For 2306 - some random items

Some random items about Texas government:

- Ross Ramsey looks at down ballot races in the upcoming Texas Primary and wonders what will impact results in these low information races. People know little about presidential candidates, even less about state and local ones.

- The Texas Tribune reports that the Trump campaign lost one Texas state campaign director, but quickly got another. Here's Trump's press release announcing the change.

- A grand jury is investigating a land deal involving the Texas Attorney General. He's already being investigated for possible securities fraud.

- Ex-Governor Rick Perry has been hired to help a Florida dental insurance company obtain business through the state's Medicaid program. Reports show that the company had donated money to previous campaigns and one of the officers in the company had been appointed by Perry to head the Texas Health and Human Services Commission.

From the New York Times: The Political Consultant Racket

Politics - or at least professional politics - might be very different now due to Trump's emergence on the scene. You don't seem to need high dollar consultants to win any more. At least you don't if you are Donald Trump.

- Click here for the article.

Donald J. Trump is a nightmare for the political consulting industry. Not only has he insulted, among many others, Mexicans, Muslims, women, veterans and members of the media — behavior that would make any consultant cringe — but Mr. Trump has succeeded, so far, without much help from the professionals on whom other candidates rely.

Jeb Bush, by contrast, is a political consultant’s dream — mostly because his campaign has deep pockets. To date, for the 2016 election, Bush has paid over $50 million to a handful of political consulting firms, most of it for a media barrage that exceeds the amount spent by all of the other Republican candidates combined.

But for all those millions, Mr. Bush’s spending has not translated into support in the polls — he currently stands at about 5 percent nationally, compared with 38 percent for the front-runner, Mr. Trump.

Mr. Bush’s difficulties show that giving voters a steady diet of television ads is great for the consulting industry, but it offers diminishing returns for the candidate and turns off some voters in the process. Political consultants are not entirely to blame for this state of affairs, but they do benefit from a flawed system that they helped create.

Political consultants earn fees and commissions by turning the billions of dollars given to candidates, political parties and “super PACs” — like Mr. Bush’s Right to Rise — into the products and services of contemporary campaigns, especially TV (and Internet) ads.

More money means more ads, and more ads means more money. However, media saturation makes it more difficult to grab our attention, requiring more ads, and more money and contributions, to reach the electorate.

Consultants want their clients to win, but they also need their businesses to survive. Despite mounting evidence that the effects of TV on the electorate can be uncertain and often short-lived, television remains the single largest expenditure in most campaigns because candidates think they need it to win — and because it is the most reliable source of revenue and the most lucrative part of the consulting business. The economic incentives of the consulting industry are driving up the cost of campaigns.

Some general stories related to the 2016 campaign

These are all from The Hill - which I recommend as a news source. No real theme ties these together, but they should give fall 2306 students ideas about where to head with their papers.

- The man behind Ben Carson.

One of the most influential people in Ben Carson’s political orbit has no role in his actual campaign. Armstrong Williams, 56, is a black conservative radio personality, a real estate investor, TV station owner, publisher and former political operative for figures as diverse as the late Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
- Wikipedia: Armstrong Williams.

- Clinton embraces the left.

Hillary Clinton is embracing the left. The Democratic presidential front-runner has long come under fire from liberals for what they consider a hawkish approach to national security and a too-cozy relationship with banks and other well-heeled interests. But on the campaign trail this year, Clinton has adopted a tone — and rolled out policy after policy — that seems straight from the playbook of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the benchmark of liberal thinking on Capitol Hill.

- Sanders blasts Dems’ ‘abysmal’ turnout.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said on Sunday that “Democrats are losing because voter turnout is abysmal.” “I think we can change that,” Sanders said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”- FairVote: Voter Turnout.

- Kasich: GOP candidates painted into a corner on social issues.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a 2016 GOP presidential candidate, said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that Republicans have put themselves in a corner on social and other issues that make them look less compassionate to voters. "I think Republicans allowed themselves to be put in a box," he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “To me, conservatism is giving everybody a chance to be able to be successful,” he said.- OnTheIssues: Political Leaders on the Issues.

- Welcome to the social media election.

Social media is driving the 2016 presidential race, as candidates of both parties increasingly view Facebook, Twitter and Instagram as key battlegrounds in the fight for the White House. Campaigns have used social media in past elections. But in recent months, it has threatened to overtake traditional news outlets, paid advertising and the campaign stump as the top venue for candidates to rally voters, hit their rivals — and even make news. And those best able to harness the power of social media are showing they can use it to generate the most buzz.- Pew: Political and Civic Engagement on Social Networking Sites.

From the Texas Tribune: Texas Operatives Prominent in 2016 Campaigns

You want a job in politics?

- Read this and do what these people do.

The story lists the people from Texas - political professionals - who are working with the various 2016 campaign, declared or undeclared.

These are the staffers and advisers — listed by the candidate they're working for — who wield enormous power in the day-to-day mechanics and strategy of each 2016 bid. Some were reared in Texas and now live on the East Coast or are on the campaign trail. Others on this list may not be Texans by birth but are established figures here who spent at least a decade building their names in Lone Star circles.

Some related stories:

- So You Want to be a Political Operative.
- Politico: 50 politicos to watch: Political operatives.
- The Atlantic: The Life of a Political Operative, Explained.
- And for fun: - Shit Political Operatives Say.

Note that a degree in political science is not considered to be helpful to being a political operative - I agree.

From the Dallas Morning News: Political consultants battling it out behind the scenes

I have very little material on political consultants - which is a major deficiency.

These are individuals who have expertise in campaigning - and other related political matter like lobbying - and offer their services to candidates.

Occasionally we will have candidates speak to a class - especially when they see it in their interests to do so. The good ones have a consultant along with them, and they're the ones I'm especially interested in. Sometimes I can talk them into coming back by themselves to talk to the class since they can provide a much clearer inside look at the political / electoral process.

Here's a look at some state races in Dallas that feature the political consultants going at each other.

- Click here for the article.

The bitter, all-Republican fight for the Park Cities-based legislative seats did more than rattle the usually staid politics in that wealthy enclave.

It also provided an up-close look at two opposing political teams and their strategies, driven by attack ads that drew statewide attention — and even a misdemeanor charge against one of the candidates.

Some of the hard-edge tactics worked; some backfired. And, as in many campaigns, the final outcome has prompted a vigorous bout of second-guessing.

The GOP match-ups pitted North Texas newcomer Matt Langston and national political operative Jeff Roe against Mari Woodlief, president and chief executive of Allyn Media, a local advertising and public relations agency.

Here's a 2004 list of the powerful political consultants in Texas.

Click here for Blakemore and Associates - one of the more influential area consultants.

It's tough to make sense of the political landscape - on all three level of government - without appreciating the influence of these individuals.

Elections are sometimes won or lost based on who someone was able to hire as a consultant.

Will Tea Party success move the Republican Party so far to the right that Texas Democrats can become competitive statewide?

Normally the answer would be yes, but the following has doubts about whether this is the case - at least in the near term.

- Click here for the article.

In both 2305 and 2306 we discuss the electoral process and the impact that primary elections have on the nature of the candidates that end up on the general election ballot. Primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme, and they ensure that the candidates that face the general electorate tilt either to the left or right.

Sometimes a party's primary voters tilt so far to one side that they become unacceptable to the general electorate. The other party - with a presumably less extreme candidate - becomes more attractive to the moderate voters who dominate general elections. They vote for the candidate of the other party. This assumes that what drives the electorate in the primary is not the same as what drives the electorate in the general election. While Tea Party candidates have proven too extreme for the general election in some states - Delaware, Missouri, Nevada among them - this isn't necessarily the case in Texas. At least we will be finding out this November.

Political consultants don't the increasingly rightward tilt of the Republican Party will make the Democratic Party more attractive to moderates in the state now - but it might in the future:

The rhetoric that appeals to the tea party movement — including “closing down” the border, barring abortion for rape victims, the open carrying of guns and impeaching President Barack Obama — is polarizing to many moderate and Hispanic voters.

But experts largely agree it’s still not enough to entice middle-ground voters to window-shop at the Democratic Party. At least not yet.

“The more Republicans wander further and further away from the concerns of most Texans — not talking about education or the places they live — the faster they will hasten the return of the Democrats,” said Harold Cook, a Democratic consultant.
Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said that’s not going to happen in 2014. He agreed that if “the party moves so far right that it creates problems and voters don’t like the direction, yes, in two or four or six years, that will be reflected in how people vote,” Mackowiak said. “But I don’t see a short-term problem.”

In a traditionally competitive campaign, candidates move toward the left or right flank for the primary but tack toward the middle to win the general election. But for nearly two decades, Texas Republicans have had to worry only about the first round.

“All a candidate had to do to be elected to statewide office is avoid being the Democratic nominee,” Cook said.

Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest in 20 years. But last week’s primary brought out a type of conservatism that has given some moderate Republicans pause and given all Democrats hope, he said.

“The more right-wing folks Texas ends up electing, the faster the day will come when people will regret those elections,” Cook said.

But for now, the Democratic base is small in the state, Hispanic Texans don’t yet vote in proportion to their booming population numbers, and the Democrats lack the money and star power to pull enough voters to their side.

Get Rich Quick Time

A Houston Chronicle writer suggests that political consultants were a driving force in persuadign Governor Perry to run for presdient, not necessarily because they though he coudl win, or be a good president, but because they saw it was a great way to make alot of money:

From a consultant's perspective . . . a Perry presidential campaign "is retirement. This is a get-rich deal." Landing such a contract is better than one's ship coming in, Miller said: "It's, my ship is docked."

Campaign consulting is big business. According to a study of the 2004 election cycle by the Center for Public Integrity, national political candidates paid $1.78 billion to campaign consultants. Of that, $1.2 billion "went to media-buying consultants who handle ads." Most of that money pays for commercial airtime, the study noted, "but buried in those reported sums are the percentage-based commissions that consultants keep."

About "Gingrich’s Senior Campaign Staff Resigns"

For both 2301 and 2302, the story about the mass resignation of Newt Gingrich's campaign advising staff points out not just the importance of this groups of people, but also gives an indication of who these people are. They tend to (but don't always) shun the spotlight.

Weaver v. Rove

At the end of one of the stories in the previous post I saw the following text:

"The little things can haunt you down the road," Smith says, remembering 20-year-old feuds between Republican consultants John Weaver and Karl Rove that started in Texas party politics and reverberate today in national campaigns. "These things are dangerous in politics."


This got me wondering about the feud, so I pulled up some links that might tell a few things about how the political process works on the ground. Here's a great quote from one:

No one, though, knows Rove's vindictiveness better than John Weaver. Were it not for Karl Rove, Weaver might still be a leading Republican political consultant. In Texas, Rove and Weaver had been successful partners, until Weaver chose to go out on his own and build a client list. A few months later, Weaver hired an employee away from Rove. Before too long, as competition grew between Rove and Weaver, disgusting rumors began to circulate about Weaver's personal life, and reporters and potential clients wondered about Weaver's judgment. The stories, which many reporters have said originated with Rove, dried up Weaver's business, and he left Texas. Eventually, Weaver became the lead political strategist to Senator John McCain's presidential campaign. After McCain lost the bitter primary battle, Weaver discovered he was squeezed out of party work by Rove, who was now in charge of all things Republican. Weaver became a Democrat, an advisor to the Democratic National Committee, simply because Rove was never content to leave him alone.
- Wikipedia: John Weaver.
- Wikipedia: Karl Rove.
- Politico.
- The Atlantic.

Street Level Politics: Stone v. Spitzer

Here are a couple of juicy posts detailing political operative Roger Stone's successful effort to take down ex-New York Governor Eliot Spitzer.

Harris County Judicial Elections

A Rick Casey piece in the Chronicle gives us a peek at how county judicial elections are run.

Advice for Bill White ...

... from a political consultant.

Do National Political Party Committees Matter?

Not anymore, according to Matthew Dowd. Elections results seem not to be influenced by the state of either party. The conditions that surround a given election (the state of the economy, whether we are at war, etc...) plus candidate characteristics matter far more than campaigns and tactics. He points to polls that suggest that a generic Democrat would have comfortably beat a generic Republican in the 2008 presidential election. Obama's campaign mattered little.

He argues that the "political-industrial complex" plus the need to fill the 24 hour news cycle with campaign details gives the illusion that party organization matters. This is a false impression.

We've hit this point before. Political scientists who forecast elections tell us it all boils down to the economy and who voters perceive as being responsible for it, and the have the models to back it up. Campaigns and parties may not matter as much as we think, or as political leaders would like us to believe.