Wednesday, August 29, 2018

From 538: What Went Down In Florida, Arizona And Oklahoma

A look at the primary elections held yesterday. Note what makes these distinct from general elections.

- Click here for the article.

As they say in the Cactus League, that’s the ballgame. Tonight’s slew of “weird” primaries did not disappoint. Here’s what happened:

The big headline of the night: Progressive Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, notched a surprise win in the Democratic primary for Florida governor, 34 percent to 31 percent, over moderate former Rep. Gwen Graham. It was less of a surprise, but the more ideologically “pure” candidate won on the Republican side too, with Rep. Ron DeSantis defeating Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (who was practically the state GOP’s anointed successor) 57 percent to 37 percent. It sets up a rollicking and unpredictable general election, in which Gillum will surely be hit for an FBI investigation into his mayoral administration and DeSantis’s bear hugs of Trump will be played on repeat for swing voters during commercial breaks.

Rep. Martha McSally defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona. The vote is still being tallied as I’m writing, but McSally is right around 50 percent and it looks like she’ll win by pretty much exactly the margin people expected. The once Trump-skeptical McSally did an impressive job appealing to the president’s wing of the party against two immigration hardliners who were arguably Trump before Trump. Establishment Republicans are also relieved, because McSally was by far their strongest candidate against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema.

For Arizona governor, Democrats also picked their strongest candidate in David Garcia. He’s (i) a Latino, (ii) an educator in a year that saw a major teacher’s strike in Arizona, and (iii) Democrats’ highest-performing statewide candidate of the last 12 years, having almost won his 2014 race for state superintendent.

Republicans picked businessman Kevin Stitt as their nominee for Oklahoma governor over former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, 55 percent to 45 percent. That qualified as good news for Democrats, since early polls showed their nominee, Drew Edmondson, narrowly leading Stitt but tied at best with Cornett. Outgoing Gov. Mary Fallin is terribly unpopular, which has given Democrats a real shot in this otherwise very red state.

Two potentially vulnerable Democratic congressmen survived primary challenges in the Sunshine State. Rep. Darren Soto crushed ex-Rep. Alan Grayson, a scandal-tarred progressive firebrand, 66 percent to 34 percent in Florida’s 9th District. Rep. Al Lawson fought off former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown 60 percent to 40 percent in Florida’s 5th.

The nominees were also decided in several other congressional races. Among the notable ones: the Democratic side of Florida’s 27th District, where close Clinton ally Donna Shalala defeated progressive state Rep. David Richardson by a closer-than-expected 4-point margin; and Arizona’s 2nd District, where moderate former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is currently leading progressive Matt Heinz, who lost this district by 14 points in 2016. (That primary is still uncalled.)