Palin's Base Shrinks But Intensifies - The Daily Dish By Andrew Sullivan
Sullivan highlights poll results that show that Palin's overall support within the Republican Party is diminshing, but those who support her do so strongly (Huckabee's supporters are similarly enthusiastic). He suggests, appropriately, that this makes her very strong in the primaries, though low overall numbers may make her uncompettive in a general election. Obama runs very strongly against her head to head.
For 2301s this is an important point. Primary elections - which are conducted by each party - are different affairs than general elections. Turnout is lower and tends to be composed mostly of hard core party identifiers who are often extreme in their ideological beliefs. Palin has been shown to be very popular among this crowd, but no so among the moderates who sit out primaries but do so in the general election. This tells us something about the power struggle within parties. Party leaders may attempt to influence which candidates are likely to get the party nomination, but the decision is ultimately up to the party base. It is not unusual for the passionate base to select a candidate unapealing to the calmer middle.
- Palin's Favorability Declines; Negatives Exceed her Rivals'
- Poll: Palin's numbers slide among Republicans
