From 538: Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?

Seems unlikely.

- Click here for the article.

All of the respondents agree that Trump is not likely to get close to 1,237 delegates before June 7, when California and four other states vote. The closest Trump came was 1,088 delegates. And even the most optimistic Trump projection has him hitting 1,244 after all the states have voted. That leaves Trump with very little room for error to reach a majority of delegates without at least some of the currently unpledged or uncommitted delegates coming to his aid.

Part of the reason we’ll have to wait so long is how the rest of the calendarbreaks down. The month of April, which includes a lot of primaries in the Northeast, should be good for Trump. May has far fewer contests, and Trump is expected to do poorly in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington.

Not surprisingly, our respondents’ estimates differed greatly in a number of states. If you’re looking for the states that could be make-or-break for Trump, then look to Wisconsin, New York, Indiana and California. In all four, Trump’s expected number of delegates won differed by at least 36 among the respondents.

Super Tuesday Results

From the Texas Tribune: 2016 Texas Primary Election Results.
538: What Happened on Super Tuesday.
NYT: 2016 Primary Results and Calendar.

From the Texas Tribune: Presidential Candidates Start to File for Texas Primary

And it begins, officially. Since Texas is a red state, the time between now and the March 1st primary will be the most exciting part of the presidential election for us.

- Click here for the story.

After months of talking up Texas' clout in the 2016 presidential race, the White House hopefuls are beginning to take their first formal step toward competing in the state's March 1 primary: getting on the ballot. The period to do so began Saturday and runs through Dec. 14.

As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, three Republican candidates had filed, according to the state GOP: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and billionaire Donald Trump. The campaign of Texas' favorite son, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, expects to get him on the ballot in the coming weeks.

Lucky for them, it's not too hard to compete in the Lone Star State. The Republican Party of Texas requires candidates to pay a $5,000 fee or gather 300 signatures from registered voters in each of 15 of Texas' 36 congressional districts. That's a much lower bar to clear than some other states. The filing fee for Republicans in South Carolina, for instance, is $40,000.

On the Democratic side, the process is even easier. Hopefuls have to pony up just $2,500 or produce 500 signatures to get on the Texas ballot.

For more:

- Texas Republican Party elections page.
- Do you want to run for office as a Democrat?
- Filing to run for office as a Green Party member.
- Libertarian links to candidate forms.

The NYT has a great graphic with a history of party primaries since 1972

Specifically it shows when candidates for each part announced and ended their campaigns.

- Click here for it.

These links might also be good sources for your essays:

- NYT: Who Is Running for President?
- NYT: Which Presidential Candidates Are Winning the Money Race.
- NYT: 2016 Primary Calendar and Results.

2016 Primary Calendar

For informational purposes. Here's something we will refer to a few times this semester.

- Washington Post: Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works.
- Election Central: 2016 Primary Schedule.
- NYT: 2016 Primary Calendar and Results.
- Frontloading: 2016 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses.
- Wikipedia: Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016.
- Wikipedia: Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016.

Commentary on the first Republican Debate

A few thoughts about what did and did not happen last night.

Lot's of disagreement over how Trump did.

- The Hill: Trump dominates rowdy debate.

Donald Trump dominated the first Republican primary debate Thursday with a performance that was pugnacious, volatile and, as ever, controversial. Trump showed that he could take a punch, facing a number of tough questions from Fox News moderators that cited his business history, penchant for outlandish comments and erstwhile support for liberal positions. The businessman suffered just a few truly uncomfortable moments and avoided the kind of catastrophe some of his detractors had predicted. “The answers were good, obviously, because everyone thinks I won,” Trump told the reporters who gathered around him in the “spin room” shortly after leaving the stage.

- The Hill: GOP debate’s winners, losers.

Winners; Trump, Kasich, Rubio, ChristieMixed: Huckabee, CruzLosers: Bush, Walker, Paul, Carson

- Brookings: Trump disappoints as candidates spar in lively GOP debate.

Although it is hard to know the limits of what Trump’s supporters are willing to tolerate, my hunch is that the debate damaged his prospects. When challenged about numerous statements that seemed on their face to be demeaning to women, he had no effective response. His defense of bankruptcy declarations by several of his corporations was cynical and self-interested. If his debate strategy was to modulate his tone and convey more gravitas than usual, he failed to stick to it.

- Fiscal Times: Trump’s Debate Performance Should Kill His Candidacy…but Won’t.

Donald Trump delivered a performance at the first debate between the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination that ought to kill his barely two-month-old campaign. The real estate mogul and former reality television star was boorish and defensive when he was challenged on his past behavior, and when asked to explain his policy positions he was vague to the point of absurdity. Of course, vindictive behavior, intemperate outbursts and total lack of specificity on policy matters has pretty much been the story of Trump’s entire campaign so far, and he’s leading the Republican field by a wide margin. So it’s not really clear what his showing in Cleveland last night will do to his standing in the polls.

- Fiscal Times: Fiorina Trumps Six Other GOP Candidates in the ‘Happy Hour’ Debate.

Fiorina was sharp coming out of the box, and she quickly pooh-poohed a Fox News moderator’s question about her poor showing in the polls. “I would begin by reminding people that at this point in previous presidential elections, Jimmy Carter couldn’t win, Ronald Reagan couldn’t win, Bill Clinton couldn’t win and neither could have Barack Obama.

There's lot's more out there - mostly along these lines as I can see. Happy surfing.

From the Atlantic: Whose Party Is It, Anyway?

I asked some students to write a short answer to the question who controls each party earlier this summer. The point was to get you comfortable with the idea that the two major parties are highly decentralized - control of the party is uncertain and constantly influx.

The author argues that right now the Republican Party belongs to Donald Trump. Beyond that, one of the things at stake this election - with the Democratic Party as well - is what the party will stand for for from 2017-2021. At least in the executive branch - Congress is a different matter. As are the states.

- Click here for it.

It’s clear that a large swath of the GOP is responding to Trump’s call, but on Thursday, another segment seemed to be responding to Kasich’s. It’s anybody’s guess whose party this is. It will take the next few months of fighting to find out.

From Politico: Here Are the Real Republican Primaries

The author coins a few terms - prior to state primaries where delegates to the national conventions are selected - Republican candidates have to navigate the following. These are "the real 2016 contests." 

- Click here for the article.

The Laura Ingraham Primary: There are other top radio talkers, but few are more effective in their crusades than Laura Ingraham, the lawyer and best-selling author. She’s both unrelenting and effective, and she has proven unusually influential with a fervent fan base numbering in the millions.

The Memoir Primary: As a general rule, nobody reads political memoirs anymore—not even their authors. But on those few occasions when a political book is well-crafted and does sell well, it can be a telling sign of genuine grass-roots enthusiasm.

The Ben Carson Primary: Book sales aside, every Republican knows—even Ben Carson knows—that despite his remarkable performance in recent polls, the only scenario in which the accomplished neurosurgeon is the GOP nominee begins with: “All the other candidates are in a plane that disappears over the Bermuda Triangle.”