Here are a few items related to this event and how they illustrate class material:
- Eric Cantor Defeated by David Brat, Tea Party Challenger, in G.O.P. Primary Upset.
Read this for basic background about what happened.
- Cantor internal poll claims 34-point lead over primary opponent Brat.
All campaigns run their own polls in order to figure out how well they are doing, but not all polls are conducted well. The poll was taken in late May, so perhaps it did not take into consideration last minute shifts in Brat's direction - or perhaps it was just wrong.
- Tea Party Cannibalizes Cantor.
The author here argues that the major factor in Cantor's defeat was low voter turnout. We will discuss the importance of turnout - as well as the decision to not vote - at different times in this class. Low voter turnout cuts against the idea that democracies reflect the will of the majority of the people. They reflect the will of the majority of those who show up. In primary elections this number can be especially low.
The key factor in this upset is a 12% voter turnout—meaning that 6.1% of the local electorate could make a majority. This is a paradise for activists and ideologues—Main Street voters, not so much. No one seriously doubts whether Cantor could have won a general election in his Virginia district. This is purely a numbers game. An unrepresentative turnout makes for an unrepresentative result. And for Republicans, it is perhaps the most pointed reminder of the dangerous game they’ve been playing by stoking the fires of furious conservative populism.
The Tea Party's strength has been due to their members' decision collectively to actually show up and vote.
- Cantor’s Loss a Bad Omen for Moderates.
Cantor was the last Jewish Republican. He may have been inadvertently gerrymandered out of his own district.
- Total Raised and Spent.
Cantor raised $5.4 million to his opponents $206,663. So despite what we say elsewhere about the influence of money in politics - and it remains important - it ain't everything.
