Pollsters make a good living making correct predictions so they are justifiably concerned when they get an election wrong. Double digit projections of a Barack Obama candidacy did not pan out. Here are guesses about what happened.
New Hampshire no longer rotates the order at which names appear on the ballot, which meant that Clinton came before Obama and undecided voters have been found to be more likely to vote for names that come first.
People with racist beliefs are able to make racial decisions more safely in a secret ballot (New Hampshire) than in a public (Iowa). These people would also be less liekly to tell a pollster that they will not support a black candidate. This suppressed the Obama vote, and presumably would do so elsewhere.
The pollsters were right, but politics is so fast now (due to the internet's 24/7 news cycle) that opinions change rapidly. Factors like Clinton's crying enter into this. They also back and forth so it could well be that New Hampshire has swung back to Obama, or even Edwards.
Independents who would have voted for Obama did not feel the need to vote for him because of his win in Iowa, so instead voted in the Republican Primary for McCain, thus affecting two candidates. If New Hampshire had a closed primary, this would not have occurred.
Slate wonders if polling ought to be banned in these elections. Assuming you can.
