The Tea Party Movement seems to have died down, but abortion might be on the rise as a galvanizing issue for Republicans, as it has over the past three decades. A recent Gallup Poll shows that for the first time a majority of Americans (51%) call themselves pro-life, and the number who call themselves pro-choice has fallen from 56% to 42% since 1995.
The change has happened primarily among Republicans, and among those who have more rigid positions one way or the other on the issue. The number of Americans who say abortion should be legal under certain circumstances has been somewhat volatile (within a dozen or so points) but is essentially the same as it was in the mid 1970s (53% to 54%). The number who say it should be legal under all circumstances has dropped from 34% in the early 1990s to 22% now, and the number who say it should be illegal under all circumstances has risen from a low of 12% in the early 1990s to 23% now. But once again, the numbers are largely where they were in the mid 1970s'.
So I'm not sure if this poll tells us that much. After some shifts -- the pro-choice movement getting stronger in the early 1990s -- the pro-life movement has risen since then, but only to the point where they were 30 years ago. My hunch, based on the observation that political moderates tend to be counter cyclical, is the a dozen years of pro-life ascendancy (Reagan's presidency primarily and the increased power of the Christian Coalition) in the 1980s and 1990s led moderates to react against it. Now, Obama's victory, and the substantial margins Democrats have gained in Congress, has led the same moderates to sway in the opposite direction.
The number are relatively steady for Democrats and democratic leaners, the increase is among Republicans and Republican leaners. This to me is further evidence of hardening of positions among Republicans.
I think a caveat is in order before too much is made of the long term significance of the numbers. What does "pro-life" really mean? Though 51% of the population calls itself pro-life, only 23% support making abortion illegal in all circumstances. What do we make of this discrepancy? How rigid is the pro-life position? Can one be pro-life, but support abortion in certain cases, rape, incest, deformities etc...? Would a rigidly pro-life person accept someone willing to make accommodations as being pro-life as well? I see opportunities for internal divisions here, as well as further fluctuations in the long term.
Nevertheless, there are opportunities for Republicans to use the issue to rally the base. Obama's speech to Notre Dame, and the upcoming fight over David Souter's replacement on the Supreme Court will create more opportunities for the party to raise the issue. But as with the Tea Party Movement, the question is whether the issue can be sustained up to the 2010 elections. It has the advantage of already having been a factor in politics for over 30 years. But as with other issues, the question will be whether the hard core abortion opponents will demand full agreement from the moderates, or whether the need for purity will leads them to drive the moderates from the party. Recall that some Republican leaders argue that the party needs to get beyond abortion as an issue in order to regain competitiveness. The results of this survey suggest this is not going to happen.
