Thursday, May 16, 2019

Why Cities Are Where They Are

Worth a look. Helps define what makes cities unique.

Texas/Texas State/Texas Geography/Texas Counties

oh c'mon. This is fun. Sing along if you can.

The Cumberland Road

Image result for the national road

History of the National Road | GATV5



For more:

- The Cumberland Narrows.
- Nemacolin's Path.
- Braddock's Road.
- The Cumberland Road

Colonial Roads around 1750




For more:

- King's Highway (Charleston to Boston).
- Fall Line Road.
- Upper Road.
- Great Valley Road.
- Boston Post Road.

ANATOMY OF A ROAD 1960s ROAD AND HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION FILM 78004

I'm really getting into these. The growth of roads across the US fascinates me. Expect more.

It's also a great example of federalism in action - especially fiscal federalism.

From the Dallas News: How police felt stonewalled by Dallas Diocese at every turn in sex abuse investigation

An example of due process, specifically a search and seizure. The back and forth between Dallas police and the Diocese interests me.

- Click here for the article.

An affidavit Dallas police used to obtain a search warrant Wednesday to raid Dallas Catholic Diocese offices laid out allegations against five priests and suggested the church subverted police efforts to obtain more information.

The affidavit, signed by Detective David Clark, who is working full-time on sex abuse allegations within the Diocese, sought to seize Diocese records because the church hadn’t handed over all the records it had about allegations against the priests.

All five priests are on the Diocese’s list of 31 “credibly accused” priests, which the church released in January. That list included only accusations against priests that the Diocese concluded were credible after a review by former law enforcement officials and the Diocean Review Board.

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

From the Texas Municipal League: How Cities Work

A great, informative pamphlet put together by the interest group that represents cities at the state and national level.

- Click for it.

Click here for:

- The Texas Municipal League.
- Legislative Updates.
- National League of Cities.
- State Municipal Leagues.

From the Texas Tribune: Analysis: The Texas Legislature’s unexciting, no drama, very humdrum session

As seems to be intended.

- Click here for the article.

Are you not bored?

And do you not remember that this is what the governor and legislative leaders promised the people of the great state of Texas in January?

They said they were going to get along, that they were all on the same page, that this would be a meat-and-potatoes or bread-and-butter session. (Choose your preferred food group, if it’s in there.) In conversation, elected officials — the Republicans in particular — said they wanted to govern without looking like they had been driving around in a Washington, D.C., clown car. This was going to be a serious, no-nonsense legislative session.

They weren’t kidding.

And for the most part, that’s what they’ve delivered. No "bathroom bill" to bring out the armies of culture warriors. Education bills without fights, or really any conversation at all, about vouchers or other ways to use public money on private schools. Efforts to fan the immigration flames have been relatively scarce, unlike the days of "sanctuary cities" legislation (once deemed an emergency issue by Gov. Greg Abbott). Compared with other states in recent months, this Legislature’s abortion law disputes have been muted. Other than false claims that an election bill would prevent old people from carpooling to the polls, the perennial skirmishes over voting rights have been side issues.

Sure, there are battles. That voter legislation, Senate Bill 9, has plenty of material for snarling, snarky debate. And the state’s misbegotten effort to purge noncitizens from voter rolls ended with a court settlement and, probably, the busted gubernatorial appointment of Texas Secretary of State David Whitley, who oversaw that fiasco. But those wrangles haven’t reached the pitch of years past and certainly haven’t been loud enough to invoke comparisons with Congress.

100 Years on the Lincoln Highway

This might be a bit cheesy, but I'm fascinated by the gradual process by which roads were built in across the US. From what I can tell, this was the first attempt to create a highway coast to coast. The effort pulled together a variety of governing and political forces. Take note of Eisenhower's involvement in the effort, as well as local governments.


Tuesday, May 14, 2019

From the Texas Tribune: "People were giving us lip service": Texas cities' legislative efforts have struggled this year

For 2306's look at the relationship between cities and states.

- Click here for the article.

The interest group representing Texas cities used to be one of the most powerful legislative forces at the Capitol. This session, it has become the GOP’s most prominent adversary.

Its members have been harangued at hearings. Targeted by a proposed ban on “taxpayer-funded lobbying.” And seen multiple proposals sail ahead over their protests.

When, around March, one mayor inquired about the reasoning for a controversial provision in a property tax bill, he said an adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott suggested, “You reap what you sow.”

The message was clear, said McKinney Mayor George Fuller: Local officials had been obstructionists in the past.

Although the antagonistic relationship between Texas cities and the state has been building for years, this session has reached the fever pitch of all-out legislative assault, Austin Mayor Steve Adler said in April. Typically, the Texas Municipal League tracks bills it opposes that are gaining momentum in the Legislature. This session, the group had amassed more than 150.

Among them was a bill regarding cable franchise fees authored by state Rep. Dade Phelan, a Beaumont Republican and chair of the powerful State Affairs Committee. After the Texas Municipal League warned its members the proposal could cut into cities’ revenues, Phelan had a concise response for the group, which represents 1,156 of Texas’ roughly 1,200 cities.

“When you are in a hole — you should stop digging,” Phelan recommended in an email obtained by The Texas Tribune.

In an interview, Phelan said he harbored no animus toward the organization but took umbrage with its opposition to legislation his constituents want. The sentiment is widely shared in the Legislature, Phelan said, as evidenced by the support bills on taxpayer-funded lobbying and franchise fees have garnered.

Mentioned in the article:

Lobbying
Governor
Mayor
Republicans in the Legislature
State Affairs Committee
Texas Municipal League
model legislation
conservative think tanks
progressives
Lt. Governor
property taxes
local budgets
House Speaker


Monday, May 13, 2019

From the Houston Chronicle: Three articles on the state pof political parties in the state

GOP fights to keep Texas red amid rifts.

Analysts say the Texas Republican Party is at a critical juncture heading into the 2020 presidential election, with the possibility that an increasingly diverse population will make Texas a swing state. So far the risk is remote, but the number of people of color in Texas is rising. According to the Texas Demographic Center, people of color accounted for 58 percent of the state's population, up from 47 percent in 2000.

November's dismal election results for Republicans were a wake-up call, party officials say. Cruz barely pulled off a victory over O'Rourke, and the party lost two state Senate seats and 12 state House seats to the Democrats.

"I'm warning people: If we don't do the hard work that we must, we will not, nor would we, deserve to retain control of Texas," said James Dickey, chairman of the Republican Party of Texas. "We have to continue to earn the votes of rural Texas and increase the numbers in the major metro areas that are growing the fastest."

As Texas Republicans attempt to widen their reach, they're grappling with the party's standard-bearer, Trump, whose anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim rhetoric has emboldened some of the more extreme members of the party.

Democrats flex in Texas Legislature, with an eye on 2020.

After picking up 14 seats in the midterm elections, Democrats are using their increased numbers this session to derail key Republican priorities in a state where the left has long been out of power.

In flexing their political muscle, Democrats have blocked Gov. Greg Abbott’s embattled secretary of state nominee and helped stop a sales tax hike that GOP leaders had championed in order to cut property taxes.

"This session more than other sessions, the Democratic caucus has stuck together more. We’ve communicated a lot better,” said Senate Democratic Leader José Rodríguez of El Paso. "I think the midterm elections may have had something to do with the caucus being much more united."

Texas House passes bill to allow more third-party candidates.

With the memory of a heated 2018 election cycle still fresh, Texas House Republicans and Democrats were divided this week over how to treat third-party candidates who have the potential to siphon votes from the major parties.

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Cities, School Districts and Special Districts in Brazoria County

I copied these from the Brazoria County Elections Page. They all has elections last week on May 4. The links take you to the ballots presented to the voters.

School Districts
- Alvin ISD
- Angleton ISD
- Brazosport ISD
- Columbia-Brazoria ISD
- Danbury ISD
- Pearland ISD
- Sweeny ISD

Municipalities
- Alvin (City)
- Angleton (City)
- Brazoria
- Brookside Village
- Clute
- Freeport
- Iowa Colony
- Jones Creek
- Oyster Creek
- Pearland (City)
- Richwood
- Surfside Beach
- Sweeny (City)

Other Districts
- Sweeny Hospital
- Brazoria County Emergency Services District No. 6


From The Texas Tribune: Renewable energy proponents brace for last-minute attack on tax breaks for wind and solar

Tax breaks for wind and solar energy are discussed in the policy chapters of 2306.

- Click here for the article.

In the waning days of the 86th legislative session, as House and Senate lawmakers spend hours debating and voting on bills, wind and solar groups are watching for any last-minute attempt to make renewable projects ineligible for a local tax abatement program that benefits all types of industrial and commercial developments.

They have good reason to be on high alert.

Ahead of the legislative session, the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation — the Austin-based policy institute that is an ideological beacon for many Republicans — launched a crusade against renewable energy subsidies at all levels of government. Locally, the foundation has zeroed in on property tax abatements granted under chapters 312 and 313 of the state tax code that cities, counties, school districts and other taxing entities have wielded for almost two decades to lure oil refineries and — more recently — wind farms alike.

The crux of the foundation’s argument against renewable energy subsidies is that they distort the electric market, leading to artificially low prices.

The billions in taxpayer-funded subsidies that have been awarded to renewable projects at the local, state and federal level — $16 billion, according to the foundation — “has allowed renewable energy generators ... to sell their electricity at whatever price they need to get it onto the market, which drives prices low, into negative territory,” Bill Peacock, the foundation’s vice president for research, said in an interview earlier this year.

Still, lawmakers are moving to renew both programs; Chapter 312 would otherwise expire this year, followed by 313 in 2022.

No legislation has been filed that would strip renewables from the abatement programs. But lawmakers always have the option of proposing last-minute amendments to bills just before the House or Senate vote on them.

And that’s what Jeffrey Clark, president of the pro-renewables Advanced Power Alliance, is expecting.
Mentioned in the article:

- 86th legislative session.
- property tax.
- tax abatements
- Texas Public Policy Foundation.
- state tax code.
- subsidies.
- Advanced Power Alliance.
- last-minute amendments to bills.
- University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute.
- corporate welfare.
- school districts.
- Todd Staples.
- Texas Oil and Gas Association.

From the Texas Tribune: Where is Texas’ growing population coming from?

For 2306: a look at the changing demographics in the state.

- Click here for the article.

The state gained 187,545 people from migration between July 2017 and July 2018 — even after accounting for people leaving the state, according to U.S. Census data.

In 2018, the majority of migrants to Texas — 104,976 people — came from other countries, with the rest arriving from other U.S. states.

That marked the second straight year that international migration into the state exceeded domestic migration, said Luke Rogers, chief of the population estimate branch for the U.S. Census Bureau.

Before 2017, domestic migration dominated the story of Texas growth: From 2005 to 2013, 4.8 million of the 5.9 million of people who moved to Texas came from other states, and since 2010 people from other states accounted for 29% of the state's population growth, compared to the 23% that came from international migration. That flipped in 2017, and between 2017 and 2018, international migration increased by 28%, while domestic migration grew by a more modest 22%.

“I think it varies from year to year,” Rogers said. “There are a lot of years going back to 2000 where net domestic migration is larger than the international migration, but there are also years the other way around where international migration is larger than than domestic migration.”

The recent uptick ended a decade-long decline in international migration — particularly from Latin America — that began with the 2008 recession, Potter said.

Meanwhile, Texas has seen an increase in migration from Asian countries, particularly China and India. Potter said around 45% of international migrants came from Asia in 2016.

“Over the 2000s, we saw a pretty significant opening of China and kind of increasing number of Indian students coming over to study,” Potter said. “And I think what happens frequently is once they finish studying, they are able to get sponsored by a company for a work visa … Once they get a green card, then they can start sponsoring their family to come over as well.


Mentioned in the article:

- Texas Demographic Center.

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

From the NCSL: State Partisan Composition

- Click here for the article.

As of April 1st, 2019, the following information is correct:

Legislators: There are 7,383 total legislative seats throughout the states.

Chamber control: While there are 99 total chambers in states because Nebraska is unicameral, we do not include Nebraska’s legislature in this chart because members are elected on a nonpartisan basis. Therefore, this represents partisan control in 98 chambers.

Legislative Control: When the same party holds both chambers, that party has legislative control. When the chambers are held by different parties, it is divided. Nebraska is not included.

State Control: When the same party holds both legislative chambers and the governorship, that party has state control. When any of those three points of power is held by another party, state control is divided. This is based on the number of members of each party, and does not take into account coalitions that might change effective control. Nebraska is not included.

Click to View Power BI Application

From Ballotpedia: National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

- Click here for the article.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an interstate compact to award member state's presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote. The NPVIC would go into effect if states representing at least 270 electoral college votes adopt the legislation.[1][2]

Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution gives states the authority to determine how their electoral votes will be awarded: "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors…." This compact does not abolish the electoral college system; rather, the compacts awards all of the electoral votes from the member states to the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide.[1]

From Open Secrets: Obama-tied operatives and Biden supporters launch $60 million ‘dark money’ group

- Click here for the article.

A new “dark money” group is labeling itself the strategy center for Democrats in 2020.

The recently-launched Future Majority will spend up to $60 million to target voters in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio in the 2020 election, helping Democrats craft messaging that they are fighting for working people while countering conservative talking points, according to Politico.

The 501(c)(4) nonprofit, run by Democratic strategist Mark Riddle, is not required to disclose its donors. The group will reportedly “spend money through PACs,” potentially feeding a growing trend of dark money-funded super PACs spending to influence elections.

Earlier this year, Democratic fundraiser Matthew Tompkins formed a super PAC called America’s Future Majority Fund PAC. He is also listed as the custodian of records for an identically-named nonprofit run by Riddle and is listed as governor on incorporation records for Future Majority. The two long worked together at New Leaders Council (NLC), a nonprofit that helps recruit young progressive leaders.

The revolving door between the new nonprofit and NLC doesn’t end there. Incorporation records show Future Majority’s incorporator is Cathedral Strategies LLC, a limited-liability company with a paper trail linked to Brett Avery Seifried, who was general counsel of NLC.

With Tompkins, links between Future Majority and presidential contender Joe Biden begin to emerge. The Hill reported that Tompkins recently launched a pro-Biden super PAC, titled For the People PAC, with the aim of raising tens of millions of dollars to support Biden’s campaign.

The group hasn’t emerged in FEC filings yet, but the Washington Free Beacon reported that Tompkins established a committee called Biden PAC on April 26. The same day it was established, the PAC renamed itself to G Street and removed Tompkins as its treasurer.

Several of the operatives tied to Future Majority have long histories in former President Barack Obama’s political circles.

From Governing: How Many Local Governments Is Too Many?

- Click here for the article.

It’s not uncommon for one metropolitan area to be home to dozens of local governments. In lots of those places, mayors and other local officials often lament the difficulties of having to coordinate with so many cities, towns and counties.

There’s no agreed-upon definition for this local government "fragmentation," but most researchers measure it by the number of governments per capita. We used that measurement, along with the number of governments per square mile, to see which metro areas and counties are the most fragmented.

Our calculations are based on the latest Census of Governments survey, which is conducted every five years and counted 38,779 cities, counties, towns and other general-purpose local governments (excluding special districts).

According to the study, the Houston metropolitan area has 133 local governments.

From the Washington Post: Who are all the political appointees in Donald Trump’s administration?

- Click here for the article.

Who are all the political appointees in President Trump’s administration?

No one knows because a Government Accountability Office report says that “there is no single source of data on political appointees serving in the executive branch that is publicly available, comprehensive, and timely” for Trump’s and at least the previous two administrations.

Why do we need to know?

“The public has an interest in knowing the political appointees serving and this information would facilitate congressional oversight and hold leaders accountable,” GAO said. “As of March 2019, no agency in the federal government is required to publicly report comprehensive and timely data on political appointees serving in the executive branch.”

GAO issued the report after members of Congress asked the agency how well political appointees are identified and agencies implement their ethics programs. Those questions point to problems on both those fronts in Trump’s administration. He has run through top level appointees at a dizzying pace and came into office doused by an ethical rain that has only grown heavier at the White House and in the agencies.

“Providing a simple list of who the President has appointed to senior positions in the government would make it easier to hold those officials accountable for policy decisions and compliance with ethics and transparency laws,” said House Oversight and Reform Chairman Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.), who requested the report along with Democratic Sens. Gary C. Peters (Mich.) and Thomas R. Carper (Del.).

A list would foster accountability by providing insight into “where the channels of political influence spreads,” said Don Kettl, a public affairs professor at the University of Texas and academic director of its Washington Center. “This isn’t to say that there shouldn’t be political influence on key policy decisions — that’s why we have elections. But we surely need to know where those channels flow.”

GAO urged Congress to consider legislation requiring administrations to publish the names of political appointees in the executive branch. To show what Trump thinks of that suggestion, his Executive Office of the President (EOP) ignored a GAO request for comment on its draft report.

- GAO: FEDERAL ETHICS PROGRAMS Government-wide Political Appointee Data and Some Ethics Oversight Procedures at Interior and SBA Could Be Improved

Thursday, May 2, 2019

From Lawfare: Constitutional Hardball and Congress’s Oversight Authority

Key words: Separated Powers, Checks and Balances

- Click here for the article.

Over the past week, the president’s statements and the executive branch’s actions in response to congressional oversight requests suggest that the executive branch may have decided to adopt a strategy of maximal resistance to oversight across the board. If so, this would be a dramatic break from the executive branch’s approach to responding to congressional requests for at least the past half-century. Implementing a strategy designed to stonewall meaningful oversight across the board would also be a form of constitutional hardball that significantly increases the stakes in this contest of will between the branches.

At least since Watergate, if not for longer, the executive branch has recognized the important role congressional oversight plays in the constitutional system and has understood itself to have a constitutional obligation to accommodate legitimate oversight requests from Congress. This long-standing executive branch perspective is embodied in a 1982 memorandum to all agency heads regarding how to respond to congressional requests, often referred to as the Reagan memo. This memorandum, which remains in force, explicitly states that it is executive branch policy “to comply with congressional requests for information to the fullest extent consistent with the constitutional and statutory obligations of the Executive Branch.”

While the Reagan memo recognizes there may be times when it is necessary to withhold information to protect important executive branch confidentiality interests, it emphasizes the expectation that such impasses should be rare and limited to “compelling circumstances.” Instead, the Reagan memo underscores the importance of engaging in a good faith negotiation to accommodate the interests of both branches: “Historically, good faith negotiations between Congress and the Executive Branch have minimized the need for invoking executive privilege, and this tradition of accommodation should continue as the primary means of resolving conflicts between the Branches.” This process of good faith negotiation has become known as the accommodation process.
- United States v. American Telephone & Telegraph Company.
-

From U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary: Hate Crimes and the Rise of White Nationalism

Key Words: House of Representatives, Oversight, Congressional Committees, Hearings. Nationalism

- Click here for the link.

Oversight of the U.S. DOJ Report by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller

Monday, April 22, 2019

From Vox: The Supreme Court just took up a set of very big cases on LGBTQ rights

Key terms: equal protection, supreme court, ideology, social policy, writ of certiorari

- Click here for the article.

The US Supreme Court on Monday agreed to take a trio of cases that will, collectively, help decide the future of gay and transgender rights in America.

The Court agreed to hear three cases that have to do with whether existing federal bans on sex discrimination in the workplace also prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity. In the consolidated Altitude Express Inc. v. Zarda and Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia, a skydiving instructor and a child welfare services coordinator, respectively, said they were fired for being gay. And in R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes v. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, a funeral home employee said she was fired because she came out as transgender.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), a federal agency, has said that Title VII of the Civil Rights Act prohibits workplace discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. The law doesn’t explicitly prohibit anti-gay or anti-trans discrimination, instead banning discrimination based on sex. But advocates argue that bans on sex discrimination should cover anti-gay and anti-trans discrimination as well, because discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity is fundamentally rooted in expectations about a person’s sex.

Some lower courts have agreed with the stance. In R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes v. EEOC, for instance, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals declared, “It is analytically impossible to fire an employee based on that employee’s status as a transgender person without being motivated, at least in part, by the employee’s sex.”

But some courts have also ruled against LGBTQ rights — like the 11th Circuit Court’s ruling that “discharge for homosexuality is not prohibited by Title VII.” President Donald Trump’s administration has also argued that Title VII doesn’t prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity.

The Supreme Court will now settle the question. It’s unclear how they’ll rule: The Court now has a likely conservative majority on these issues, since former Justice Anthony Kennedy — a strong ally of LGBTQ rights, despite his largely conservative record — retired in 2018. That could be bad news for LGBTQ rights.

From the Texas Tribune: Senate bill would let felons run for office in Texas only if they've been pardoned

- Click here for the article.

A bill before the Texas Senate would allow felons to seek public office only if they have received pardons.

Current election code says a candidate who has been convicted of a felony must either be pardoned “or otherwise released from the resulting disabilities” — but it doesn’t define resulting disabilities. Senate Bill 466 would remove that clause.

"When someone has committed and has been convicted of a felony ... they have broken their pact with society in a very egregious manner and should not have certain rights restored," the bill's author, state Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper, said during a Senate committee hearing earlier this month.

The legislation is in response to a felon who ran for Austin City Council last year.

Lewis Conway Jr.’s eligibility was challenged because of the ambiguous term. He and his lawyers argued that since he had served his sentence, completed his parole and had his voting rights reinstated, he was “released from the resulting disabilities.” The city clerk allowed him to stay on the ballot, but he didn’t win the District 1 seat.

“When are we going to embrace compassion in regards to electoral politics and agree that a precedent has been set?” Conway said in response to the bill. “Why are we not looking at including people in the electoral process as opposed to excluding people?”

Conway said he thinks more people are engaging with the criminal justice system and realizing that punishment isn’t serving the community.

“There’s a hard line of folks who believe that once you have been in prison, that you are no longer human,” he said, “but then there’s a great number of folks who realize that the criminal justice system pervasively impacts people of color — disproportionately.”

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

From the Texas Tribune: Closed on Sundays: A guide to some of Texas' confusing alcohol regulations

Key terms: rulemaking, interest groups, sunset advisory commission, executive agencies, regulatory agencies, federalism, judicial federalism, lobbying, bill making

- Click here for the article.

This session, the Texas Legislature is biting into a once-in-a-dozen years opportunity to overhaul alcohol laws through the Sunset process. Every session, 20 to 30 state agencies are reviewed by the Sunset Advisory Commission, a state agency in charge of evaluating the effectiveness and worth of other state agencies. And this session, it’s the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission’s turn.

. . . In a process where virtually any reform could be contemplated, here are seven unusual Texas alcohol laws.

Hating on Walmart
Liquor and blood
Sunday sales
Distributors rule
Cash on the barrelhead
Beer to go
Interest groups mentioned in the story:

- Wholesale Beer Distributors
- Beer Alliance of Texas
- Texas Craft Brewers Guild
- Texas Package Stores Association
- Distilled Spirits Council

Monday, April 15, 2019

From the Dallas Morning News: Will fixes to Texas’ broken Medicaid system live or die? Patient groups, insurers draw battle lines

Key terms: Health and Human Services, cooperative federalism, poverty,

- Click here for the article.

A package of bipartisan bills to fix the state's broken Medicaid system got their first hearing Tuesday, setting the stage for a behind-the-scenes battle between influential doctor and patient groups that want change and health care companies that profited from the status quo.

Those bills came in response to an investigation by The Dallas Morning Newslast year that showed how companies that Texas pays to care for millions of sick, disabled and extremely poor people were skimping on treatments and medical equipment to boost profits under a program called "managed care."

A House effort, led by Rep. Sarah Davis, R-Houston, seeks major overhauls. Her bill would broadly expand protections for patients who are denied treatments and extend the state's power to monitor and penalize managed care companies that fail to meet certain standards.

The Senate is taking a more reserved approach, beefing up the way Texas handles patient complaints and cutting red tape for about 6,000 families with medically complex kids who were haphazardly forced into managed care more than two years ago.

Committees in both chambers heard hours of testimony on those bills, almost none of it in opposition.
But despite that public support, patient advocates worry the biggest changes, such as those included in Davis' bill, may already be doomed.

Rep. James Frank, R-Wichita Falls, is the new chairman of the House Human Services Committee, which may decide whether these bills live or die. He told the committee he expects tweaks but hopes to "get the best of these to the floor."

"We will pass, hopefully, some very good [managed care] bills this session," he said.

That's a stark contrast to the resistance patient advocates are hearing in private, says Hannah Mehta, who leads Protect TX Fragile Kids, a group of parents that fought back when lawmakers forced their children into managed care.

"We were told we should treat this as if this is the only managed care hearing we'll get," she said, expressing concern that Davis' bill may not make it out of Frank's committee.

Mehta says that's what she was told by Frank's chief of staff, Jim Johnson, before Tuesday's hearing.
Reached by phone, Johnson told The News, "I don't recall that that's what I said." He declined further comment.

From the Houston Chronicle: Texas lawmakers propose major reforms for $44B school endowment

Key Terms: education funding, plural executive, SBOE, legislature,

- Click here for the article.

Lawmakers are proposing a wide range of fixes for the state’s public school endowment, which has lost out on billions in growth during the past decade while paying out less to schoolchildren.

One bipartisan bill backed by high-powered legislators would restore the State Board of Education’s control over nearly all of the investments for the $44 billion Texas Permanent School Fund, reverting to the way it was before a 2001 law change.

Another would allow the School Land Board, which now controls about $10 billion of the endowment, to double the amount it can send annually directly to schools — up to $600 million. Yet another would take most of the money away from the feuding boards and create a new nine-member governing body appointed by the governor to decide how the endowment invests and distributes its dollars.

In a year-long investigation, “Broken Trust,” the Houston Chronicle found that the while endowment is far larger than it was 20 years ago, it has grown more slowly than many comparable funds. And it has been paying out less to schools than it did in the previous 20 years in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Last year, the fund distributed only 2.8 percent of its value — roughly half the share paid out by many endowments. If it had paid out 5 percent of a four-year average market value, as many endowments try to, Texas schools would have received $720 million more in 2018.

From Governing: Marital Rape Isn't Necessarily a Crime in 12 States

Key terms: criminal law, reserved powers, policy diffusion, due process

- Click here for the article.

By day, Minnesota state Rep. Zach Stephenson is a prosecutor. Yet it came as a surprise to him when a constituent said his daughter had been raped by her husband and that a provision in the state’s law prevented him from being prosecuted.

"I don’t normally handle sex crimes, but I thought no way in 2019 in Minnesota do we have a law on the books that makes that OK," says the Democratic lawmaker. "I went back to my office and read through the law and sure enough there is an exception for drugging or having sex with someone mentally incapacitated if they’re married."

Twelve states -- Connecticut, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Virginia -- have a loophole that legalizes marital rape. In Nevada, being married to the victim is enough to protect someone from prosecution. In Virginia, a husband can avoid criminal charges if he agrees to therapy. In South Carolina, a married victim only has 30 days to report the rape and has to prove threat of physical violence.

The most recent state to close a marital rape loophole was Maryland, in 2017, where the law had required victims to prove there was use of force.

Since then, lawmakers in Ohio have tried and failed to eliminate the state's requirement for proof of threat of force or violence if a couple is married or living together. Ohio state Rep. Kristin Boggs, a Democrat, believed the state had the votes to pass it last year, but the bill didn't make it past committee. Boggs says she intends to refile the bill this year. She'll have to overcome the critics who argue that closing marital rape loopholes would open the door to false allegations during contentious divorce settlements.

"The problems of proof was one concern. This happens between husband and wife in private -- it’s one person’s word against another," John Murphy of the Ohio Prosecuting Attorneys Association, which has previously opposed the bill, told the Dayton Daily News in 2017.

From the Texas Tribune: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, other top leaders propose raising the sales tax to provide property tax relief

We might have to change our government notes again.

Key Terms: regressive taxes, unitary government, fiscal policy, local government, Texas constitution

- Click here for the article.

Texas' top three political leaders — Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dennis Bonnen — threw their support Wednesday behind a proposal to increase the sales tax by 1 percentage point in order to lower property taxes across the state.

But that's only if lawmakers agree to limit future local property tax increases.

The proposal would raise the state's sales tax from 6.25% to 7.25%, generating billions of additional dollars annually for property tax relief, if voters approve a constitutional amendment. But the idea will be a hard sell to Democrats, since the sales tax is considered regressive, meaning lower-income Texans end up paying a larger percentage of their paychecks than higher-income Texans.

"Today we are introducing a sales tax proposal to buy down property tax rates for all Texas homeowners and businesses, once Senate Bill 2 or House Bill 2 is agreed to and passed by both Chambers. If the one-cent increase in the sales tax passes, it will result in billions of dollars in revenue to help drive down property taxes in the short and long term," said a joint statement from the three Republicans.

Neither chamber has passed HB 2 or SB 2, which would require voter approval of property tax increases over 2.5%.

The House Ways and Means Committee was scheduled to take public testimony on the House's sales tax swap proposal this week but delayed hearing the bills. Rep. Dan Huberty, R-Houston, who authored House Joint Resolution 3 and House Bill 4621, is considering changing the legislation to use a fraction of the additional money generated by the sales tax for public schools — in order to get more Democrats on board.

The bills are intended to provide another revenue source to help significantly cut down local school property taxes, which make up more than half of the local property taxes levied in Texas.

If the Legislature approves the resolution, the constitutional amendment would go to voters to approve in November, and if voters sign on, the tax rate change would apply in January 2020.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

What is Medicare for all?

A couple explainers from Vox.

Cutting to the chase, lot's of different things. It's much more popular among liberals, sine it promotes equity. Less so among conservatives since it interferes with the market.

- The “pleasant ambiguity” of Medicare-for-all in 2018, explained.
- We read Democrats’ 9 plans for expanding health care. Here’s how they work.

As popular as Medicare-for-all is, the slightly more vexing question is what it actually means.

Historically, Medicare-for-all has meant single-payer health insurance, a national government-run program that covered every American and replaced private coverage entirely, similar to the government-run health care programs in Canada and some European countries.

Then-Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) first introduced the Expanded and Improved Medicare for All Act in 2003. Conyers has since been disgraced by sexual harassment allegations but the idea lives on. It’s now sponsored by Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) and it is still a single-payer proposal. So is Sanders’s Medicare-for-all bill, a cornerstone of his unexpectedly resonant 2016 presidential campaign.

But these days, other plans are falling under the Medicare-for-all umbrella. Some progressives, like Green, are even comfortable with the term being applied to the various proposals to allow all Americans buy into Medicare. Some of those plans used to be branded as a “public option”; they would not end private insurance that more than half of Americans get, usually through work, as a true single-payer would. But these plans would also not provide the same guarantee of universal coverage that a single-payer system does.

“For anybody who supports Medicare-for-all single payer, what better way to debunk the right wing lies than to allow millions and millions of Americans to voluntarily opt into Medicare and love it?” Green told me in our interview. “As a political strategy, having Medicare-for-all be a broad umbrella where any candidate can embrace some version of it... that moves the center of gravity in the Democratic party.”

In 2018, with control of Congress at stake, nobody is taking up arms to insist that their version should be orthodoxy. What we know for certain is that Medicare-for-all is popular, and so Democrats of all stripes want to campaign on it. Governing comes later.


- For more: what is a single-payer system?

From the Atlantic: Why Europeans Don’t Get Huge Medical Bills

For our look at economic policy, regulations, interest groups, ideology, and health policy
Several European countries have health insurance, just like America does. The difference is that their governments regulate what insurance must cover and what hospitals and doctors are allowed to charge much more aggressively than the U.S. does.

When I described surprise medical bills to experts who focus on different Western European countries’ health systems, they had no idea what I was talking about. “What is a surprise medical bill?” said Sophia Schlette, a public-health expert and a former senior advisor at Berlin’s National Statutory Health Insurance Physicians Association. “Seriously, they don’t happen here.”

Almost all Germans are covered by a variety of health-insurance like “sickness funds,” which are financed through taxes. Almost all doctors and hospitals accept these plans. About 90 percent of Germans never see a bill for their doctor’s visit, and the rest are covered by private insurance, which usually reimburses whatever they get charged. According to the researchers Roosa Tikkanen and Robin Osborn at the Commonwealth Fund, there’s a flat copay for people who are hospitalized, capped at a maximum of 280 euros—or about $315 U.S. dollars—for a 28-day stay. And doctors, too, are not allowed to charge more than the payment rates that are negotiated between the sickness funds and the doctors’ associations. A very small number of the country’s physicians are private and don’t accept the sickness funds, but they have to tell patients how much they’ll charge before the patient is treated, removing the surprise element.

In France, there are no provider networks, so no doctor can be “out of network.” Doctors’ associations negotiate their fees with the universal public health-insurance program every few years. As a result, says Paul Dutton, a history professor at Northern Arizona University who has studied the French system, “I’ve walked into an office [in France] with my kids where it’s just a receptionist and a doctor. There’s not these back-office wars” over what to charge patients.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Bump Stock Ban

We followed this rabbit hole in GOVT 2305 this evening.

- A federal bump stock ban starts today. Here's what that means for owners.
- The US Supreme Court Is Letting The Trump Administration's Bump Stock Ban Take Effect.
- Federal Register: Bump-Stock-Type Devices.
- Wikipedia: Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
- Firearms Policy Foundation.
- Hollis v. Lynch.

From Wikipedia: 1st United States Congress

We went through this in class today in order to figure out how the 1st Congress began to fill the empty vessel of executive power.

- Click here for it.

Grits for Breakfast

A nice source of info for Texas' criminal justice system

- Click here for the blog.

From the Texas Tribune Topics: Criminal Justice

For perusal in 2306.

- Click here for it.

A few standouts:

- Will Texas decriminalize marijuana this year? There is growing support.
- This Texas program lands poor people in jail. Getting rid of it has been too complicated — but that might be changing.
- Eight years on Texas' highest criminal court turned Elsa Alcala into a death penalty skeptic. How will the court change without her?
- What does race have to do with the death penalty in Texas?
- Built with rehabilitation in mind, Texas state jails are now viewed by lawmakers as a "complete failure"

For relevant Texas Statutes:

- Texas Penal Code.
- Texas Code of Criminal Procedure.

From the Texas Attorneyt General's Office:

- Penal Code Offenses by Punishment Range.

Meet FAA acting administrator Daniel Elwell

Daniel Elwell.jpg

Background from Wikipedia.

Raised in San Diego, Elwell graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in International Affairs from the United States Air Force Academy in 1983.[1] He moved on to Williams Air Force Base where he earned his pilot wings.[3]

Elwell was a Command Pilot for the U.S Air Force and U.S Air Force Reserve. Elwell fought in the Operation Desert Storm[4] in a combat capacity.[3] Elwell eventually reached the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. He retired soon after.

For 16 years, Elwell was a commercial pilot for American Airlines. Elwell also had a role of American Airlines's Managing Director for International and Government Affairs.[3] He also served served as a legislative fellow for the late Senator Ted Stevens.[3] While working for Senator Stevens, Elwell was part of other aviation safety programs in Alaska, including the Capstone Program in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, as well as the installation of real-time weather cameras at remote airfields and mountain passes.[5]

Elwell was named Vice President of the Aerospace Industries Association[6] in 2008 where he stayed until 2013. Elwell was a civil aerospace manufacturer representative in this capacity where he was an advocate for various companies.[3]

Elwell joined Airlines for America (A4A) in 2013[4] where he was the Senior Vice President for Safety, Security, and Operations. Elwell left this role in 2015.[3]

Elwell also served as the Senior Advisor on Aviation to Secretary Elaine Chao.[7]

The organization flowchart of the FAA



- Click here for the source.

Has Boeing captured the Federal Aviation Administration?

Recent events have lead some to say so.

Key Terms: regulatory capture, interest groups, regulatory agencies, lobbying

- Regulatory capture may be responsible for Boeing's recent problems.
- Bad dog: When the regulatory watchdog gets captured by big business.
- The FAA Has Always Played Cozy With the Aviation Industry.

From the last article:

The FAA is unusual among federal agencies because it was originally established to regulate and promote an industry. This fostered the unusually cozy relationship between regulators and business that has persisted to the present, even as the agency’s official mandate became exclusively focused on safety beginning in the 1990s.

The idea of a federal regulator for aviation first took shape with the Air Commerce Act of 1926. This law empowered the secretary of commerce to issue and enforce traffic rules, certify aircraft, improve air safety and investigate the cause of accidents.

But the language of the legislation made clear the main objective was “to encourage air commerce by attracting capital, creating appropriate laws, and establishing civil airways and navigational facilities.” By the 1930s, the “Bureau of Air Commerce” had helped foster the rise of the aviation business.

For more:

- Wikipedia: FAA.

Barr memorandum on obstruction of justice.

Key Terms: executive power, checks and balances

- Click here for the document.

From Politico: The Forgotten Reason Congress Needs to See the Mueller Report

"Legislators have a responsibility to police obstruction of justice, according to the Constitution."

- Click here for the article.

. . . Congress has a responsibility, rooted firmly in the Constitution, to safeguard the integrity of the justice system, including to prevent obstruction of justice. Therefore, Mueller’s findings are as much about whether President Donald Trump has stepped on Congress’ toes as it is about whether he broke the law.

In contesting a subpoena from Congress, the White House likely will make its favorite defense, which is that the president, legally speaking, can’t obstruct justice. This “unitary executive” theory rests on Article II of the Constitution, which gives the chief executive the power to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” According to this view, this language means the president alone is in charge of which cases to pursue in the justice system: If he decides to stop an investigation, that is his prerogative, and his reasons for doing so are beyond the purview of investigators, Congress and the courts. A year before being confirmed as attorney general, Barr laid out an ancillary proposition in a long and rambling memo to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, arguing the president can’t be investigated for obstruction based on something that is, on its face, a valid exercise of his power — like firing the FBI director. According to Barr, questioning the motives behind such an action would have disastrous consequences and open a Pandora’s box of potential inquisitions into “all exercises of prosecutorial discretion.”

The problem with this defense is that it conflates enforcement of the laws—a power that resides in the executive branch—with the administration of justice, which is constitutional responsibility that is shared by all three branches, including Congress. When it comes to the administration of justice—and those who would thwart the integrity of that process—Congress has a big role to play.

The idea of obstruction of justice has its origins in an 1819 Supreme Court case, McCulloch v. Maryland (a case you might be familiar with if you’re a Hamilton fan), that challenged Congress’ power to create a national bank. The court found that Congress’ authority to create a bank—even though not explicitly mentioned in the Constitution—stemmed from its power to create laws “necessary and proper” for executing its explicit powers, like collecting taxes, borrowing money and regulating commerce. Importantly, the court noted that under the same reasoning, Congress could similarly pass laws which are “necessary and proper” to execute the powers of the other branches, as well. As an example of the latter, the Supreme Court pointed out that Congress could pass laws to ensure the effective functioning of the courts, noting that crimes like “falsifying … a process of the court,” or perjury, were “conducive to the due administration of justice.” In other words, the court made clear that Congress has the constitutional authority to ensure that the justice system can function without malevolent interference: This is exactly what obstruction of justice is about.

As courts have observed in more recent cases, it makes sense that Congress would be entrusted with safeguarding the integrity of the judicial process. After all, Congress itself is responsible for creating all federal courts apart from the Supreme Court. Protecting the procedure through which cases are investigated, tried and adjudicated is what allows the judicial branch to function as a coequal branch—if defendants could derail cases, mislead investigators or lie to the court with impunity, courts would cease to have the ability to administer justice at all. This is why “process crimes”—the family of crimes that includes not only obstruction of justice, but false statements, perjury, witness tampering and contempt of court (a mechanism by which the judiciary can assert its own interest in fair administration of the laws)—are indispensable to the rule of law: They ensure that the integrity of the justice system is maintained from start to finish. If it’s Congress’ job to create rules that protect the courts’ ability to do their job, then it’s also Congress’ duty to get to the bottom of whether the president has tried to thwart those efforts.

Monday, April 8, 2019

From the Clarion-Ledger: COPY, PASTE, LEGISLATE You elected them to write new laws. They’re letting corporations do it instead.

Key Terms: watchdog, special interests, federalism, biased pluralism

- Click here for the article.
Each year, state lawmakers across the U.S. introduce thousands of bills dreamed up and written by corporations, industry groups and think tanks.

Disguised as the work of lawmakers, these so-called “model” bills get copied in one state Capitol after another, quietly advancing the agenda of the people who write them.

A two-year investigation by USA TODAY, The Arizona Republic  and the Center for Public Integrity reveals for the first time the extent to which special interests have infiltrated state legislatures using model legislation.

USA TODAY and the Republic found at least 10,000 bills almost entirely copied from model legislation were introduced nationwide in the past eight years, and more than 2,100 of those bills were signed into law.

The investigation examined nearly 1 million bills in all 50 states and Congress using a computer algorithm developed to detect similarities in language. That search – powered by the equivalent of 150 computers that ran nonstop for months – compared known model legislation with bills introduced by lawmakers.

The phenomenon of copycat legislation is far larger. In a separate analysis, the Center for Public Integrity identified tens of thousands of bills with identical phrases, then traced the origins of that language in dozens of those bills across the country.

Model bills passed into law have made it harder for injured consumers to sue corporations. They’ve called for taxes on sugar-laden drinks. They’ve limited access to abortion and restricted the rights of protesters.

In all, these copycat bills amount to the nation’s largest, unreported special-interest campaign, driving agendas in every statehouse and touching nearly every area of public policy.

The investigation reveals that fill-in-the-blank bills have in some states supplanted the traditional approach of writing legislation from scratch. They have become so intertwined with the lawmaking process that the nation’s top sponsor of copycat legislation, a member of the Pennsylvania General Assembly, claimed to have signed on to 72 such bills without knowing or questioning their origin.

For lawmakers, copying model legislation is an easy way to get fully formed bills to put their names on, while building relationships with lobbyists and other potential campaign donors.

For special interests seeking to stay under the radar, model legislation also offers distinct advantages. Copycat bills don’t appear on expense reports, or campaign finance forms. They don’t require someone to register as a lobbyist or sign in at committee hearings. But once injected into the lawmaking process, they can go viral, spreading state to state, executing an agenda to the letter. those bills across the country.

From Governing: Mississippi Leads Nation in Filing Legislation Other People Wrote. Here's Why That Matters.

Key Terms: interest groups, dark money, federalism, policy diffusion

- Click here for the article.

A bill that critics fear could unleash a wave of “dark money” in political spending quietly slipped through the Mississippi Legislature this year and became law.

There were no rallies for or against the bill, which was loaded with jargon about non-profit organizations.

It only caused a stir by the time it reached the desk of Gov. Phil Bryant, who signed it with no hesitation.

Supporters of the bill say it protects the privacy of donors, yet acknowledged that donor privacy is not a problem in Mississippi.

Some did not realize it had originated outside of Mississippi, or that a nearly identical bill had been pushed through the Michigan Legislature months earlier.

That’s because House Bill 1205, like many Mississippi bills, is a model bill, meaning it was essentially copied from a bill in a different state.

Rather than lobby the U.S. Congress, partisan organizations, business interests, and religious groups with national agendas plant these bills in statehouses across the country.

A USA Today investigation found Mississippi — which has fewer than 3 million residents — has more model bills introduced in its Legislature than any other state in the country.

Bills about donor privacy, abortion, divesting from Iran and many other issues frequently come from outside Mississippi’s borders.

Most never end up becoming law.

But some do. They have restricted abortion rights and public benefits and have changed policies on drugs, charter schools and much more.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

From CNN Business: Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg calls for more regulation of the internet

For our upcoming look at economic policy, and the factors that lead to the development of regulations.

- Click here for the article.

Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg, who has been under scrutiny for the social media company's role in spreading misinformation and inadequately policing content, is calling for regulators to play a "more active role" in establishing rules for the internet.

Zuckerberg called for stricter regulation of "harmful content, election integrity, privacy and data portability" in an op-ed published Saturday on his official Facebook account and in the Washington Post.

"I believe we need a more active role for governments and regulators," he wrote. "By updating the rules for the Internet, we can preserve what's best about it - the freedom for people to express themselves and for entrepreneurs to build new things - while also protecting society from broader harms."

Zuckerberg's missive was the most comprehensive the Facebook CEO has ever been on the issue of government regulation. His call comes as US federal prosecutors are reportedly probing Facebook's data sharing deals with a number of large technology companies. The US Federal Trade Commission is said to be in talks with Facebook over a possible record fine. And European officials continue to scrutinize the company.

Facebook was roundly condemned this month when it failed to stop a live stream by the suspect in the New Zealand terrorist attack that killed 50 people. The platform has also faced a litany of scandals, ranging from hate speech to privacy, and criticism over the spread of fake news, especially during national elections.

"Every day, we make decisions about what speech is harmful, what constitutes political advertising, and how to prevent sophisticated cyberattacks. These are important for keeping our community safe," he wrote. "But if we were starting from scratch, we wouldn't ask companies to make these judgments alone."

INS v. Chadha

The Supreme Court case that invalidated the legislative veto, and in the opinion of some, unleashed executive power.

- The Legislative Veto.
- Oyez.
- Wikipedia.

From the Washington Post: How the Supreme Court weakened Congress on emergency declarations

On the evolving relationship between the three branches, and the imperial presidency.

- Click here for the article.

When the law under which President Trump has declared a national emergency was first enacted, in 1976, it was designed to require both Congress and the president to agree that a national emergency exists before the president could exercise emergency powers. Now that the Senate has joined the House in rejecting Trump’s emergency declaration, his declaration would be invalid — if not for a 1983 Supreme Court decision that destroyed the careful scheme Congress had designed for deciding whether emergency powers should be unleashed.

To understand how that Supreme Court decision dramatically affected the way the government works, consider what Congress had intended when it passed the National Emergencies Act. The law, created in the post-Vietnam and post-Watergate years, was one of many adopted in that era to constrain what had come to be called “the imperial presidency.” Congress decided that the awesome and dangerous power to declare emergencies required the agreement of both political branches of the government.

Rightly or wrongly (and over the vigorous dissent of Justice Byron White), the court concluded that Congress cannot act through a legislative veto but can act only by passing a new law. In the case of Trump’s declaration of a national emergency, that means Congress cannot simply disapprove, thus terminating the declaration, but instead must give Trump the chance to veto Congress’s disapproval, as he has promised to do. Instead of being able to end a presidential declaration of emergency with a majority vote in both the House and Senate, Congress must marshal an implausible two-thirds majority in each chamber to override the president’s veto.

Congress is often accused, justifiably, with fecklessly abdicating its institutional responsibilities by delegating vast, general powers to the president and the executive branch. Some critics of the National Emergencies Act have accused Congress of exactly that, in part because the act does not define what constitutes an emergency. But the criticisms are misplaced when it comes to the act in its original form.

Having resolved that deciding whether an emergency exists is ultimately a political judgment, Congress gave itself a crucial role in the process. The legislative veto sought to make Congress, not the courts, the appropriate institution to decide whether the president was right to declare an emergency. By their nature, emergencies are difficult to define; that challenge mattered less when Congress was empowered to react to specific circumstances and decide whether the president had appropriately declared an emergency.

From 538: Why Trump Hasn’t Seen A Post-Mueller Boost In The Polls

Possible evidence supporting the conclusions here.

- Click here for the article.

The completion of Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election was widely portrayed as a turning point in Trump’s presidency. But so far it’s had little effect on his approval rating.

As of Monday night, Trump’s approval rating was 42.1 percent and his disapproval rating was 52.8 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s approval rating tracker, which is based on data all publicly-available polls. Those numbers are little changed from where they were – 41.9 percent approval and 52.9 percent disapproval – on Saturday, March 23, the day before Attorney General William Barr issued a four-page letter on the Mueller report to Congress. (The Mueller report itself has not yet been released to the public or to Congress, although Barr has pledged to release a redacted version of it by mid-April.)

Trump’s approval rating is little changed since the Barr letter


Trump’s approval rating is little changed since the Barr letter
Trump approval and disapproval ratings in FiveThirtyEight polling average
DATEEVENTAPPROVEDISAPPROVE
March 1Start of last month42.0%53.3%
March 21Day before Mueller report filed to Barr41.653.1
March 23Day before Barr letter released41.952.9
April 1Current42.152.8

While I’d urge a little bit of caution on these numbers – sometimes there’s a lag before a news event is fully reflected in the polls – there’s actually been quite a bit of polling since Barr’s letter came out, including polls from high-quality organizations such as Marist College, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac University and the Pew Research Center which were conducted wholly or partially after the Barr letter was published. Some of these polls showed slight improvements in Trump’s approval rating, but others showed slight declines. Unless you’re willing to do a lot of cherry-picking, there just isn’t anything to make the case that much has changed.

In writing about the Barr letter just after it came out, I ducked making any sort of prediction about its effect on Trump’s numbers, saying it might or might not approve his approval ratings. Truth be told, if I were forced to put money on one side or another, I’d probably have expected them to improve by more than a few tenths of a percentage point.

With the benefit of hindsight, though, maybe this shouldn’t have been any sort of surprise. There are at least six reasons for why you might not have expected to see much of a change in Trump’s numbers. Here they are – note that these aren’t mutually exclusive and aren’t listed in any particular order of importance.