Voter Turnout

Having the right to vote is one thing, exercising it is another.

- MIT Election Lab.

Voter turnout is a measure of civic participation that many people believe best gauges the health of the electoral process. However, measuring turnout can be more difficult than it first appears, which means that understanding how and why it fluctuates can also be difficult.

Important legislation in the twentieth century, most notably the Voting Rights Act of 1965, has led to a long-term increase in the ability of Americans to participate in elections. The effects of other legislation intended to increase turnout, such as the National Voter Registration Act, have been more limited to specific administrative practices across states.

- Wikipedia: 

In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate (often defined as those who cast a ballot) of a given election. This is typically either the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that "democracies perform better when more people vote."

Institutional factors drive the vast majority of differences in turnout rates. For example, simpler parliamentary democracies where voters get shorter ballots, fewer elections, and a multi-party system that makes accountability easier see much higher turnout than the systems of the United States, Japan, and Switzerland.

United States Elections Project:

- National Turnout Rates Graph.

- Turnout Demographics.

Fairvote: 

- Voter Turnout by State. 

Texas Secretary of State:

- Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current).

Texas Almanac: 

- Voter Participation in Texas.

From the Texas Tribune: Congressmen Want Investigation of Houston Poll Miscues

For our look at how counties manage - or perhaps mismanage - elections. The article also touches on a controversial topic: Does Texas really want higher voter participation?

- Click here for the article.

Two Houston congressmen are asking the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate whether unequal distribution of voting machines and polling locations in Harris County disenfranchised minority voters during the March 1 primary election.In a letter dated March 15, U.S. Reps. Al Green and Gene Green, both Houston Democrats, blamed insufficient voting machines and polling locations for “excessively long lines” in predominantly Hispanic and black precincts in Harris County. Citing local news reports, the congressmen indicated that long lines “deterred” minority voters from “exercising their right to vote that day.”

“The failure to distribute sufficient voting machines in predominantly Hispanic and African-American precincts in Harris County, in comparison to the resources made available in more affluent, predominantly Anglo precincts in the county, had a discriminatory impact on our constituents’ ability to participate in the political process,” the congressmen wrote.

Though Texas ranks among the bottom for voter turnout rates in the country, voter turnout surged in Texas for the March 1 election with more than 4.2 million ballots cast in the primary election — up from about 2 million in 2012.

In Harris County, the state’s largest county, the number of voters casting ballots increased from 240,466 in the 2012 primary to 557,048 this year.

The increased turnout — fueled by a heated Republican presidential race — left election officials scrambling to deliver additional voting machines to polling locations with long lines on election day. Still, some voters in Houston did not cast their votes until after 9:30 p.m. — hours after polls closed. Others reportedly abandoned their place in line without voting after waiting for hours.

The distribution of polling locations in primary elections is a responsibility of each county’s political party, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s Office, which oversees elections and voting. Using a formula based on previous voter turnout, county parties are charged with estimating voter turnout and determining the number of voting machines and polling locations needed.

In case you are curious, here is the formula:

The formula for estimating turnout for the primary elections is:

A x (B + C) = D

Where:

A = the percentage of voter turnout for the office that received the most votes in the most recent comparable party primary election (percentage is the sum of all votes cast for the office that received the most votes in the most recent comparable party primary election divided by the number of registered voters).
B = the number of registered voters as of October preceding the primary.
C = 25% of the number resulting when you multiply A x B.
D = Preliminary Estimated Turnout.

From the Texas Tribune: In El Paso, apathy, alienation and discontent with candidates drives low voter turnout

For our look at low voter turnout in Texas.

- Click here for the article.

On the sunny morning of Texas’ March primaries, Jorge Trujillo, 73, a retired packing factory salesperson, stood outside a senior center here canvassing for Homer Reza, a Democratic candidate for the Texas House.

A white sheet of paper taped to the community center’s door tallied the day’s voters: Only 60 people had cast a ballot by noon.

“I think people have given up on politics,” Trujillo said, standing in the parking lot with his wife, Sylvia. “Seeing all this division, they simply don’t care anymore.”

The situation was stark, but not particularly surprising. This West Texas border town — with more than 677,000 residents, most of them Mexican American — is in a low voter-turnout county in a low voter-turnout state.

The county had 502,700 registered voters in the 2024 primaries, but only about 11% cast a ballot. That’s more than 7% lower than the last presidential primaries in 2020, and good for the second worst turnout rate in the state. In 2022 general midterm elections, 34% of El Paso’s registered voters cast a ballot, about 10% less than in the 2018 general midterms.

Statewide voter turnout for the 2024 primaries was 18%, lower than it was for the 2020 primaries. That’s typically low; Texas consistently ranks among the bottom 10 states in turnout.

While some political observers once again say the future of democracy is on the line in the 2024 presidential election, there appears to be voter fatigue — or apathy — in El Paso and elsewhere around the state.

On primary election day, The Texas Tribune spoke to voters and non-voters across various demographics and backgrounds in El Paso about why they were voting — or why they weren’t.

Among the reasons people gave: a general lack of knowledge about how to register, dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates for president and a lack of excitement for local candidates. Others said that state officials and presidential candidates are too focused on immigration, an issue they said that doesn’t directly affect them, even though they live on the border.

Some also expressed a feeling that has persisted for years in this border town nearly 600 miles from the state capital: El Paso is an afterthought for state officials in Austin.

From the Texas Tribune: Analysis: Texas Seen as "Kind of an Electoral Wasteland"

As you will see in both 2305 and 2306. Voter turnout in the United States is among the lowest in all nations, and turnout in Texas is among the lowest among all states. We will investigate both later this semester - though this is a topic that we cover more in 2305 than 2306.

The Texas Tribune reports on the latest primary number - which are as low as they've ever been.

- click here for the article.

Some highlights:

. . . there is no way to spin Texas voters’ anemic level of interest into a positive commentary on civic engagement.

“It is kind of an electoral wasteland — not a lot of competition, not a lot of motivation for the parties to get out and mobilize,” said Michael P. McDonald, associate professor of government and politics at George Mason University. “If there is no battle, they just sit back and become weak and flabby.”

In years when voters are not driven to the polls by presidential races — those always inflate the numbers — Texas is one of the worst places in the country for voter turnout and engagement.

In 2010, 32.1 percent of the state’s eligible adults voted in the general election, according to the United States Elections Project maintained by McDonald. Only one place was worst: the District of Columbia, with 28.9 percent. The national rate was 41 percent — still lousy, but much better than in Texas. Minnesota was at the head of the class that year, turning out 55.4 percent of its eligible population.

The lack of meaningful electoral competition in the state makes the races less interesting and leads to voters tuning the campaigns out. People get in the habit of not voting. One of the reasons primary races are not competitive is that they have been designed not to be. Gerrymandering ensures that certain districts will be represented by Republicans, while others will be represented by Democrats. This suppresses the need to vote. In fact, high turnout might be threatening to an incumbent, so they might have an incentive to keep turnout low.

Most districts are drawn to favor one party or another, meaning that the winner of the Democratic or Republican primary will win in November unless they make a terrible mistake and also have an opponent on the general election ballot. Texas has 36 congressional seats. In seven of them, the Republican candidate has no Democratic opponent. In six, the Democratic candidate has no Republican opponent. Only one of the remaining seats, the 23rd Congressional District, is considered winnable by either major party in November. The overall level of competition is similar in the 31-member Texas Senate and in the 150-member Texas House.

Try selling that to an unmotivated voter.

This helps us come to grips with the reality of low voter turnout in the state. We'll discuss this more, its an ongoing issue in the state, but it is worth remembering that not everyone benefits from high voter turnout. There are reasons it is suppressed.

Both 2305 and 2306 students wade through early material on civic virtue and engagement and how important these are in a republic.

From Governing: Voter Turnout Plummeting in Local Elections

This is part of a long term - and troubling - trend.

- Click here for the article.

Voter turnout for local elections has historically lagged but is getting worse, prompting officials to explore new ways to get people to the polls. Just over a fifth of registered voters cast their ballots in the Los Angeles primary and runoff elections that ushered in Mayor Eric Garcetti last year. The elections continued a persistent downward trend in voter participation that’s not limited to Los Angeles. In New York, Bill de Blasio won a landslide election that similarly saw the lowest voter turnout since at least the 1950s.

More recently, just over a quarter of voters showed up for the District of Columbia’s hotly-contested mayoral primary – the lowest turnout in more than 30 years.
Voter turnout for local elections, typically held in off-cycle years, has historically lagged behind state and federal races set to take place in November, butrecent results suggest it’s slowly becoming even worse.

. . . Long ago, political machines routinely mobilized a healthy cadre of big city voters with often predictable results. Later, during the 1960s and 70s, more than two-thirds of registered voters cast ballots in New York, Los Angeles and elsewhere when power shifted to racial and ethnic minorities. But now, voter participation in big cities is typically low, prompting officials to explore ways to get more people out to the polls.

From the Texas Secretary of State: Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)

For the official turnout figures in Texas, click here.

Here are the most recent turnout figures - percent of turnout to voting age population. The figures are statewide.

- 2014 General Election: 24.99%
- 2014 Republican Primary Runoff: 3.98%
- 2014 Democratic Primary Runoff: 1.48%
- 2014 Republican Primary: 7.18%
- 2014 Democratic Primary: 2.96%
- 2013 Constitutional Election: 6.14%
- 2012 General Election: 43.73%

The Texas Almanac has figures dating back to 1872. Click here for it.

Click on these for random commentary on turnout in the state.

- Texas has the worst voter turnout in the country.
- Analysis: 2016 Could See Voter Turnout Spike in Texas.
- Democratic consultant says Texas had nation's 'worst voter participation' in November 2014.
- Texas seen last in voting.
- Turnout Down in Texas, and Democrats Claim a Reason: Voter ID Law.

From Vox: The Democratic voter surge was very real on Super Tuesday

More on turnout.

- Click here for the article.

The first two states in the Democratic primary elections cast some doubts as to whether voter turnout would increase much in 2020. But after Super Tuesday’s races, Democrats can likely put those doubts behind them.

In most states, voter turnout was significantly higher this year than it was in 2016:

In Alabama, turnout increased from more than 398,000 in 2016 to more than 451,000 in 2020.

In Arkansas, turnout increased from more than 218,000 with all votes counted to over 228,000 with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.

In North Carolina, turnout increased from more than 1.1 million with all votes counted to more than 1.3 million with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

In Tennessee, turnout went from more than 371,000 to more than 513,000.

In Texas, turnout rose from more than 1.4 million with all votes counted to more than 2.1 million with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.

In Vermont, turnout increased from nearly 135,000 with all votes counted to more than 157,000 with roughly 89 percent of precincts reporting.

In Virginia, turnout grew from nearly 783,000 to more than 1.3 million.

From the Washington Post: Where voter turnout exceeded 2018 highs

A look at how turnout in 2022 differed from the last midterm election in 2018, in addition to the presidential election of 2020.

- Click here for it. 

A smaller share of Americans appear to have voted in these midterm elections than the last one, but in some states, voter enthusiasm exceeded the high mark set in 2018, according to a Washington Post analysis of Associated Press and U.S. Elections Project data.

Votes are still being counted, and in some states, it may take weeks to know the exact number of Americans who voted. But votes counted so far and expected vote totals show divergent turnout rates across states.

Turnout was especially high for a midterm in several battleground states, where expectations of a close contest appeared to boost voter participation. Voter turnout in Pennsylvania is on track to exceed 2018 by four percentage points. Nearly 6 in 10 eligible voters in Wisconsin and Michigan cast a ballot.

But in a handful of states, voter enthusiasm fell far below 2018 levels and was more on par with the record lows seen in 2014. In Mississippi and West Virginia, less than 35 percent of eligible voters participated. In New Jersey and Maryland, turnout is anticipated to be 10 percentage points lower than 2018.

Voting Turnout

United States Election Project - Voter Turnout Demographics.

Texas Secretary of State: Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current).

Ballotpedia: Voter turnout in United States elections.

Wikipedia: Voter turnout in United States presidential elections.

Early voting begins in Texas

Yesterday anyway - I'm a tad tardy on this.

A few items:

- Houston Public Media: Big Turnout On First Day Of Early Voting In Harris County.

Early voting is under way in Texas and turnout has been strong across greater Houston, including Harris County.

The office of Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart calculated that, on average, 6,000 people were voting per hour during the morning of October 24th, the first day designated for early voting.

“That’s higher than what we’ve ever done before in Harris County’s history. So, the turnout is strong and, with the expanded hours that we have this, you know, first week, it will even be a higher turnout this week,” Stanart commented as he visited the polling place located at the Metropolitan Multi Service Center, on West Gray Street, near the Montrose Area.

Several voters who went to that location said they had never seen such a long line.

- KPRC: Record turnout expected for early voting.

Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart says he’s expecting a record turnout as early voting begins Monday for the two weeks prior to the Nov. 8 Election Day.

As the possibility of cheating continues to be a national topic, Stanart says voting fraud is rare but is a possibility, especially with the ballot by mail process.

”We do have many cases where we suspect voter fraud in our ballot by mail process but to get to where we can get an indictment is a whole different case,” he said. “You’ve got to actually find the exact person that’s doing it because it’s obvious there’s something going on, but to be able to prove it so we can get the conviction, that’s where the difficult part is.”

Stanart has heard Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's claims that the election is rigged and that there is a chance for him to lose the election because of fraud. Stanart says while it is not perfect, the Harris County system will not be easily compromised and he sought to allay people's concerns that their votes will not be counted.

- The Facts: Brazoria County prepares for higher turnouts with new equipment, extra polling locations.

In a presidential election season where anything can, and will, happen, the Brazoria County Elections Department plans to make sure voters have no surprises at the polls.
“I keep telling everybody I want to go out with a bang, but I want it to be a good bang,” joked Janice Evans, the county’s outgoing elections director.

Elections officials spent $162,000 for 56 new voting machines from Hart InterCivic Inc. to brace themselves for a voter rush at the polls, as well as accommodate the 10 extra polling locations added for the Nov. 8 election to stem the flow in certain areas.

“We were waiting for the big turnout so we want to be prepared,” Assistant Elections Director Lisa Mujica said. “We have about 800 pieces of equipment back here.

“We’ve already brought them in and set them up and labeled them and tested them. We’re ready to go.”

Voter turnout is historically paltry both statewide and locally, with only 30.46 percent of registered Brazoria County voters showing up to the polls last year. However, the most contentious presidential election in recent memory has primed election officials for higher numbers.

“It’s the intensity of it,” Mujica said.

From the Texas Tribune: Record early voting numbers reported across Texas.

After the first day of early voting, Williamson, Bastrop and Hays counties all report having a record-breaking number of people showing up to the polls, the Austin American-Statesman reports.

The lines at various polling places were particularly long, and some voters said they had to wait for hours before casting their ballot. “I usually vote early for the very reason for escaping the lines, and this year that didn’t happen, so we’ll try again,” Amanda Stephens of Corpus Christi told the Tribune. She said she didn’t recall having trouble voting during previous election seasons.

As the Tribune’s Jim Malewitz reports, the Harris County Clerk’s Office said about 53,000 people had cast ballots by 4:30 p.m., which surpassed the roughly 47,000 votes cast on the first day of early voting during the 2012 presidential election. Denton County also saw a large turnout, although voting at 11 places started late because some machines needed to be reprogrammed.

According to Alicia Pierce, a spokeswoman for Texas Secretary of State Carlos Cascos, it’s difficult to say whether the high polling turnout will continue throughout early voting, which continues until Nov. 4. “Historically, presidential elections tend to attract more voters, especially when there is not an incumbent in the White House,” Pierce said.

From the Houston Chronicle: Harris County breaks record for first day of early voting.

After more than 18 months of exhaustive media coverage, two grueling nomination fights and three combative debates, voters in Harris County and across Texas lined up in record numbers Monday to cast early ballots in the presidential election.

Monday's turnout of 67,471 in-person voters shattered the county record of 47,093 set in 2012 for the first day of early voting. Another 61,543 mail ballots had been returned as of Monday, bringing the total number of early voters so far to 129,014 in Texas' most populous county.

From the Texas Tribune: Early voting turnout in 2024 Texas primaries slumps compared to 2020

 For our look at:  

- voter turnout.
- primary elections.

- Click here for the article. 

More than 200,000 fewer Texans participated in early voting during the 2024 primary election compared to the 2020 primary – despite an overall uptick in the number of registered voters in the state.

About 10% of registered voters, or 1.8 million people, cast a ballot during early voting, which ran from Feb. 20 to March 1. That marked a significant decline from the last presidential primary election in 2020, where 12.6% of registered voters participated early.

_______

For more: 

- MIT Lab: Voter turnout.

- MAP: VOTER TURNOUT PERCENTAGE.

- US Elections Project. National General Election VEP Turnout Rates, 1789-Present.

Randon items About Eric Cantor's loss

Eric Cantor - the U.S. House majority leader - was defeated in a primary election in Virginia Tuesday. The story caused quite a stir, not only because he was the first House majority leader to not be renominated by his party, but it was not expected. It also suggests the Tea Party - at least on states like Virginia - still has legs.

Here are a few items related to this event and how they illustrate class material:

- Eric Cantor Defeated by David Brat, Tea Party Challenger, in G.O.P. Primary Upset.

Read this for basic background about what happened.

- Cantor internal poll claims 34-point lead over primary opponent Brat.

All campaigns run their own polls in order to figure out how well they are doing, but not all polls are conducted well. The poll was taken in late May, so perhaps it did not take into consideration last minute shifts in Brat's direction - or perhaps it was just wrong.

- Tea Party Cannibalizes Cantor.

The author here argues that the major factor in Cantor's defeat was low voter turnout. We will discuss the importance of turnout - as well as the decision to not vote - at different times in this class. Low voter turnout cuts against the idea that democracies reflect the will of the majority of the people. They reflect the will of the majority of those who show up. In primary elections this number can be especially low. 

The key factor in this upset is a 12% voter turnout—meaning that 6.1% of the local electorate could make a majority. This is a paradise for activists and ideologues—Main Street voters, not so much. No one seriously doubts whether Cantor could have won a general election in his Virginia district. This is purely a numbers game. An unrepresentative turnout makes for an unrepresentative result. And for Republicans, it is perhaps the most pointed reminder of the dangerous game they’ve been playing by stoking the fires of furious conservative populism.

The Tea Party's strength has been due to their members' decision collectively to actually show up and vote.

- Cantor’s Loss a Bad Omen for Moderates.

Cantor was the last Jewish Republican. He may have been inadvertently gerrymandered out of his own district.

- Total Raised and Spent.

Cantor raised $5.4 million to his opponents $206,663. So despite what we say elsewhere about the influence of money in politics - and it remains important - it ain't everything.

From the Houston Chronicle: Texas hits voter registration milestone, but what does it mean after 2016?

For 2305 and 2306.

- Click here for the article.

On Thursday, Carlos H. Cascos, the Texas secretary of state, reported that 15 million Texans are now registered to vote, an all-time high for a state that routinely ranks near the bottom for voter turnout.

As of Thursday morning, 15,015,700 Texans are registered to vote, which constitutes about 78 percent of the state’s total voting age population, according to a news release from Cascos’ office. The estimate for the entire voting-age population is about 19.3 million voters, meaning there are approximately 4 million Texans who can cast a ballot if only they’d get on the rolls. To put that in perspective, it’s as if the entire population of Houston, the state’s largest city, decided to sit out an election – and then double that effect.

“The number will likely increase a bit as last-minute applications continue to be processed during the next few days,” according to Cascos' office, citing the Oct. 11 deadline to register before the November election.

Let’s look at the historical increases behind the new numbers. The agency said Texas had 13.6 million registered voters, or 75 percent, during the 2012 presidential election. In 2008, that number stood at 13.5 million, or 77 percent.

So, in those four years – bookmarked by a competitive Democratic presidential primary and a fierce attempt to make President Obama a one-term chief executive – only about 71,000 new registrants joined the process. Consider it in this context now, considering, of course, that people turn 18 years old every day: From 2012 to today, the state saw an increase of 1.3 million registered voters.

A lot can happen in four years, to say the least, especially in a state whose booming population tracks younger and less white by the second. So, what accounts for the astronomical growth this time around? For one, the level of attention this presidential race has attracted among voters is unprecedented.

For more:

- Record 15 million Texans registered to vote.

And a caution: Analysis: High Voter Registration Figures Are Great — Sometimes.

Voter registration, however healthy it might be, isn’t a good indicator of voter turnout. It has varied widely in presidential elections over the last 40 years in Texas, and as you might expect, voter turnout — as a percentage of registered voters — has varied widely, too.

From the Texas Tribune: Voter turnout in Texas primaries is dramatically low. New political maps and voting law could create more obstacles.

Texas continues to lag in voter turnout.

- Click here for the story. 

Texans are heading to the polls for the 2022 primary, and voters will choose party nominees for statewide seats, including governor, and district-based congressional and legislative seats. Early voting lasts through Feb. 25, and election day is March 1. Historically, voter participation in midterm primary elections is dismal in Texas, with less than a quarter of registered voters casting ballots most years.

Turnout in the 2022 primary was low after the first four days of early voting. As of Feb. 17, the turnout data published by the Texas secretary of state does not reflect thousands of mail-in ballots reported by counties on their own websites. For instance, Fort Bend County reports that 1,400 mail-in ballots have been returned, but the state reports only two mail-in ballots there. In-person ballots are largely accounted for in the state’s data. A spokesperson for the secretary of state said the office is aware of the discrepancies and working with counties to correct the information.

- Click here for national turnout rates.

- Click here for Texas voter participation.

About MUD's and low voter turnout.

Just to add fuel to the fire regarding the consequences of low voter turnout: Here's a good look at how the political process - on the local level - really operates. 2306 students might want to think about this in order to catch up on the consequences of low voter turnout, in addition to single purpose governments.

- In area MUD elections, handful of voters decide $1 billion in bonds" 'Rent-a-voter' districts chided while supporters point to progress.

A few months ago, a cabinet maker and his wife were recruited to move into a manufactured home parked on a dirt road that was plowed into the woods on the west side of Conroe in Montgomery County.

Daniel and Deborah Spiecher are now the only residents of a newly created municipal utility district, or MUD, carved from 82 acres of land there. They are also the only ones eligible to vote Tuesday on $500 million in proposed bonds to develop that tract.

In fact, they are among just seven voters who will decide the fate this week of $1.07 billion in bonds for roads, water, sewer and recreational facilities in three such districts that were recently formed in this fast-growing county north of Houston. The debt will be repaid with taxes imposed on future residents and businesses. While some believe the MUDs provide a means to bring about high-end development in an orderly way, critics say they are out of control, with developers manipulating the democratic process to essentially take on the roles of cities and borrow hundreds of millions of dollars to make public improvements.

Montgomery County resident Adrian Heath decries the lack of transparency and citizen input into what critics call "rent-a-voter" MUD elections. Heath notes that the billion-dollar MUD proposals make the contentious, countywide election over a $280 million road bond package look like "kid stuff."

Yet an attorney representing one of the developers for the three MUDs refers to these initial seven voters as "urban pioneers."

"They move onto the land and help establish new communities, paving the way for the future homeowners," said Angela Lutz, the attorney for Stoecker Corp., which plans to develop land covered by a separate MUD on Conroe's west side and also north of The Woodlands. She stressed these elections are completely legal, as well as being "typical and ordinary" and the way MUDs have operated for decades.

Explaining the reduction in voters in Texas

Was it due to Voter ID? From the Texas Tribune:

Texas turnout, already the worst in the country, dropped. The state’s population is larger than it was in 2010. More than 14 million Texans registered to vote, according to the secretary of state — up from 13.3 million in 2010. Turnout that year was 37.5 percent. Turnout this year (the numbers are unofficial) was 33.6 percent.

The people who did not show up appear to be Democrats. The Republican numbers were up in the governor’s race, while the Democratic numbers were way down.

At a post-election discussion last week, Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, suggested the voter ID law might be to blame for the decline, implying that Democrats are more numerous among non-voters than Republicans. His opposite on the Republican side — Steve Munisteri — guffawed at that, instead crediting his own party’s turnout efforts, the state’s recent voting history and the national trend against Democrats.

Munisteri skeptically answered a question about whether Texans should be allowed to register and vote on the same day. He fears that would introduce an opportunity for fraud — the same concern cited by proponents of the voter ID law. Actual cases of the type of in-person voter fraud targeted by that law are scarce. And it will take some time to know whether the new law was to blame for the decline in voter turnout.

What Chat GPT tells us about selective incentives to group formation, increasing voter turnout, and the basics of lobbying regulation.

What are the selective incentives to group participation?

Selective incentives are benefits that are available only to those who participate in a group or organization. These incentives play a crucial role in motivating individuals to join and remain active in a group. Here are some examples of selective incentives to group participation:

Material Incentives: These include tangible benefits such as discounts, free merchandise, or financial rewards. For example, a membership card that offers discounts at certain stores or restaurants can serve as a material incentive for joining a group.

Solidarity Incentives: These incentives appeal to individuals' desire for social belonging and affiliation. By joining a group, individuals can feel a sense of camaraderie and belonging with others who share similar interests, values, or goals. Social events, group outings, or community gatherings can strengthen these bonds.

Expressive Incentives: Some individuals are motivated to join groups because it allows them to express their identity or values publicly. This can include participating in protests, rallies, or other forms of activism to demonstrate support for a cause or belief.

Informational Incentives: Groups may offer members access to valuable information, resources, or expertise that they would not have access to otherwise. This can include newsletters, workshops, seminars, or access to experts within the group.

Status Incentives: Membership in certain groups can confer social status or prestige within a community or society. For example, belonging to an exclusive club or organization may enhance an individual's reputation or social standing.

Access Incentives: Some groups offer exclusive access to opportunities, networks, or resources that are not available to the general public. This can include job opportunities, networking events, or access to influential individuals within the group's network.

Personal Fulfillment Incentives: Participation in a group may provide individuals with opportunities for personal growth, skill development, or the satisfaction of contributing to a cause they believe in. This can include volunteering, skill-building workshops, or leadership opportunities within the group.

By offering a combination of these selective incentives, groups can attract and retain members who are motivated by different factors, ultimately strengthening the organization and its ability to achieve its goals.

How can voter participation be increased?

Increasing voter participation is crucial for a healthy democracy, and there are several strategies that can be employed to achieve this:

Voter Education: Educating voters about the importance of their participation, how the electoral process works, and the impact of their vote can motivate them to engage in the electoral process. This can be done through civics education in schools, public awareness campaigns, and easily accessible information about candidates and issues.

Improving Access to Voting: Making it easier for people to vote can increase participation. This can include measures such as expanding early voting periods, implementing automatic voter registration, allowing online voter registration, and providing mail-in voting options. Additionally, ensuring that polling places are accessible and well-staffed can reduce barriers to voting.

Youth Engagement: Engaging young people in the political process early on can foster lifelong civic engagement. This can be done through programs in schools, youth-oriented voter registration drives, and efforts to make voting more relevant and accessible to young people.

Community Outreach: Building trust and relationships within communities can encourage voter participation. Community organizations, faith-based groups, and grassroots movements can play a crucial role in mobilizing voters by reaching out to them directly, providing information and resources, and addressing specific concerns and barriers to voting.

Campaign Finance Reform: Reforming campaign finance laws to reduce the influence of money in politics can help ensure that the voices of all citizens are heard, regardless of their financial resources. This can include measures such as public financing of elections, stricter disclosure requirements for campaign donations, and limits on the amount of money that can be contributed to political campaigns.

Increasing Political Representation: Increasing the diversity of candidates running for office and ensuring that elected officials are representative of the communities they serve can help engage voters who may feel marginalized or underrepresented in the political process.

Civic Engagement Programs: Implementing programs that encourage civic engagement and participation, such as voter registration drives, civics classes, and volunteer opportunities, can help build a culture of active citizenship and increase voter turnout.

Addressing Barriers to Participation: Identifying and addressing barriers that prevent certain groups from participating in the electoral process, such as voter suppression tactics, language barriers, lack of transportation, or restrictive voter ID laws, is essential for ensuring that all eligible voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots.

By implementing a combination of these strategies, policymakers, community leaders, and grassroots organizations can work together to increase voter participation and strengthen democracy.

What are the basics of lobbying regulation?

1 - Registration: Lobbyists typically need to register with government authorities, disclosing who they are representing and what issues they are lobbying on. This ensures transparency and accountability in the lobbying process.

2 - Disclosure: Lobbyists may be required to disclose their activities, including whom they're lobbying, the issues they're advocating for or against, and the resources they're using (such as funding or support).

3 - Ethical Standards: Many jurisdictions have codes of conduct or ethical standards that lobbyists must adhere to. This can include rules about conflicts of interest, gifts or favors, and honesty in communications.

4 - Reporting Requirements: Lobbyists might be required to report their activities at regular intervals, detailing their interactions with government officials, expenditures, and any other relevant information.

5 - Restrictions on Gifts and Contributions: To prevent undue influence, there may be limits on the value of gifts or contributions that lobbyists can offer to public officials.

6 - Cooling-off Periods: Some jurisdictions impose cooling-off periods, during which former government officials or employees cannot immediately transition into lobbying roles. This is to prevent the revolving door phenomenon and conflicts of interest.

7 - Anti-Corruption Measures: Lobbying regulations often include anti-corruption measures to prevent bribery, kickbacks, or other forms of illicit influence.

8 - Penalties for Non-Compliance: There are usually penalties for violating lobbying regulations, which can range from fines to criminal charges, depending on the severity of the offense.

Section Six - Suffrage, Elections, Campaigns, etc . . .

In this section we dig further into elections -  the mechanism that is used to tie the people with the government. 

In addition to the mechanics of he electoral process, this involves questions involving who gets to participate, who runs elections, who is allowed to run for office, and how they campaign for office. 

These can be divided into the following topics: 

1 - Suffrage 
2 - Elections 
3 - Voting 
4 - Voter Suppression
5 - Candidates 
6 - Campaigns 
7 - Campaign Consultants
7 - Campaign Finance
8 - The Donor Class

These can be defined as follows: 

1 - Suffrage: "Suffrage, political franchise, or simply franchise is the right to vote in public, political elections and referendums (although the term is sometimes used for any right to vote)."
 
2 - Elections: the formal process of selecting a person for public office or of accepting or rejecting a political proposition by voting.
 
3 - Voting:  a method by which a group, such as a meeting or an electorate, convenes together for the purpose of making a collective decision or expressing an opinion usually following discussions, debates or election campaigns.

4 - Voter Suppression: any legal or extralegal measure or strategy whose purpose or practical effect is to reduce voting, or registering to vote, by members of a targeted racial group, political party, or religious community.

5 - Candidate: A candidate is someone who is being considered for a position, for example someone who is running in an election or applying for a job.

6 - Campaign: an organized effort which seeks to influence the decision making progress within a specific group. In democracies, political campaigns often refer to electoral campaigns, by which representatives are chosen or referendums are decided.

7 - Campaign Consultants: 

8 - Campaign Finance: . . . the funds raised to promote candidates, political parties, or policy initiatives and referendums. Donors and recipients include individuals, corporations, political parties, and charitable organizations.

8 - The Donor Class: . . . a group of individuals or organizations that contribute significant amounts of money to political campaigns or causes. These donors often wield influence over political decision-making processes due to their financial contributions, which can fund advertising, lobbying efforts, and other activities that promote their interests or preferred policies.

Lectures: 

- U.S. Election Code.
- Texas Election Code.
- Is Voting a Right Guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution?
- Information, Disinformation, and Misinformation.
- Suffrage.
- Political Parties and Party Systems.
- Political Eras / Party Systems of the United States.
- Campaign Finance.
- Types of voter suppression.


Terminology

Elections
- elections
- regular elections
- voting
- adverse selection
- moral hazard
- institutions
- election rules
- suffrage
- participation rates
- who votes
- voter turnout
- nonvoters
- the franchise
- voter registration
- the ballot
- the secret ballot
- indirect democracy
- electoral districts
- single members districts
- electoral college
- majority rule
- minority rights
- redistricting
- fairness
- bias
- plurality
- proportional representation
- two party system
- winner take all 
- direct democracy
- referendum
- initiative
- recall
- party loyalty
- issue voting
- prospective voting
- retrospective voting
- spatial issues
- valence issues
- median voter theorem
- candidate characteristics
- campaigns
- campaign finance
- FECA
- media
- winning
- PACs
- Super PACs
- primaries
- general elections
- at large
- closed primary
- disenfranchisement
- early voting
- 15th Amendment
- get out the vote
- incumbents
- microtargeting
- motor voter law
- name recognition 
- negative campaigning
- open primary
- PACs
- Super PACs
- political efficacy
- political socialization
- poll tax
- primary election
- public opinion polling
- partisan election
- non-partisan election
- register
- runoff election
- single-member districts
- special election
- split ticket voting
- straight ticket voting
- Voting Rights Act

GOVT 2306
Assemblies
Parties in the Early Congress
Washington's warnings
Advantages of political parties
Expansion of suffrage
Democrats and the development of Texas
Rise of Republicanism
- business regulation
- civil rights
State parties
Local parties



Terminology

GOVT 2305: WTP - Chapter 8: Campaigns and Elections
advanced or early voting
blanket or wide-open primary
casework
closed primary
credit claiming
cross-filing 
direct primary
disclosure
equal protection clause
general election
grandfather clause
incumbent
independent candidate
literacy test
majority election
Motor Voter Act
open primary
party-line voting
party primary
plurality election
poll tax
position taking
preference primary
primary election
private financing
public financing
roll off
runoff election
second-order elections
suffrage 
voter turnout 
Voting Rights Act of 1965
white primary 

GOVT 2306: LSP - Chapter 9: Political Parties
allocation 
chronic minority
conventions (caucuses) 
county chair 
county or senatorial district convention 
electoral competition model 
executive committee 
grassroots organization 
party machines 
party platform
patronage 
permanent party organizations 
plank 
political party 
precinct chair 
responsible party model 
runoff primary 
state party chair 
straight-ticket voting 
temporary party organizations 

__________

Fall 2022

- What are parties and interest groups? 
- Contract allowing the formation of the Virginia Company
- Elite politics
- Interests highlighted in Federalist #10
- Territorial Expansion
- Free rider problem
- Tragedy of the commons 
- Public and private interests
- Federalists and Democrat - Republicans
- Party eras
- Contemporary politics
- The Powell Memo

Random posts regarding turnout.

Compare this info with what you see in your textbooks. 

- Voter Turnout Tops 14 Percent in Constitutional Amendment Election.

- Texas Voters Turn Out for Public Schools in 2023 Elections.

- Nearly 18% of registered Texas voters cast 2022 primary ballots.

- Voter turnout and registration in Texas.

- Primary Voters Set Records for Turnout, Not Turning Out.

- The primary problem with Texas elections.

From Wonkblog: Low voter turnout is no accident, according to a ranking of the ease of voting in all 50 states

- Click here for thew article.



There are a lot of factors that affect voter turnout in the United States — race, income, education, electoral competitiveness, the list goes on and on.

Many of those factors are outside policymakers' control. But there’s one big realm that they have a lot of influence over: voting access laws, which vary significantly from state to state. Is early voting allowed? How about no-excuse absentee voting? Are there strict voter ID laws, lax ones or none at all? Can convicted felons vote?

These laws generally affect how easy it is to cast a ballot in a given election. In a new report, political scientists at Northern Illinois University, Jacksonville University and China’s Wuhan University seek to quantify the net effect of a state’s election laws to determine the “time and effort” it takes to vote there. They call their project the Cost of Voting Index and have published it in the September issue of the Election Law Journal.

To create the index, the researchers collected data on 33 types of election laws that generally fell into seven different categories: voter-registration deadlines, restrictions on registrations and registration drives, preregistration laws that allow people under 18 to register in advance of their first elections, laws governing ease of voting (like early and absentee voting), voter ID requirements and polling hours.