Obama Back to Even With "Generic" Republican Candidate.
Here's a prediction that the election will be close one way or another, here's another saying he has a good chance of being re-elected.
The later prediction is based on a formula cal;led the "Time for Change" model:
The Time-for-Change model is based on three predictors: the growth rate
of the economy in the second quarter of the election year (Q2GDP), the
president’s net approval rating in late June or early July of the
election year (JUNEAPP) and the time-for-change factor (CHANGE), which
takes on the value of zero if the president’s party has been in office
for one term and one if the president’s party has been in office for two
or more terms. The model predicts the incumbent party’s share of the
major party vote (PV).
