A nice look at the factors which help shape public opinion.
That’s a really good question, and it touches on the gap between perception of crime and measured crime rates. People often believe crime is rising even when statistics show it’s falling, and researchers point to several reasons:
1. Media Coverage
- News outlets tend to highlight violent or unusual crimes because they grab attention.
- Social media spreads local incidents widely, making isolated crimes feel more frequent.
- The saying “if it bleeds, it leads” reflects how crime stories dominate headlines.
2. Cognitive Biases
- Availability heuristic: People judge how common something is by how easily they can recall examples. If you’ve recently seen or read about a crime, you assume it’s happening more often.
- Negativity bias: Bad news tends to stick more strongly in memory than good news.
3. Politics and Public Debate
- Crime is often used as a campaign issue. Politicians may emphasize rising crime (or the fear of it) to push for certain policies, regardless of long-term trends.
- Talking points about being "tough on crime" reinforce the idea that crime is getting worse.
4. Personal Experience and Community Factors
- Even if national crime rates drop, certain neighborhoods may see local spikes. People generalize from their immediate surroundings.
- Property crimes like theft or vandalism, which are more visible to individuals, can shape perception more than official statistics.
5. Mistrust of Statistics
- Some believe crime data underreports reality, since not all crimes are reported to police.
- When people hear “crime is down,” they may feel it contradicts their lived experience.
6. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Trends
- Violent crime in the U.S., for example, dropped dramatically from the 1990s to the mid-2010s. But small recent increases (e.g., during 2020–2021) can feel large in the short term, even though overall levels remain much lower than decades ago.
In short: crime feels like it’s increasing because of media, psychology, politics, and local experiences, even though measured rates often show long-term declines.
