Tough to know at this point of course, but students of elections are making preliminary analyses and seem to think the size of the independent vote will be small in 2012. Recent polls have suggested that the independents that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2010 maye be shifting back again.
Chris Cillizza:
In American electoral politics, independent voters are the holy grail.
Thousands of hours are spent by political strategists and reporters (read: nerds) pouring over what makes them tick and how best to court them. (Both the Post’s Dan Balz and Fix mentor Charlie Cook have terrific recent pieces on what independents really want.)
The intensity over independents has ratcheted up in recent elections, as they have shown a propensity for wild swings — favoring Democrats by 18 points in the 2006 midterms only to support Republicans by a 19-point margin in 2010.
But, a look at exit polling data going all the way back to 1992 suggests that 2012 is far less likely to exhibit such a wide margin among independent voters as 2010 and 2006 did.
Dan Balz:
The president’s team long has believed that the greatest single cause of the Democrats’ poor showing last November was unhappiness with the economy, particularly among many independent voters, with concerns about federal spending a secondary factor. The president can’t afford to be seen as indifferent to something as sensitive as gasoline prices.
His position on the budget — urging bickering Democrats and Republicans to come to their senses — also reflects the knowledge that many independent voters dislike the political polarization and partisan bickering in Washington. Since the November elections, Obama has called more consistently for cooperation across party lines, and he showed during the lame-duck session his willingness to make deals with Republicans.
Charlie Cook:
One of my favorite questions tests public attitudes toward government’s role. The version that Hart and McInturff use gives respondents a choice between “Government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of people” or “Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.” The order is alternated to prevent bias.
Back in 2007 and mid-2008, the government-should-do-more camp was a slight majority, in the 52-55 percent range; the government-doing-too-much position was in the 38-42 percent range. Starting a month after Lehmann Brothers collapsed in September 2008 and when credit markets seized up, the results tightened up. The more skeptical view of government pulled ahead in the September 2009 poll, 49 percent to 45 percent. In the national exit poll taken by various news organizations on Election Day 2010, the government-should-do-more response dropped to 38 percent, and the more antigovernment attitude soared to 56 percent.
The government-should-do-more camp is once again a majority.However, in the latest NBC/WSJ poll of 1,000 adults (including 200 by cellphone; overall margin of error plus or minus 3.1 points), conducted from February 24-28, 51 percent of respondents said the government-should do more and 46 percent said the government was doing too much. One could conclude that the antigovernment bandwagon certainly isn’t picking up speed.
More important—and I have to give NBC Political Director Chuck Todd credit for pointing this out to me—independents shifted significantly. In the February survey, 47 percent of independents said the government was doing too much, compared with 60 percent who said so last October. Independents who said the government should do more jumped 13 points, from 38 percent to 51 percent.
