We've discussed the volatility of the electorate in 2012, and evidence continues to mount that segments of the population that voted Republican in 2010 - after having voted Democratic in 2008 - might swing back in 2012.
This author wonders why and thinks there is a disconnect between the GOP base voter and the working class:
. . . the differences between white working-class independents and the GOP’s conservative base are becoming too substantial to ignore. The GOP base voter believes the deficit is as large a problem as the economy; the white working-class independent does not. The GOP base voter believes cutting entitlements is necessary to cut the deficit and that taxes on the rich should not be raised; the white working-class independent disagrees. The GOP base voter wants to stay in Iraq and Afghanistan; the white working-class independent wants to come home. The GOP base voter scorns Occupy Wall Street; the white working-class independent thinks the Occupiers have something of a point.
In the past, Republican politicians would respond to such differences by avoiding areas of disagreement. But that option is no longer possible. Avoiding the deficit now means America will turn into Italy later. Conservative Republicans need to understand why white working-class independents disagree with them. They need to see if there is a way to bring the white working class on board.
Romney doesn't seem to be an appealing candidate to this group:
While Governor Romney did well among Massachusetts white working-class independents in his 2002 victory, in the 2008 primaries he failed to make much of an impression among Republicans with a similar profile. His support was noticeably skewed to the affluent suburbs populated by college-educated voters. The polls in the 2012 race continue to show he runs well behind more conservative competitors among the non-college educated.
One could dismiss this and argue that these Republican voters will ultimately back whomever the party nominates. But a recent Wall Street Journal poll confirms that Romney’s problem extends to white working-class independents as well. The poll, released last week, found that an unnamed generic Republican beats President Obama among the white working class by 12 points, 48 percent to 36 percent. Paired with Romney, however, Obama runs even at 44 percent.
Why does this matter?
Despite all their advantages, Republicans won only 52 percent of the popular vote in the House last year. They achieved this total because of their record-high 63 percent to 33 percent margin of victory among the white working class. In other words, if the Republican nominee’s share of the white working-class vote slips below 60 percent, there is virtually no chance he will get a majority of the national popular vote in 2012. If the share slips closer to McCain’s 58 percent in 2008, Obama’s reelection is assured.
