitan areas, it is very true for state-wide elections. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994. 

Demographic changes have made Texas more competitive however, at least on paper. Democrats have been hoping to take advantage of these shifts in order to turn Texas from being a red (Republican dominated) state to a purple state (where Republicans and Democrats are equally competitive), if not a blue state (where Democrats dominate).

However, other factors make this more difficult. Chief among them is the fact that Republican participation rates are higher than those of Democrats.

The Democrat's new presidential candidate is polling well in the state, which had led some to wonder if Texas will become a swing state - like Arizona among others. While we wont know until the 2024 election is over, we can look at data in order to see whether this is a possibility.

That's what I want you do find out in this exercise.

You might want to take an early look at some of the material in your textbook on parties and election in order to get a handle on the question. 

In addition, try to become more familiar with the following: 

- party identification
- voter turnout
- voter mobilization
- political culture

I'll add more a we proceed, but get going on this early.

The basics:

- The 1000 word requirement is a minimum, not a maximum. You may write as much as you wish.
- Please use at least three references.
- You may use whatever format you wish.
- I don't use rubrics, so you are free to approach this as you wish, nut be professional.
- If you want an A, be excellent.