From the Dish: The Texas GOP Has Two Right Feet

Andrew Sullivan hits some of the same material discussed below - but adds some links 2306 students might want to check out.

- Click here for his post.

The basic theme seems to be that the gap between the "establishment" and Tea Party wings of the Texas Republican party is very small - if there is a gap at all. M2 students might consider focusing on that issue as a potential paper topic.

Some Texas Republicans are turning Democrat

Only a couple have been featured, and nothing prominent, so no way to know if this turns into a trend, but as the Republican Party in the state becomes more conservative, moderate Republicans might shift parties.

Here are the two:

- Republican turned Democrat runs for Cornyn’s Senate seat
- Texas Judge Switches to Democratic Party: "The Republican Party Left Me" 

Both say the party became too conservative for them. Perhaps they were also driven from the party by conservatives who thing they are RINOs - Republicans in Name Only. Maybe they are opportunists who think the tide might be shifting in favor of Democrats in the state and want to get in early.

Who knows, but its a trend worth following.

The Texas Republican Party benefited when the national Democratic Party became too liberal for moderates in the Texas Democratic Party. Politics is like a pendulum so there's little reason to believe that the pendulum can swing back. No telling yet whether that's whats going on now - but its worth following.

- Wikipedia: Party Switching in the United States.

Jobs, Growth & Freedom Fund

Also in 2305, we covered campaign finance and discussed the rise of political action committees (PACs) as a response to limits on campaign donation from labor unions and corporations in the

We mentioned a couple different types of PACs - Super PACs and Leadership PACs - and I suggested that our junior Senator Ted Cruz very likely has one set up. I was right - its called the Jobs, Growth & Freedom Fund. Its an indication that the senator intends to build influence over others in Congress. The more he has in his PAC, the more money he raise, the more he can distribute to his allies in Congress. Or potential allies.

As a reminder, here is a definition of a Leadership PAC:

Politicians collect money for their own campaigns — we all know that. But many of them also raise a separate pot of money, commonly called a leadership political action committee, to help other politicians. By making donations to members of their party, ambitious lawmakers can use their leadership PACs to gain clout among their colleagues and boost their bids for leadership posts or committee chairmanships. Politicians also use leadership PACs to lay the groundwork for their own campaigns for higher office. And some use their PACs to hire additional staff—sometimes even their family members—and to travel around the country or eat in some of Washington's finest restaurants. The limits on how a politician can spend leadership PAC money are not especially strict.

The Center for Responsive Politics has detail about the money the PAC has on hand and what it has spent:

Total Receipts	$313,323
Total Spent	$129,786
Begin Cash on Hand	$0
End Cash on Hand	$183,537
Debts	$0
Date of last report	June 30, 2013

Click here for info on Ted Cruz.

For more on the PAC, click on these:

- Cruz gears up fundraising machine
- Ted Cruz raises $1.19 million in third quarter.
- A late invitation to a fundraiser - we missed it, sorry.
- Ted Cruz Joins Freshmen Forming Leadership PACs
- The Ted Cruz Filibuster Paid Off — for Ted Cruz!

Does Houstons' city charter need to be revised?

This ran a month ago in the Houston Chronicle.

A couple members of Houston's city council think the current design of Houston's government makes governing the city too difficult and would like to see changes which modernize it. They would like to see a Charter Review Commission established to study possibilities. This seems to me a reaction to the limit on government placed when term limits were added a couple decades back as well as an attempt for the city council to assert more control of city government affairs. Perhaps they believe the mayor is too strong.

This is from an editorial written by the council members:

Over the past few years there has been a great deal of discussion among City Hall insiders about amending the city charter to change term limits for mayor, city controller and council members from two-year to four-year terms.

Two-year terms of office, combined with a six-year limit, hurt city government. The churn of frequent turnover disallows sufficient development of institutional knowledge and process know-how that are critical to effective policymaking. Changing the city charter to provide for two four-year terms for city-elected officials may reduce the number of city elections, but it won't make fundamental changes to the local governance process - including operations and the structure of city government - to address accountability and to meaningfully improve long-range infrastructure, financial, emergency and environmental planning in Houston.

But rather than limit ourselves to considering a term-limits charter change amendment, Houston needs a Charter Review Commission to review, update and propose recommendations to the voters to modernize our charter, the structure and operations of city government, with specific attention paid to the budget process.

. . . The commission's membership should be former city elected officials, academic and legal experts on Texas municipal governance, finance and infrastructure issues as well as local business leaders and entrepreneurs. No current elected city official or employee should be allowed to serve on the commission. The work of the commission should not be a political exercise.

Here are the specific questions they would like to see questions addressed by the commission:

- Should one council meeting per month be held in a city multi-service center in the evening, similar to how city Capital Improvement Process meetings are scheduled?

- Should all of Houston's 16 City Council seats go to single-member districts?

- Should the City of Houston consider a city manager form of government?

- Should the five at-large council members be elected to designated positions based on expertise in certain respective policy areas, such as position No. 1 budget and fiscal affairs, No. 2 public safety, No. 3 business development and international affairs, No. 4 transportation and general mobility, and No. 5 housing, land use and community development?

- Should the City Council nominate and elect the mayor pro tem, as this person would succeed the mayor if the person holding office were unable to serve out an unexpired term? If nominated and elected by council, should the mayor pro tem organize council committees by nominating committee members and chairs/vice chairs to be ratified by the full council?

- Should council members, or at least some designated number of council members, have authority to place items on the council agenda? Should all items approved by a council committee be automatically placed on the full council agenda within 30 days of having been voted out of committee?

- Should a budget calendar, with dates and times set for public discussion, be established earlier in the fiscal year?

- Should district council members have a council district service budget to be able to quickly address minor neighborhood issues?

- Should candidates for the City Council, mayor and city controller be required to attend a class or training session on Houston city government organized by a consortium of local universities as a condition for qualifying for the ballot, similar to the filing fee, signature or residency requirements?

If this happens, it will be very instructive to follow the process as it goes forward.

Prominent conservative David Barton will not primary John Cornyn.

We discussed this technique ideologues in each party use to pull candidates to either extreme and simultaneously punish moderates.

From the National Review:

Controversial Evangelical author David Barton just announced that he won’t challenge Senator John Cornyn in the 2014 Texas Senate primary. On Glenn Beck’s radio show this morning, he told Beck’s listeners that, though the primary is “winnable,” the timing isn’t right for him.

“What can I do to talk you into this?” asked Beck, disappointed.Texas tea-party activists had been hankering for Cornyn to get a primary challenger ever since he removed his name from Mike Lee’s letter urging his Senate colleagues to refuse to support a CR that funded the Affordable Care Act. But finding a candidate with the requisite name recognition, connections, and willingness was a tall order.

Now they are looking for Louie Gohmert to run

Esquire wonders why this is happening.

There's a whole book out now on the subject of primarying.

All you need to know about Perry, Abbott and Davis from the Texas Tribune

I anticipate that they'll do something similar for other politicians, but they provide pages devoted to all the stories compiled for these noted Texas politicos.

- Perrypedia.
- Abbott Archives.
- Davis Digest.

Money beats grassroots

The Texas Tribune reports that Debra Medina, who ran as the Tea Party candidate for Texas governor in 2010, is considering running again, but this time to be Tax Assessor.

But a lack of funds may prevent her from doing so:

Four years after emerging as a Tea Party darling, Medina is eyeing the open race to succeed Comptroller Susan Combs. But as she weighs another run, she knows that donations from grass-roots supporters can take a candidate only so far in Texas.

“I’m hesitant to go out to these meetings and say, ‘I’m running,’ because I’m not going to run underfunded,” said Medina, who predicts that grass-roots supporters could provide 30 percent of what she needs for a campaign.

“I think the other 70 percent is going to have to come from high-wealth individuals who fund campaigns in Texas. There, it’s not coming,” Medina said.

Her comments underscore the extent to which wealthy donors play an outsize role in Texas elections, where there are no limits on how much an individual can donate to a candidate for a state office. With the majority of voters spread among several large media markets, running a statewide campaign is prohibitively expensive.

It's a reminder of who determines who wins state-wide office in Texas.

Medina’s campaign for governor came on the heels of the birth of the Tea Party movement. Though Gov. Rick Perry, who ultimately won re-election, quickly embraced many of the movement’s views of limited government, some voters believed it conflicted with his record, and they turned to Medina in the Republican primary, according to Mark Jones, chairman of political science at Rice University in Houston.

“There’s a certain level of support she has out there,” Jones said. “There are people who remember her and identify with that wing of the party.”

In July, Medina reported having $55,000 in her campaign account. Two Republicans already running for comptroller, state Sen. Glenn Hegar, of Katy, and state Rep.Harvey Hilderbran, of Kerrville, reported war chests of $1.8 million and $1 million, respectively. Former state Rep. Raul Torres, a Republican, is also a candidate and Democrat Michael Collier, a retired accountant, has said he may run for the position as well.

Written Assignment #7 - GOVT 2306 - 11 week online class only

Attorney General Greg Abbott has announced that he is running for governor. Media reports indicate he has already a substantive campaign war chest. This suggests that he has a huge advantage over his potential opponents, but it also suggests whose interests he is most attuned to.

The link above gives you an idea who has donated to his campaign so far. Here's additional data:

- Project Vote Smart.
- Ballotpedia.
- Capital Tonight.
- Influence Explorer.

There are more places to get information so surf around.

Abbott has already staked out his positions on different issues - which he has already developed over time as Attorney General. For this week's writing assignment I want you consider what influence campaign contributions might have on either the positions he has taken, or on the fact that Abbott has received these contributions rather than someone else.

To what degree are the issues on the agenda in the state of Texas influenced by the money that flows through the process? Can you offer proof that it does, or evidence that it does not?

You know the rules.

Next year's midterm contests expected to cost around $3.5 billion

Required reading from the National Journal:

A decade after Sens. John McCain and Russ Feingold spearheaded sweeping legislation to reform the campaign-finance system, a series of judicial and legislative setbacks have derailed any hopes its original sponsors had of curbing the influence and amount of money spent on politics.

Instead, the incredible explosion of money in federal elections demonstrates that McCain-Feingold was a speed bump, at best, on the way to a dramatic growth curve that suggests next year's contests will cost nearly $3.5 billion.

All told, candidates running for a seat in the House of Representatives spent more than $923 million in 2012, while candidates running for Senate seats dished out $587 million, according to new data compiled for the new edition of Vital Statistics on Congress, a joint publication of the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution. That's more than eight times the amount House and Senate candidates spent in 1980. Senate candidates spent twice what they did a decade ago, in 2002.

Some random items on the Obama Budget

- The NYT has a chronology of the budgetting process so far this year.

- And a graphic which compares a variety of budgets, including Obama's.

- The NYT states this proposal puts entitlements on the table.

- The Washington Post points out that it spends far more on the elderly than on the young.

- Yahoo News runs through some of the more unusual tax increases it proposes.

- Democrats are concerned that cuts to Social Security will hurt them at the polls in 2014.

An early look at the 2014 and 2016 elections

According to a recent Quinnipiac Poll, Rubio, Christie, Ryan, Paul and Jeb Bush split support among Republicans for the presidency.And Democrats have an 8 point edge over Republicans for the US House. This is a generic poll, but it suggests Democrats might have an outside chance to take over the House. The key word is "outside."

Some numbers behind the split among Republicans over immigration reform

Some factions within the Republican Party favor paths to citizenship while other - notably the Tea Party, by large numbers - do not. Since the Tea Party contains many of the party's activists, there are risks to running for office as a pro-immigration Republican.

From the FWST: George P. Bush to run for land commissioner

From what I can see, this is the first announced candidate for the 2014 Texas election. His Hispanic heritage - backed by the political machine that surrounds the Bush family - is intended to help lure the Latino vote to the Republican Party. His Uncle W did well with the Hispanic community when he ran for governor in the 90s.

From the story:

George Prescott Bush filed the paperwork Tuesday to run for Texas land commissioner next year, hoping to use a little-known but powerful post to continue his family's political dynasty in one of the country's most conservative states.


A Spanish-speaking attorney and consultant based in Fort Worth, Bush is considered a rising star among conservative Hispanics, and his political pedigree is hard to match.

He is the grandson of former President George H.W. Bush, the nephew of former President George W. Bush and the son of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- often mentioned as a 2016 presidential hopeful.

Bush unveiled a campaign website with a "George P. Bush for Land Commissioner" logo and a three-minute video in which he says, "Texas is an exceptional state because we as Texans are exceptional."

Well, now we know. He has already attracted a large number of contributors, which might suggest he'll have little trouble winning, but are Texans tired of the Bush name?

[Current Land Commissioner Jerry] Patterson said he believes that running with the Bush name is "both a blessing and a curse."


Some critics accused Bush of cynically shopping for the most politically opportunistic Texas office rather than showing serious interest in one.

But Patterson said that was a mere byproduct of Bush not being ready to make an announcement.

"That's the problem you have when your last name is Bush," Patterson said. "It's impossible to control the message."

From the Texas Tribune: Texas Judges Must Face Voters Without Heeding Politics

2306 classes will start looking at the Texas Judiciary soon and we will begin to wrestle with one of the larger issues associated with it: the fact that judges in the state are elected and are therefore subject to political pressures. Justice is supposed to be blind, but the need to campaign for votes - and to fund raise in order to campaign well - makes it difficult for judges to escape the insinuation that they are swayed by elections.

Texas Tribune looks at this issue: Can you be both a good politicians and a good judge? Are the qualities that make you the former, make it difficult to be the latter? Specifically, will the fact that members of the Texas Supreme Court are elected to office impact their decision on school finance in the state?

Here comes a little test. Earlier this year, a state district judge in Austin ruled that the state’s financing of public schools was unconstitutionally inequitable and inadequate, and illegally creates a de facto statewide property tax. That ruling is widely expected to be appealed to the Texas Supreme Court and then, based on the court’s decision, to the state Legislature for a remedy. 

The political timing is sensitive. Three of the nine justices — Chief Justice Wallace Jefferson and Justices Phil Johnson and Jeffrey Boyd — will be up for election in 2014 (assuming each decides to run). Six of the nine were initially appointed to the court by Gov. Rick Perry, whose administration lost the case in district court. 

The judges are supposed to ignore all of that. Are they aware of it? Maybe, according to Dale Wainwright, who resigned from the Texas Supreme Court last year and now practices law in Austin. But you have to be a judge and hope the politics work out. 

“Maybe we’d know an issue was getting a lot of attention,” Wainwright said when asked if judges are aware of the politics surrounding a case. “It might be that we’d know that by the number of people in the courtroom. When you have that kind of a turnout, you know there’s some interest.” 

However, he added, “Our training is to separate politics from the law.”

Senate Republican to not run for re-election due the Senate's dysfunction and polarization

More on a theme we are following in 2305:

Senator Mike Johanns, a Nebraska Republican who is in his first term, announced on Monday that he would not seek re-election next year, the fifth lawmaker to bow out of a Senate that has become increasingly polarized and dysfunctional.

Mr. Johanns, a soft-spoken former Nebraska governor and agriculture secretary in the George W. Bush administration, appeared well positioned to be re-elected and was not on any Democratic target list. But last year, he angrily criticized conservative groups that tried to step in and influence the Senate election in his state. And his efforts as part of the “Gang of Eight” to broker a bipartisan accord on deficit reduction proved fruitless.

State of the State Address 2013

The Austin American Statesman details the Governor's address before the legislature yesterday.

The Texas Tribune notes that this years' address was more tame than the previous ones and wonders if Perry's recent low poll numbers were a factor. He is still expected to run for governor again in 2014.

A window of opportunity seems to have opened for comprehensive immigration reform

After being stalled for years - and being virulently opposed by some - comprehensive immigration reform seems poised to be quickly passed into law. Here are a variety of stories that try to figure out how this happened, and what the consequences are likely to be:

- The Washington Post describes the "gang of eight," the bipartisan group of Senators who worked out a ill in the Senate. The New York Times covers similar ground.

- They also discuss the more liberal alternative likely to be offered by the President, and the measured reception the Senate plan received in the House.

- Forbes wonders if this will end the alliance between the Tea Party and the Republicans - which makes me wonder if Democrats see this as a wedge issue that could weaken Republicans prior to the 2014 election.

- Speculation exists that the Republican Party has shifted on the issue because of the overwhelming number of Latino voters that voted for Obama in 2012. Many were turned of by the tough talk about immigration. There are indications that the party's positions on social issues might lure Latinos their way.

- But not everyone agrees that that is likely. David Frum does not think the deal will help Republicans gain Latino voters.

More to come as the issue heats up.

No word yet on where Texas stands on this, but we tend to be lenient on immigration matters. We have to.

For Data Freaks

Which includes me - the final (as of yet) 2012 US House Popular Vote totals. In a spreadsheet no less.

The vote in each district is totalled and broken down by party.

As pointed out earlier, Democrats actually got more votes (1,362,351) than Republicans, but Republicans maintained their lead. The reason is argued to be gerrymandering. Republican success in the 2010 election - when they were able to control a large number of state legislatures and dominate the redistricting process following the 2010 census paid dividends. And it will continue to do so through the decade.

One study argues that Democrats would have to outperform Republicans by 7 percentage points in order to take contrrol of the House. This will certainly not happen in 2014, when Republican turnout will - if history continues to be a guide - overwhelm that of Democrats.

Texas Senator John Cornyn set to move up to #2 in Senate Republican leadership team

Politico and The Hill report that Texas Senator John Cornyn is set to become the Republican Party Whip in the Senate - which means he is second in command of the party, just behind the party leader - the minority leader - which will continue to be Mitch McConnell.

Without a race for the whip’s job, the Senate Republican leadership hierarchy will stay the same. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will keep his job and Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Senate GOP Conference Vice Chairman Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) are expected to win easy reelection to their posts.
Politico points out that Cornyn is up for re-election in 2014, that is certain to affect his behavior during the 113th Congress in order to prevent a primary challenger within his party. Expect him to tilt to the right - but this will be worth monitoring.

The Washington Monthly finds the appointment curious since Cornyn has been in charge of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and was tasked with leading his party's efforts in taking over the Senate from Democrats - but it he was unable to despite having several factors which should have made this easy. They ask if this was social promotion.

Local Election Results - 2012

For full county results click here:

- Harris County.
- Brazoria County.

FYI:

Brazoria County voted
Romney - 70,684
Obama - 34,327

Harris County voted
Romney - 584,866
Obama - 585,451

The Houston Chronicle offers additional ways to access local election results.