Friday, December 30, 2011

3 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Fall Mini

After a debate filled fall, the competition for the Republican nomination is about to get serious. Actual elections will be held and delegates will begin to be allocated to each candidate. Eventually we will get a clear idea of who the Republcian nominee will be. As you probably know, no Democrat has chosen to challenge President Obama for the Democratic nomination - so there's not much to follow there, but I want you to investigate and describe what is going happen in Iowa and New Hampshire for each party nevertheless.

So tell me the following: What is the Iowa Caucus and what is the new Hamsphire Primary? More importantly, how do each work? How do Democrats and Republicans in each state determine what level of support will be given to each candidate? Their processes are not the same, so give me some detail here. I'm interested in the mechanics of each event, not an assessment of who is likely to win - that's the easy part.

Let me know if you need me to clear this question up, but the goal is for you to become familiar with these two events.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The state of civil liberities - 2011

To add to this week's coverage of civil liberties, John Whitehead reviews the year in civil liberties and does not like what he sees. A combination of increasingly sophisticated surveillance technologies as well as laws and court decisions that allow for more aggressive policing, in his view, have led us to the brink of a police state.



Saturday, December 24, 2011

How Kim Jong Il Became the Most Successful Dictator in Modern History - The Atlantic

How Kim Jong Il Became the Most Successful Dictator in Modern History - The Atlantic

Are Polls Magic?

One author wonders; another debunks him thoroughly.

2301s: within a couple weeks we will be looking at polls and explaining that there is nothing magical about basic probability theory. It's a shame that people in the media do not realize this. Perhaps this explains ignorance in the general population.

Ideological extremisn and the 2012 primaries

This column hits a often repeated political theme - candidates for the presdiency must first win their party's nomination before they can run for the general election. Nothing new here. Generally one has to take more ideologically "extreme" positions to win the support of the party identifiers than is necessary to win the genewral election. Sometimes this ca the promary has adopted too many extreme positions to be competitive ion the general election.

The author wonders whether the Republican primary process might to this to the eventual nominee. As we approach our section on elections, it is worth sondering whether this is the best way to ensure that we elect the best posible people president.

The politics behind the payroll tax break extension

Andrew Sullivan breaks it down.

Will SOPA break the internet?

This builds off posts far below, but might an exhuberant proposal to protect copyright holders online ruin the internet? People on the left and the right seem to be rallying against the proposal.

Does the public have consistent opinions on the gap between the rich and the poor?

An ongoing theme in this class (one of them anyway) is whether the general public has the disposition necessary to be the basis for a system of government. My 2301 winter students will slog through Federalist #10 this week and consider this question and how the constitutional system is designed to compensate for the deficiencies of the public.

Here is the latest example. Andrew Gellman points to two well reasoned, well supported arguments that hold (1) that the public does not really care about the gap between the rich and the poor and (2) that it does.
A vast majority of Americans — including half of all self-identified Republicans — think there is “too much power in the hands of a few rich people and large corporations.” And a solid majority believes that “the country’s economic system unfairly favors the wealthy.” On the other hand, close to 60 percent of Americans do not see the country as “divided into haves and have-nots” and over 60 percent see “big government” as the biggest threat to the country in the future. What gives?
What seems to give is our ambiguity about certain issues compounded by the fact that public opinion polls ask questions that attempt to simplify issues, perhaps a bit much. Two questions, worded differently, which attempt to determine how people think about a specific item, can come up with two different opinions. Neither is wrong necessarily, we are all internally conflicted.

As we begin to dig into elections, parties and political conflict in general, we will see how these internal contradictions influence how political campaigns are organized and how people can be persuaded to see the same things in different ways.

The Political Background of the Celebration Christmas

Apparently the celebration of Christmas had a very different feel prior to the mid 19th century. It was quite rebellious.

Adaptive Authoritarianism in China

The New York Review of Books has an analysis of how China's authoritative system has adapted in order to more effectively calm local rebellions.

. . . “adaptive authoritarianism.” As Peter L. Lorentzen of the University of California, Berkeley, has written, officials view protests as way to gauge popular discontent. Small-scale protests function as a feedback mechanism for the government of a country without an active civil society or elections. Far from being a harbinger of regime change, Lorentzen argues that, in China at least, they can stabilize the regime.
So while the regime overall remains repressive, it is taking a more nuanced approach to dealing with discontent. Bending, not breaking -- if that's an appropriate analogy. Limits still exist on what peopel can protest however:

. . . the government only allows the discussion to go so far. It’s okay to say that local officials are corrupt or that the real estate deal in question was wrong. But it is not acceptable to have protesters link up with each other in a national network. And it is certainly not acceptable to criticize the root cause of Wukan’s problems—China’s lack of checks and balances that allow local officials to rule like warlords for decades before local finally explode and the problems are finally addressed. These deep-structure issues are still taboo.
The greater degree of economic freedom allowed in China over the past two decades has led many to wonder when - not it - calls for political freedom will be heard throughout the nation. Western political theorists have always held that economic freedom precedes political freedom and that the latter inevitable follows the former. Perhaps this is a way for the regime to delay that transition, if not prevent it altogether.

As Chinese have become wealthier and better educated, they are demanding more control over their lives. In a more mature political system, civil society—the press, courts, non-governmental organizations, and civic associations—could help address situations like a village protest before they require the direct intervention of one of the country’s most powerful politicians.
It’s no coincidence either that the Wukan uprising was spurred by another growing worry in China: the country’s mounting economic challenges. China’s real estate bubble is deflating, inflation remains stubborn, and exports are facing new competition. These can only add to tensions in society, forcing leaders to stick more and more of their fingers in the political system’s holes. But given the élan of China’s millennia-old bureaucracy, the system itself does not seem at risk, at least in the absence of some far larger precipitating event. In the meantime, the lessons of Wukan may be that the country’s leaders can leap from wall to wall, plugging leaks and keeping the system working far longer than westerners can imagine.

The regime may be more solid than we think.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Does Gingrich have a good point regarding the courts?

Newt Gingrich's recent criticisms of the judiciary have angered some, but Eric Posner thinks he makes a reasonable point. As we continue to wade through the Constitution, its appropriate to wonder who has the last word on the document's meaning. The Constitution itself says nothing about who gets to decide this, though Alexander Hamilton sides with the judiciary on the subject and lays out his argument in Federalist #78.

Give it a read.

Convicted for words, not deeds

Are First Amendment freedoms slowly eroding? Something to ponder as you begin looking through civil liberties next week. As in the previsou story on whether the bird flu studies shodul be published, is concern for security minimizing individual freedom?

Copyright and the Amen Break

One of the delegated powers listed in the U.S. Constitution concerns copyrights and patents. The digital age, since it makes copying so easy (as if you did not know that already my dear students), has renewed attention to copyright issues. Some argue that that this attention has been overly-zealous and may well stifle the creative process. Artists tend to borrow heavily from one another.

In this spirit, I found this great video detailing the creation and use of the "amen break" which was a six second drum break in a song recorded in 1969 which has become a staple of hip-hop, rap and drum and bass songs, as well as commercials. You've heard the beat repeatedly. It's a neat story.

  

New EPA Regulations

On the heels of the FAA story below, the EPA recently issued rules limiting the emmissions of mercury and other by-products from coal and oil burning plants.

The rules are titled the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. Here is a link to the presidential memorandum announcing the rules.

Today in the Community: December 21, 2011 : SCOTUSblog

Today in the Community: December 21, 2011 : SCOTUSblog

Texas pushes its election map : SCOTUSblog

Texas pushes its election map : SCOTUSblog

New FAA Regulations

In the news today is a new regulation by the Federal Aviation Agency regarding the amount of time pilots can fly - and the amount of time they are expected to sleep between flights. As with many things government do - or decide to do - it is in response to a recent event. In 2009 a plane crashed on route to Buffalo, New York, and pilot fatigue was argued to have been a leading cause of the crash.

This is worth pondering in 2301 since one of the ideological issues commonly debated is what the proper role of government ought to be. Does this fit within that framework or not? Apart from ideological considerations comes the real world question of how governmental officials are likely to react - and how the general population might want them to react - when a bad thing happens and we think we know why it happened and that it might be prevented in the future.

One other point for 2301s to consider is the nature of the decision - it was made by an executive agency charged with overseeing air travel. It was not done through a democratic process. Is this a problem?

Some related links:

- FAA Regulations.
- FAA Regulations & Policies.
- Federal Aviation Regulations (wikipedia)

- UPS Pilots sue to be included in the rule.
- Story from WaPo.

2 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Fall Mini

I'm heading out later today for the holidays so my access to the internet might be a bit sporadic. I want to give my 2301 mini next week's written assignment a bit early.

Next week's readings will cover the basic principles in the Constitution. As you'll see, each shares one major feature. They all involve divisions. Divisions are struck between government and the people in order to protect each from the other, the powers of government are separated and vested in three branches of government and power is also split between the national and state governments. None of these makes governing easy, but that is the intention. Recall that the simplest governing system - absolute rule by an autocrat - is also the most arbitrary.

The first written assignment - on the conflict over redistricting - was designed to get you thinking about the consequences of these divisions. The second assignment is designed to do the same.

If you have been following the news you have certainly heard about the ongoing struggle over whether to extend the reduction in payroll taxes (which fund Social Security), and for how long. You may be aware that the Senate and the House of Representatives have made different proposals about this matter and that the House refused to vote on a proposal that passed the Senate overwhelmingly. Clearly what motivated the Senate, did not motivate the House.

The merits of the proposal regarding extending the payroll tax reduction to the side, this is in many ways what each chamber is designed to do, check the actions of the other. So this conflict is a consequence of not only the separated powers and the checks and balances generally, but the bicameral legislative system specifically. If you pay close attention to the material presented, you will note that the House and the Senate have unique connections to the general population that almost gurantees conflicts of this sort.

I want you to explore that last point in your written work. Try to come to terms with why the House and Senate have come to different opinions on how to handle this issue and what this tells us about the differences between the two institutions. Is this conflict inevitable? I also want you to also consider the roles that political parties play in this conflict. We have yet to discuss them fully - but we will soon, so this is a good way to get familiar with what they are and what they do.

As with many of the written assignments I give you, I want you to struggle with the tension between what we might want a government to do - solve problems easily, efficiently and non-controversially - and what our government is designed to do in the Constitution: fight internally.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Federal Panel Requests Censorhip

Here's a civil liberties story - sort of. Scientists have apparently developed a highly lethal version of bird flu and the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity has asked that details of the research not be published. We wouldn't this info to fall into the hands of people who were inclined to use it.

The papers have already been written, so they are ready to be published.

The issue creates a dilemma, one recognized by the board: “Censorship is considered the ultimate sin of original research. However, we also have an imperative to keep certain research out of the hands of individuals who could use it for nefarious purposes,” said Michael T. Osterholm, a member of the board who is also director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “It is not unexpected that these two things would clash in this very special situation.”

The panel was created in 2005 for this very reason: to avoid slowing down progress without creating new tools for terror.


Here's an NPR story about the group.

The panel apparently lacks the authority to prevent publication - but I have a hunch that some mechanism could be found to prevent it. When we discuss freedom of the press we bring up prior restraint, which allows for the prevention of publications if there is a legitimate reason (harm to national security for example) to do so. But doing so compromises the free exchange of information that has been at the heart of American political, scientific and artistic life.

Similar issues have been brought up regarding information about creating nuclear weapons.

From the Washington Monthly: Progress Against Gerrymendering

This article might be interesting in light of this week's written assignment. Part of the reason we have the conflict over redistricting is because the process is dominated by political parties. This ensures that the desire for partisan advantage will drive the process.

Some states are attempting to make the process non-partisan. The author points an article in Slate - the End of Gerrymandering - which outlines what those states are doing.

Is such a thing possible in Texas?

From the Monkey Cage: How Much do Individuals Matter in Politics?

From one of my favorite websites, a question pertinent to this week's topic. Do individuals "ever really have [influence] over the evolution of politics in a country, a region, or even the whole global political systems?"

The question is asked as a result of the recent deaths of Vaclav Havel as well as Kim Jong-Il. The former was president over a democratic republic (albeit a recently created one) while the latter ruled a totalitarian autocracy. The story ponders the influence of individuals in each system and points out what this contrast tells us about what well designed institutions do for a republic - they make it stable.

The arbitrary nature of rule in North Korea makes it far more prone to instability (I suppose by definition) while rule by duly established institutions have procedures within them to ensure that decisions will be more or less stable. They can be subject to change, but not rapid, destabilizing change.

This is a central point I try to make clear in the course material. Well constructed institutions placed in a proper relationship with each other (a relationship that has worked itself out over time) are central not only to the preservation of liberty, but to the establishment of a stable society that leads to prosperity.




Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The Death of Kim Jong-Il

The death of North Korea's leader at the beginning of 2301 is actually fortunate since it allows us put to put a few items on this week's agenda in context. (For background click on Kim Jong-Il and North Korea.)

First, North Korea is organized as an autocratic - totalitarian state, meaning that one person possesses sovereign authority (and that it is by definition a tyrannical system - there is no limit on the power of the leader), and there is no individual freedom allowed - the lives of the people are organized according to the whims of the state. As you should figure out from the class material, autocratic systems are noteworthy for their arbitrary nature, and Kim Jong-Il was famously unpredictable - and apparently clever at negotiating.

Being a totalitarian state of the first order, North Korea has one of the worst human rights records in the world (these two tend to go hand in hand). As is common in such states, it is very poor and the per capita GDP is among the lowest in the world. The CIA Factbook places it 160th about of 193 countries, while it places South Korea 31st. the fact that these two nations are essentially the same except for their political systems has allowed for comparisons of the two systems. This illustrates a point made in the class material that free societies tend to be wealthier then repressive ones. Keeping the population poor is actually a good idea if one want to stay in power. Countries become wealthy because they allow their people to develop their talents and apply their ingenuity to problem solving. While this may lead to greater wealth, it also tend to incubate political opponents, not a good thing is one wishes to stay in charge.

We might want to consider what makes a society repressive. How can a population be effectively controlled? North Korea does so externally and internally. External controls are imposed when anyone who seems likely to be a dissident is punished. The nation (which is very secretive) has a system of prisons where political prisoners (itself an interesting species of criminal) and their families are sent. This is old fashioned coercion. But the more effective way to control people seems to be by doing so internally, controlling how they think (Orwell's thought control). Korea has an extensive apparatus designed to create support for their leader (of course, in a sense, we do too, but more on this later). One of the words used to describe this process is propaganda, but it can be deeper and more pernicious. The people of North Korea were born and raised thinking that all that they have is due to the beneficence of Kim Jong-Il. They may not be able to formulate thoughts that his rule was unjust and they should not be forced to live under coercive rule. This leads to an additional point worth pondering as we continue.

I spend a good amount of time in the introductory material detailing the idea that American government rests on the consent of the governed. This is the alternative to rule by coercion, and it is based on the idea that rational people are not willing to consent to be ruled by an autocratic dictator, but is this really true? One of the news items that came out when the death was announced was the public weeping and wailing that occurred across the nation when people learned he had died. We in the west tend to think these were faked, or perhaps coerced. It may very well be that these are genuine however, and the nation's attempt to control how people think and feel has been successful to the point that they willingly consent to a governing that system that we can hardly imagine accepting.

- Some useful links via The Dish.

A few thoughts to consider, I welcome your comments and input.

Monday, December 19, 2011

1 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Fall Mini

In this first written assignment, I want you to dig into the (deliberately) complex nature of the constitutional system. Few items make this complexity more apparent than redistricting. We will hit the various points about the entire process over the course of the semester, so some of this wont make immediate sense, but elementary searches - coupled with the information I give you here - should prepare you to write at least 150 words on the following:

Every ten years the United States conducts a census for the purpose of apportioning representatives to the U.S. House. This is mandated in the Constitution. Though not also mandated - nor even mentioned in the Constitution - each state has chosen to carve itself into districts and have each member of the their House delegation elected from the people in these districts.  During the spring of 2012, the census compiled the latest round of numbers and this past spring, the Texas Legislature used it to draw these districts. Several decades ago, the Supreme Court took the additional step of mandating that each district be the same size in order to ensure equal representation.

This is where things get interesting.

The data compiled by the U.S. Census department is nuanced enough to allow district boundaries to be drawn in such a way as to give an advantage to one group (those with control over the districting process) at the expense of others (those who lack such control). The term used for this process is gerrymandering, and while it is illegal, it is commonly practiced, especially here in Texas.

Minority groups in Texas - especially the Latino community - have argued that the plans drawn by the legislature dilute their political strength, illegally. While the census reports that most of the population growth in the state was due to greater numbers of Latinos in the state, the new redistricting plan does not allow the group any additional strength. So they have challenged the plan. In addition, the plan has not been approved (pre-cleared) under rules put in place in the Voting Rights Act of 1965. At the moment the plan is on hold until the Supreme Court rules on it early next year.

By now you should be a bit confused, and with good reason. Redistricting is the type of political issue that brings into play people and interests in each branch of government and on the national, state and local levels. All I want you to do right now is search through available information and determine who those multiple players are, what their role in the process is, and how they are in conflict with other another. I suggest simply doing a search on "Texas redistricting" to compile the information necessary to answer the question.

In other words, I want you to use this current issue to come to terms with the separated powers and the checks and balances, in addition to federalism. It may not make immediate sense to you, but it will.

Give me - at a minimum - 150 words.

Welcome 2301 4 Week Students

I never know quite what to make of students willing to spoil a nice break by taking a government class - but welcome aboard. We will begin the process of cramming 16 weeks worth of information in 4 weeks immediately. Refer to syllabus, get acquainted with the class' structure - it has a rhythm to it - and start reading.

This blog will be an important source of information to you, I'll post stories related to the topics we cover in class. This is also where you will find the weekly written assignments - which will be the post immediately following this one.

Be sure to become familiar with the range of links I have available on the left hand column. I will refer to them from time to time, but you should be able to find access to most any information you are interested in there. These are modified continually.

Anyway - let me know what questions you have and get to work.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Is democracy being theatened in Europe?

Paul Krugman thinks so:

Last month the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development documented a sharp drop in public support for democracy in the “new E.U.” countries, the nations that joined the European Union after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Not surprisingly, the loss of faith in democracy has been greatest in the countries that suffered the deepest economic slumps.

And in at least one nation, Hungary, democratic institutions are being undermined as we speak.

One of Hungary’s major parties, Jobbik, is a nightmare out of the 1930s: it’s anti-Roma (Gypsy), it’s anti-Semitic, and it even had a paramilitary arm. But the immediate threat comes from Fidesz, the governing center-right party.


Fidesz won an overwhelming Parliamentary majority last year, at least partly for economic reasons; Hungary isn’t on the euro, but it suffered severely because of large-scale borrowing in foreign currencies and also, to be frank, thanks to mismanagement and corruption on the part of the then-governing left-liberal parties. Now Fidesz, which rammed through a new Constitution last spring on a party-line vote, seems bent on establishing a permanent hold on power.


He presents a textbook case in how to establish a tyrannical totalitarian government:

Fidesz [the new ruling party in Hungary] is relying on overlapping measures to suppress opposition. A proposed election law creates gerrymandered districts designed to make it almost impossible for other parties to form a government; judicial independence has been compromised, and the courts packed with party loyalists; state-run media have been converted into party organs, and there’s a crackdown on independent media; and a proposed constitutional addendum would effectively criminalize the leading leftist party. Taken together, all this amounts to the re-establishment of authoritarian rule, under a paper-thin veneer of democracy, in the heart of Europe.

The State Republican Executive Committee reconsiders Rick Perry

The Dallas Morning News has an informative piece on the State Republican Executive Committee, which is a group with the state Republican Party composed of people elected in each state senate district (the state Democratic Party has a similar group). State executive committees serve as the state party's governing body.

The story argues that as a group they are disappointed in the governor's standing in the 2012 election. 

- List of members from the Texas GOP website.
- Here is a page from one of the Republican committee with links to resolutions debated by the party,

Top Lobbyists - 2011

The National Journal came out with its list of the top DC lobbyists. Following a theme we hit in both 2301 and 2302, many are former members of Congress - others were once top staff members:
The former lawmakers are:

•    Sen. John Breaux - Breaux Lott Leadership Group & Patton Boggs
•    Rep. Thomas Downey - Downey McGrath Group
•    Rep. Victor Fazio - Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld
•    Rep. Richard Gephardt - Gephardt Group Government Affairs
•    Sen. Tim Hutchinson - Dickstein Shapiro
•    Rep. Robert Livingston - The Livingston Group
•    Sen. Trent Lott - Breaux Lott Leadership Group & Patton Boggs
•    Rep. James McCrery, III - Capitol Counsel
•    Rep. Bill Paxon - Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld 
•    Rep. Vin Weber - Clark & Weinstock

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Bloggers are not protected by shield laws

In 2301 we covered shield laws, which are laws that give "reporters some means of protection against being forced to disclose confidential information or sources in state court." These laws recognize that a principle role of the press is to shine a spotlight - for the benefit of consumers - on activities that otherwise would not be covered. This creates a dilemma. Sometimes a report might focus on illegal activity, which prosecutors might wish to investigate, and we might as a society wish to be investigated. But we would not have been aware of the activity had the reporter not been able to guarantee confidentiality to his or her sources.

So the right to information (which of course is not clearly stated anywhere in the Constitution, just inferred as being part of the freedom of the press) can come into conflict with the responsibilities of the executive branch - law enforcement - to enforce the laws passed by the legislature. This is a great example of the balances that have to be struck between the competing needs of society - in this case the need to be informed versus the need to be protected from criminal activity.

Journalists, by being members of the press, are the agents that dig up and distribute information about societal issues, serve a privileged function since they provide information for us to chew on, but a recent case in Montana points out a consequence of technological change. Remember that journalists have a privileged status because they are members of "the press" people in a position to distribute information - but since most people own computers, or other devises that send out information, we can all be journalists in a sense.

Or can we?

In the case, a woman who calls herself an "investigative blogger" and has blogged repeatedly and negatively about a financial firm she is upset with, has lost a libel suit. The court ruled that Montana's shield laws did not apply to her. She is not a journalist.

Expect an appeal to the Supreme Court. As with the GPS case we discussed over the fall, the Supreme Court continues to wrestle with the impact our hyper communicative, digital environment has on the application of Constitutional principles.

- Montana Shield Law Protects Anonymous Commenters.
- Federal judge: Montana blogger is not journalist.
 

Friday, December 9, 2011

NLRB withdraws Boeing complaint - The Hill's Transportation Report

NLRB withdraws Boeing complaint - The Hill's Transportation Report

RIP Iowa Caucus

The Daily Beast's Howard Kurtz wonders if the debate format the Republican field has used to draw attention to themselves has made the Iowa Caucus - and the traditional boots on the ground campaign - a thing of the past:

The legend of the Iowa caucuses is that they require a candidate to practically establish residency in the state, meet voters in their living rooms several times—once is not
nearly enough—and build a ground machine that will entice people to brave the winter cold for three-hour community meetings.


But this year is different as the once-broke Gingrich has rocketed to the top of the Iowa polls, with with a New York Times poll showing him the overwhelming choice. Mitt Romney, too, has barely set foot in the state. The county commissioners and power brokers who are accustomed to having their ring kissed suddenly matter far less than Fox News bookers. Iowa is now the first outpost of what has essentially become a televised demolition derby.

How Elite Firms Hire: The Inside Story, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

How Elite Firms Hire: The Inside Story, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty

Thursday, December 8, 2011

The Confrontation Clause

In recent years the Supreme Court has given additional attention to the Sixth Amendment's Confrontation Clause. Defendants can confront their accusers during trials. What if, however, the evidence presented is expert testimony created by analysts? Do they always have to show up? And if they do, what about the costs that that requirement imposes?

The recently argued case of Williams v. Illinois presents this question to the court.

- The Bill of Rights Doesn't Come Cheap.
- ScotusBlog: Williams v. Illinois.
- Sixth Amendment's Confronation Clause

Gingrich's Influence on Congress

Nate Silver has a piece today that points out Newt Gingrich's influence on a principle change in Congress in recent history. Gingrich helped forge the 1994 movement that led to the Republican Party's control of Congress for the first time since 1954. Silver charts the ideological shift that happen as a consequence. He points out that this waqs the moment that "finally broke the New Deal coalition that had dominated American politics for more than a half-century, moving policy substantially to the right."

Is Justice for Sale? Continued...

In 2302 we finished our section on the judiciary by looking at judicial elections and the ongoing question whether large contributions to judicial elections - especially those with cases in the courts - distort the justice system and make it more likely that judges make decisions favorable to those interests rather than in the disinterest manner which is supposed to be a hallmark of the judiciary.

Here's an NYT story about such influence:

An examination of the Ohio Supreme Court by The New York Times found that its justices routinely sat on cases after receiving campaign contributions from the parties involved or from groups that filed supporting briefs. On average, they voted in favor of contributors 70 percent of the time. 

The Senate Block Several Obama Nominees

More tales of checking and balancing:

First: The Senate on Thursday blocked President Obama’s nominee to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as filibustering Republicans who oppose the very powers of the new agency successfully challenged one of the administration’s main responses to the financial crisis.

The nomination of Richard Cordray was rejected after Democrats failed to achieve the 60 votes they needed to move his nomination forward. The vote was 53 yes, 45 no.

Second: Senate Republicans on Tuesday blocked confirmation of Caitlin J. Halligan, a prominent New York lawyer, to be a federal appeals court judge, raising the question of whether a political deal to prevent the filibuster of most judicial nominations has broken down.

Democrats failed to pick up the 60 votes needed under Senate rules to break a filibuster of a confirmation vote for Ms. Halligan, a former New York State solicitor general. The vote to break the filibuster was 54 to 45 and was largely along party lines; only one Republican, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, favored allowing an up-or-down vote on Ms. Halligan, while no Democrats voted against it.

Third: Dr. Donald M. Berwick, the official in charge of Medicare and Medicaid, who became a symbol of all that Republicans dislike in President Obama’s health care policies, said on Wednesday that he was resigning.

Mr. Obama first nominated Dr. Berwick in April 2010, but he never received a Senate confirmation hearing. More than 40 Senate Republicans urged the White House to withdraw the nomination last spring, and many vowed to block confirmation.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Membership of the 112th Congress: A Profile

A statistical overview of the current Congress from the CRS.

From Bruce Bartlett: Gingrich and the Destruction of Congressional Expertise

Bartlett was a top adviser to both Reagan and H.W. Bush. He takes Newt Gingrich to task for dismantling vital institutions within Congress and making the institution less effective than it might otherwise be.

Supreme Court unlikely to allow cameras in the court for the health care challenge.

A not surprising commentary from the NYT.

Judge overturns SEC ruling

2301's should take note of this story. We're covering interest groups and the related concept of agency capture. Sectors of the economy are often accused of "capturing" the regulatory agencies that oversee them by working to have people affiliated with that sector placed at the head of those agencies. The assumption is that once in power, those people will use the power of the regulatory agencies to promote the interests of the economic sector, not the general public.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is commonly accused of doing the biding of the financial sector. This story not only explains how - punishing financial companies with fines while allowing them to not admit to doing anything wrong - but how an independent judiciary can limit this practice.

Consider this to also illustrate the checks and balances and the importance of independent judiciaries. Would an elected judiciary also be able to do this?

Does the freedom of speech include the right to tell prospective jurors about jury nullification?

The NYT details a case where a man - an advocate of jury nullification- who has been standing outside a U.S. Courthouse has been informing potential jurors of the practice. Not surprisingly, prosecutors don;t like this and want to punish him for doing so. They accuse him of juror tampering. Lawyers for the man charged argue that what he is doing is protected by the First Amendment.

Christopher Dunn, associate legal director of the New York Civil Liberties Union, said: “The government is dangerously wrong in claiming it can criminalize sidewalk advocacy supporting jury nullification. Other than the extremely limited situations in which someone seeks to influence a known juror in a case, jury nullification advocacy is squarely protected by the First Amendment.”

This story hits a few points covered in 2301, if not the very concept of consent and how it plays itself out in the governing system. Remember that the jury that acquitted John Peter Zenger effectively nullified the libel laws that existed at that time. It's worth pointing out that he is handing out information created by an interest group called the Fully Informed Jury Association.

Based on what we've covered in class - is this protected speech? How might a court rule on this case?

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

CBO: Obama stimulus helping economy - The Hill's On The Money

CBO: Obama stimulus helping economy - The Hill's On The Money

Structural or Cyclical Unemployment?

As we've noted in class, half of the unemployment rate is composed of people out of work for long periods of time, which may reflect a change in the structural nature of the job market. This means these people may not be able to easily find other jobs, and we may be witnessing an increase in the normal rate of unemployment. Here are comments related to that question:

- Why the Job Market May Never be the Same: The Great Recession has profoundly altered the U.S. labor market, says a growing number of economists. The problem is that unemployed workers are not finding their way to available jobs as smoothly as in past recoveries due mainly to a mismatch between the skills companies need and those workers have to offer. If these analysts are right—and there is mounting evidence in their favor—the goal of returning to the heady days of 5 percent unemployment, generally perceived as “full employment,” may no longer be possible, and policymakers may not be able to do anything about it.
- Gary Becker doubts whether structural employment has changed. He thinks high joblessness is due to extended unemployment benefits, an unwillingness to work for less money than they had previously, and a reluctance to move to where the jobs are.


- Richard Posner isn't sure that structural change can be ruled out. Jobs continue to be sent overseas where labor is cheaper and workers have fewer protections. and there's this: Persistent unemployment can feed on itself, because the unemployed have lower incomes and so spend less on consumption (and consumption drives production and therefore employment), and because the long-term unemployed lose skills. And if the pattern of employment shifts, many workers discover that they have not been trained for the types of work in which there are jobs.






The Beige Book

From the NYT, information on - and a link to - the Fed's occasional report on economic conditions throughout the US:

- The Beige Book.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Prop. 8 cases joined, moving faster : SCOTUSblog

Prop. 8 cases joined, moving faster : SCOTUSblog.

The Supreme Court may be ruling on gay marriage this term.

A missed opportunity to educate the American people about the budget

Bruce Bartlett wished the super committee and President Obama had spent more time explaining the deficit than playing politics with it.

For 2301, this touches on issues we talked about with public opinion and the media. Does the American electorate posses the knowledge necessary to govern itself effectively and does the media see any profit in teaching them?

When Did Liberals Become So Unreasonable?

When Did Liberals Become So Unreasonable?

When Did the GOP Lose Touch With Reality?

When Did the GOP Lose Touch With Reality?

Might Republicans Lose the Working Class vote in 2012?

We've discussed the volatility of the electorate in 2012, and evidence continues to mount that segments of the population that voted Republican in 2010 - after having voted Democratic in 2008 - might swing back in 2012.

This author wonders why and thinks there is a disconnect between the GOP base voter and the working class:

. . . the differences between white working-class independents and the GOP’s conservative base are becoming too substantial to ignore. The GOP base voter believes the deficit is as large a problem as the economy; the white working-class independent does not. The GOP base voter believes cutting entitlements is necessary to cut the deficit and that taxes on the rich should not be raised; the white working-class independent disagrees. The GOP base voter wants to stay in Iraq and Afghanistan; the white working-class independent wants to come home. The GOP base voter scorns Occupy Wall Street; the white working-class independent thinks the Occupiers have something of a point.

In the past, Republican politicians would respond to such differences by avoiding areas of disagreement. But that option is no longer possible. Avoiding the deficit now means America will turn into Italy later. Conservative Republicans need to understand why white working-class independents disagree with them. They need to see if there is a way to bring the white working class on board.

Romney doesn't seem to be an appealing candidate to this group:

While Governor Romney did well among Massachusetts white working-class independents in his 2002 victory, in the 2008 primaries he failed to make much of an impression among Republicans with a similar profile. His support was noticeably skewed to the affluent suburbs populated by college-educated voters. The polls in the 2012 race continue to show he runs well behind more conservative competitors among the non-college educated.

One could dismiss this and argue that these Republican voters will ultimately back whomever the party nominates. But a recent Wall Street Journal poll confirms that Romney’s problem extends to white working-class independents as well. The poll, released last week, found that an unnamed generic Republican beats President Obama among the white working class by 12 points, 48 percent to 36 percent. Paired with Romney, however, Obama runs even at 44 percent.

Why does this matter?

Despite all their advantages, Republicans won only 52 percent of the popular vote in the House last year. They achieved this total because of their record-high 63 percent to 33 percent margin of victory among the white working class. In other words, if the Republican nominee’s share of the white working-class vote slips below 60 percent, there is virtually no chance he will get a majority of the national popular vote in 2012. If the share slips closer to McCain’s 58 percent in 2008, Obama’s reelection is assured.

The dreaded You Tube moment

Here's an interesting read - it touches on points made in 2301 when we discussed the consequences of new media technology, in this case You Tube. The author argues that Republican candidates are mindful that their performances in the debates can lead to unwitting viral recordings that can undermine a candidate's appeal. Rick Perry's "oops" moment took off and had a life of its own since it was easily captured and distributed.

This has had an impact on how candidates perform: "No one has been more cautious in debates than Romney, the field's nominal front-runner. The former Massachusetts governor has worked to draw little attention to himself, choosing his words carefully when answering questions and often refusing to take the bait if a rival tries to goad him or get under his skin."

The story points out an important contemporary reality: ""The potential army of detractors or amplifiers has expanded exponentially, which makes the candidates more sensitive . . . Now, everyone's a publisher and everyone's a distributor. It makes the candidates realize there is no safe harbor anymore."

Environmental Interest Groups and the Obama Administration

Environmental groups have not been pleased with Obama Administration decisions they see as being too lenient on big business. An author writing in the New Yorker details how business and environmental groups have competed with each other in influencing the administration's decision about a proposed pipeline (by TransCanada) to carry tar sand from Canada to Port Arthur. The conflict between the two groups illustrates the "outsider" and "insider' tactics interest groups adopt whether they consider themselves to have or not have inside connections with decision makers.

Pro-pipeline groups were the White House and could adopt insider tactics: "The lineup promoting TransCanada’s interests was a textbook study in modern, bipartisan corporate influence peddling. Lobbyists ranged from the arch-conservative Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform to TransCanada’s in-house lobbyist Paul Elliott, who worked on both Hillary and Bill Clinton’s Presidential campaigns. President Clinton’s former Ambassador to Canada, Gordon Giffin, a major contributor to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential and Senate campaigns, was on TransCanada’s payroll, too."

Environmental groups had few internal connections with the administration so they adopted an outsider tactic to draw attention to their complaints: "On November 6th, exactly a year before the election, the protest returned to Washington. This time, twelve thousand people encircled the White House. President Obama was reportedly out, playing golf, but the message evidently got through to him. Four days later, he issued a statement saying that the decision on the pipeline permit would be delayed until at least 2013, pending further environmental review. In addition, in response to claims of conflict of interest, the State Department’s inspector general launched an investigation into the permit process. Since then, TransCanada, which previously insisted that no other pipeline route was feasible, has announced a new route through Nebraska."

The author concludes by comparing the focused agenda driven tactics employed by the environmnetal grousp here to the "the free-form, leaderless one waged by" the Occupy Wall Street movement. 

A few stories related to the failure of the "Super Committee"

The big news yesterday was that the "super committee" (the unofficial name given to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction) failed to arrive at an agreement to trim at least $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years - which is a pretty modest goal considering the total budget over the next 10 years is likely to exceed $40 trillion. The failure will lead to

For summaries of the process and what went wrong click here:
- NYT: The Plans for Reducing the Deficit.
- Click here for background from Times Topics.
- Supercommittee announces failure in effort to tame debt.
- Panel Fails to Reach Deal on Plan for Deficit Reduction.

And here are a handful of opinions about the consequences:

Roger Hickey of the Huffington Post is glad the super committee failed: "If the so-called "Super Committee" had made a bi-partisan deal based on the announced negotiating positions of the Republicans and Democrats on that panel, the result would have been higher unemployment, serious damage to the social safety net -- and worsening deficits." The consequence would have been higher deficits over the next ten years due to a worse economy.



NYT commentators point out that the triggers put in place by the deal's failure - plus the increased likelihood that the Bush tax cuts will expire at the end of next year could lead to recession: "A Moody’s Analytics report warns that failing a deal, the combined impact will amount to a “historically extreme” reduction in the deficit that could push the economy into recession. It notes that under current law, federal revenue would increase as a share of economic activity by 3.7 percentage points over 2012 and 2013 — the sharpest rise since 1969, when, Moody’s says, sudden tax increases “helped set off a mild recession.” Combined with the required budget cuts, the deficit would shrink to $510 billion from $1.3 trillion by 2013."

The Washington Post provides a guide to the rhetoric surrounding the debt debate.

The Christian Science Monitor provides a briefing page - what do you need to know about the committee's failure?

Monday, November 21, 2011

Written Assignment for 2302: Should judges be elected?

As we know, judges and justices on the national level are appointed to office in order to ensure that they have the qualifications necessary to fulfill the responsibilities of the office. One consequence of this is that these individuals are then immune from the pressures of the general population and can make decisions about cases based on their understanding of the law and the Constitution without any external pressure. Hamilton thought this was a good thing, but the Anti-Federalists did not. They though it led to an elite and detached judiciary (again - Hamilton thought this was the point).

The Texas judiciary is designed to be more responsive to the general population. It is elected to fixed six year terms which guarantees this. But since judges have to run for office, they have to campaign, and since campaigns need money, they rely on contributors to provide those funds. This leads to a problem. Are judges then likely to be swayed by those contributions? Can an elected judge be independent? Can a political contributor - especially a well heeled one - buy justice?

I want you to read up on this controversy and evaluate it. Think about this especially for Texas judges: Is Justice for sale in Texas?

Some links:
- State Judicial Elections.
- The Case for Judicial Appointments.
- Bill Moyers: Justice for Sale.
- Debate: Election of Judges.
- Sandra Day O'Connor: Stop Electing Judges.

Written Assignment for 16 week 2301: Comparing the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street

The Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movements have both flared up since 2008. Each is a group that developed - seemingly from the grassroots - as an expression of dissatisfaction from different groups within the electorate (older folks on medicare and younger folks with student loan debt - to be simplistic), and each hopes to achieve some success in having the needs of those groups redressed. Each is employing different tactics to do so. Beyond that, each also represents different issues that themselves may be more or less easily remediable.

I want you to analyze each group and compare and contrast the different tactics each is using to address the needs of their membership (assuming we are clear about who the members of each happen to be). How effective is each group in converting the grievances of its members into effective political action? 

Friday, November 18, 2011

Should Candidates Have to Pass a Civics Test?

A provocative question.

American Censorship Day

In case you missed it.

C-Span wants to televise the Supreme Court oral arguments on health care

Here's the letter sent to the Chief Justice.

The NYT agrees they should.

New Texas House District Map - Incumbents likely safe

Now that a federal court has overthrown the map the Texas Legislature drew for the Texas House in the spring, it has drawn a new one.

Related stories:
- First Reading: Map points to smaller GOP majority in Texas House.
-
Texas Dems could gain seats under revised voting maps.

Ross Ramsey points out that, as with previous maps, this one is drawn to protect incumbents and guarantee that the winner in November will be the member of a specific party. The general election really doesn't matter that much in Texas:
. . . if recent political history is your guide, you know that a large number of incumbents won’t draw serious opposition even in a redistricting year. They’ll effectively be elected when filing closes. And unless the judges do something shocking to the election recipes (as opposed to some limited surgery to make the maps legal), most of the political districts will remain toxic to candidates from one party or the other.

Most of the Republican districts — nearly two-thirds in the maps drawn by the Legislature — are configured to be nearly impossible for Democrats or Libertarians or anyone other than Republicans to win. It’s the same with the Democratic districts — there are just fewer of them.

The people who represent those districts will effectively be chosen in March, in the party primaries. The November election will hold some surprises. It always does. But the real decision-making in Texas politics increasingly happens in March.

From The Atlantic: What Do GOP Voters See in Newt Gingrich?

An article on the latest not-Romney.

Two twists in the health care challenge

Again from Slate, two unexpected twists have emerged in the health care argument before the court.

First, if the court rules that the ACA's individual mandate is unconstitutional, then this might mean that any effort to privatize Social Security or Medicare is unconstitutional as well.

Second, the major issue seems not to be the commerce clause question raised by the individual mandate, but a question raised by the Medicaid expansion also within the bill. Do federal mandates violate the Spending Clause of the Constitution? If so, this severely limits the ability of the national government to impose national standards at all.

Are the Occupy Wal Street Protests Covered by the First Amendment?

From Slate, a contemplation of the conflict between First Amendment rights to assemble and protest and the rights of government to secure health and safety:

You cannot fault Bloomberg for his goals; they embrace the fundamental tension at the heart of the First Amendment and public protest. Case law dealt the Occupy movement some fairly heavy cards. Their speech, on matters of core political concerns, sits at the top of the pantheon of what the First Amendment protects. And while Zuccotti Park is technically private, it functions as a public park, and was dedicated under local zoning laws for round-the-clock public enjoyment in 1968. Public parks enjoy an exalted status in the geography of the First Amendment, enshrined in the sort of language men like the first Justice Roberts used to conjure images of the Periclean agora:

Wherever the title of streets and parks may rest, they have immemorially been held in trust for the use of the public and, time out of mind, have been used for purposes of assembly, communicating thoughts between citizens, and discussing public questions. Such use of the streets and public places has, from ancient times, been a part of the privileges, immunities, rights, and liberties of citizens.

But practice First Amendment law long enough, and you learn that for every uplifting paragraph like that, there are a thousand cases bending an abstract right to the prosaic realities of protest.

Cain's Bodyguards Get Physical with Reporters - Politics - The Atlantic Wire

Cain's Bodyguards Get Physical with Reporters - Politics - The Atlantic Wire

Victory for Prop. 8 backers : SCOTUSblog

Victory for Prop. 8 backers : SCOTUSblog.

From the LA Times:

The California Supreme Court decided Thursday that the sponsors of Proposition 8 and other ballot measures are entitled to defend them in court when the state refuses to do so, a ruling likely to spur federal courts to decide the constitutionality of same-sex marriage bans.

The state high court’s decision, a defeat for gay rights groups, sets the stage for a federal ruling -- which could go all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court -- that would affect marriage bans outside California.

Background from the NYT:

Some gay rights groups were disappointed today when the California Supreme Court ruled that the sponsors of Proposition 8, ProtectMarriage, have standing to defend the discriminatory law, even though Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Attorney General Jerry Brown had refused to do so.

Previously, Judge Vaughn Walker, who ruled the ban against same-sex unions unconstitutional in federal court, had said that ProtectMarriage could not appeal his decision to the Ninth Circuit, because they were never able to prove that gay marriage harmed them in any way.

That, of course is one of the many huge flaws in the argument against marriage equality.

But, as we wrote in an editorial on December 10, 2010, denying standing to the anti-marriage crowd would effectively nullify the referendum, confounding the initiative process and the voters’ right to have their choices defended. That’s probably not the best way to secure equality for a minority group.





Wednesday, November 16, 2011

From Slate: Occupying the First Amendment What the actions over Zuccotti Park teach us about public spaces and citizen protest.

Some musings on the extent of the right of assembly.

Cain's Fall, Gingrich's Rise Result in Tie for High Intensity Score

Cain's Fall, Gingrich's Rise Result in Tie for High Intensity Score

Is this Internet Censorship?

From the NYT:

China operates the world’s most elaborate and opaque system of Internet censorship. But Congress, under pressure to take action against the theft of intellectual property, is considering misguided legislation that would strengthen China’s Great Firewall and even bring major features of it to America.

The legislation — the Protect IP Act, which has been introduced in the Senate, and a House version known as the Stop Online Piracy Act — have an impressive array of well-financed backers



. . . The bills would empower the attorney general to create a blacklist of sites to be blocked by Internet service providers, search engines, payment providers and advertising networks, all without a court hearing or a trial. The House version goes further, allowing private companies to sue service providers for even briefly and unknowingly hosting content that infringes on copyright — a sharp change from current law, which protects the service providers from civil liability if they remove the problematic content immediately upon notification. The intention is not the same as China’s Great Firewall, a nationwide system of Web censorship, but the practical effect could be similar.

The web may not remain be the forum for ideas that we think it is now.

James Fallows: Censoring the Internet: It's Not Just for China Any More!

More on the challenge to health care reform

Two stories in the Atlantic:

- Odds placed on possible outcomes in the court.

- Here are comments on an aspect of the case that is seldom discussed. While most attention is paid to whether act fits within the commerce clause, a second question may be more important. Does the Spending Clause give Congress or the Executive the power to dictate how money is pents once it is given to the states? For example, can it dictate how Medicaid dollars are spent?

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Perry wants a part time Congress and term limits on Supreme Court Justices

The NYT believes the proposal almost surely will never happen. Is he trying to get the other two institutions out of the way?

Monday, November 14, 2011

It sucks to be a millennial

From the Atlantic, an article detailing the impact the current recession is having on the Millennial Generation.

Court sets 5 1/2-hour hearing on health care : SCOTUSblog

Court sets 5 1/2-hour hearing on health care : SCOTUSblog

The Supreme Court will hear challenges to health care reform

From the Hill:

The Supreme Court said Monday it will hear the legal challenges to President Obama’s healthcare law.
The high court granted a hearing in the suit filed by 26 states and the National Federation of Independent Business. The court said it will hear the lawsuit’s challenge to the health law’s individual mandate — the requirement that almost all people in the United States buy insurance.

The decision means that the high court will be reviewing the healthcare law at the height of the 2012 election season. 

As they weigh the mandate, the justices will also have to consider how it affects other parts of the law. If they find the coverage requirement unconstitutional, they will have to decide whether to strike it down on its own or instead strike down the entire law.


- From the NYT.
- From the Wapo.



Sunday, November 13, 2011

Banned: Let There Be Light

Director John Huston produced a 1946 film about returning WW2 veterans with psychological trauma. The Defense Department suppressed it and did not allow it to be shown for 30 years. Why?

''Let There Be Light'' is a good, slickly made documentary about the treatment of psychoneurotic combat veterans at Mason General Hospital on Long Island. The treatment involved the thenrevolutionary use of truth drugs and hypnosis and, though the movie tells us more than once that the cures we see will have to be supported by long, intensive psychiatric care, the impression given and even encouraged by the film is of a series of miraculous cures.

In the late 40's, the Army seemed to feel that the film would scare off potential recruits. In his recently published autobiography, ''An Open Book,'' Mr. Huston reports the Army justified its censorship on the grounds that a public showing of the film would invade the privacy of the soldiers. He also reports, in passing, that he photographed some patients being given shock treatment . . .

From the Atlantic: I Was Wrong, and So Are You

We just wrapped up the public opinion section in the 16 week 2301, and I like to spend time discussing what researchers have uncovered about public opinion - specifically how people process information. Rather than use incoming information to develop opinions, people tend to evaluate incoming information based on whether it confirms their pre-held beliefs.

A recent article in the Atlantic lends some support to this idea. The article also shows how misdesigned studies can lead to wrong conclusions.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Do polls give us a clear idea about who is prefered in a presidential race?

Not really. This post touches on items we covered in 2301 dual credit classes today. It applies to elections as well. The winner can vary depending on how the poll or election is structured. Plurality, majority and borda count rules can produce different results.

The different types of inequality

In 16 week 2301 this week we covered areas of agreement and disagreement on values questions and mentioned that while most people would agree that equality is important, they tend to disagree over what exactly "equality" means.

This David Brooks commentary provides and example. He lists a couple of dozen types of inequalities and outlines which are socially acceptable and which are not.

Example:

Academic inequality is socially acceptable. It is perfectly fine to demonstrate that you are in the academic top 1 percent by wearing a Princeton, Harvard or Stanford sweatshirt.

Ancestor inequality is not socially acceptable. It is not permissible to go around bragging that your family came over on the Mayflower and that you are descended from generations of Throgmorton-Winthrops who bequeathed a legacy of good breeding and fine manners.

The Media and Syria

Next week, my 16 week 2301s begin studying the freedom of the press and the media. In order to frame the discussion, here's a link to a recent Andrew Sullivan post that points out the importance of media technology that allows people to get a clear picture of what is happening inside a country like Syria.

As media technology allows us to take closer looks at what sorts of things are happening around the world, it becomes more difficult to plead ignorance.

From the NYT: Public Opinion and the Occupy Movement

The New York Times has an interactive feature designed to dig into attitudes about the movement. 

Perry and Cain's Damage Control

The sign of an effective campaign is its ability to control any damage resulting from a candidate's mistake, or the sudden scandal. Here's a comparison of the relative abilities of the Perry and Cain campaigns to deal with each.

- Top Ten Rick Perry Excuses.

1. I just learned Justin Bieber is my father.
- not bad

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Obama Back to Even With "Generic" Republican Candidate

Obama Back to Even With "Generic" Republican Candidate. 


Here's a prediction that the election will be close one way or another, here's another saying he has a good chance of being re-elected.

The later prediction is based on a formula cal;led the "Time for Change" model:

The Time-for-Change model is based on three predictors: the growth rate of the economy in the second quarter of the election year (Q2GDP), the president’s net approval rating in late June or early July of the election year (JUNEAPP) and the time-for-change factor (CHANGE), which takes on the value of zero if the president’s party has been in office for one term and one if the president’s party has been in office for two or more terms. The model predicts the incumbent party’s share of the major party vote (PV).

Was there a backlash against the Tea Party in last Wednesday's election?

Are swing voters still swinging?

Does this tell us anything about what might or might not happen in November 2012?

- OHIO TURNS BACK A LAWLIMITING UNIONS’ RIGHTS
-
MISSISSIPPI VOTERSREJECT ANTI-ABORTION MEASURE