When I began teaching in 1994, the standard question we asked when we covered the presidency was why presidents were unlikely to be reelected, and why Republican presidents were more likely to be reelected than Democrats.
At that time, only Eisenhower, Nixon (who was unable to finish his term) and Reagan were elected to two full terms of office. Many other had been defeated. Now with Obama's reelection, we've had three president in a row who've won second terms.
Here's a look at why that might be the case.
I find this part most compelling:
Several factors may be at work, but one stands out. Most recent incumbent presidents have enjoyed the advantage of early, unified support from their own party.
Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama faced no challenge when they decided to seek renomination. Certainly they had their critics within their own party, especially the Democratic incumbents. Both Clinton and Obama faced murmurings of liberal discontent. But it did not suffice to propel a challenger to enter the fray.
On the other side, George H.W. Bush encountered sharp conservative opposition from Pat Buchanan. Although Buchanan never represented a serious threat for the nomination, he did pressure Bush 41 from the right. Bush’s situation paralleled that of Johnson, Ford, and Carter, each of whom did battle with a popular rival in his own party (Eugene McCarthy, Ronald Reagan, and Ted Kennedy).
With no competition for the nomination, a sitting president does not have to engage in one of the familiar exercises of American electoral politics in the modern era — repositioning himself between the primary season and the general election campaign. Mitt Romney’s attempt to redefine himself in the final months of the campaign, to shake the “etch-a-sketch” once he sewed up the nomination, is a necessary move given the sharp difference between the primary and general electorates.
We touched on similar thoughts in class, but note that this supports the idea that political parties have transformed the constitutional system.
