Policymakers in the state are trying to figure out how public policies need to be changed in order to accommodate the huge number of baby boomers that are starting to retire. One area of concern: traffic policies.
What about traffic, and old people?
[State demographer Steve] Murdock sees the number of drivers growing, which makes sense since the overall population will grow. Since the population will be older over all, he projects the number of drivers per 1,000 residents will grow. More adults per 1,000 means more drivers per 1,000.
And the fastest growth of any age group will be the gray-hairs — drivers 65 or older. Depending on the growth model for Texas — what you think migration will do, whether you think the state will be as magnetic as it has been for the last two decades — the over-65 driving population will grow by anywhere from 218 percent to 268 percent between 2005 and 2040. Put another way: A population that numbered about 1.8 million in Texas in 2005 will grow to somewhere between 5.7 million and 6.6 million in 2040.
That group is part of a bigger issue: If the state continues to grow like it has, we will need more roads. “We’re adding lots of bodies to roads that are already congested,” Murdock said.
And lots of them are older bodies. Texas, as with some other states, has a different set of laws for its oldest drivers; after age 85, for instance, they have to get their licenses renewed every 2 years instead of every 6, and everyone who is 79 or older has to do it in person instead of by mail or online.
That might get another look as more drivers get old. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety says fatal crashes per mile driven “increase noticeably starting at age 70-74.”
The bright spot in the demographics-as-traffic-policy is on the other end, where the most dangerous drivers live. The number of drivers under 25 will have the lowest growth rate on the charts through 2040. Their crash rate per mile is five times the rate of seniors.
One of the examples I like to look at for [potentially] justifiable discrimination is age discrimination regarding drivers licences. the state toys with the idea that older folks ought to take tests again once they hit their 70s. Maybe that idea gets re-introduced.
