Thursday, May 31, 2012

Thanks 3 Week Mini

I thought we had a good little bunch of students for the three week mini and I'm glad some of you will signing up for round two this summer. Thanks for the good work.

From NPR: Why Do People Choose Political Loyalties Over Facts?

This a great question, and it highlights a commonly noted - if problematic - reality. People who identify with different political parties look at the world in substantively different ways, and these viewpoints tend to be conditioned by the cues they receive from party leaders. This goes beyond party identification. Ideology and group identification, among other many other criteria that people use to identify themselves can distort how people look at the world.

The following story is the latest in a long line of stories on this subject. The author begins by noting that Democrats and Republicans have shifted their opinions recently on whether presidents have any direct impact on gas prices:


When pollsters ask Republicans and Democrats whether the president can do anything about high gas prices, the answers reflect the usual partisan divisions in the country. About two-thirds of Republicans say the president can do something about high gas prices, and about two-thirds of Democrats say he can't.

But six years ago, with a Republican president in the White House, the numbers were reversed: Three-fourths of Democrats said President Bush could do something about high gas prices, while the majority of Republicans said gas prices were clearly outside the president's control.

The flipped perceptions on gas prices isn't an aberration, said Dartmouth College political scientist Brendan Nyhan. On a range of issues, partisans seem partial to their political loyalties over the facts. When those loyalties demand changing their views of the facts, he said, partisans seem willing to throw even consistency overboard.

What is consistent is that identifiers of one party will believe anything that will put the member of the other party in a negative light. If facts get in the way so be it. Andrew Sullivan argues that it might be best to think of loyalty to a party like loyalty to a sports team. Have you ever changed your opinion of a player you once despised because he gets traded to your team? What's with that - he's still the same person, just wears a different uniform.

Now while we may be critical - justly - of this tendency, its instructive to note that this is fact how people behave politically. One of the point hit repeatedly in class is that the framers of the Constitution assumed that the negative aspects of human nature - of which this is an example - could not be readily cured. The constitutional order had to compensate for it. So a good question for us to raise in class is whether the Constitution does so.
 

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Can Ron and Rand Paul take over the Republican Party?

They're trying.

The author suggests they are building a "libertarian machine."

Kuffner comments on state primary results

His post on the Democrats is here, and on the Republicans is here.

County Results for 2012 Texas Primary

Below you'll find links to the Elections Divisions of area County Clerks offices. They are responsible for running state and national elections, including primaries. They also run elections in single purpose governments like Independent School Districts. Cities are responsible for conducting their own elections, though sometimes they contract with the county to have them carry it out.  

For Brazoria County:
- Democratic Primary (3,331 votes cast)
- Republican Primary (22,834 votes cast)
- Total Turnout - 26,830 - 7.88%

For Fort Bend County:
- Democratic Primary (9,871 votes cast)
- Republican Primary (36,749 votes cast)
- Total Turnout - 47,627 - ?%

For Galveston County:
- Democratic Primary
- Republican Primary
- Total Turnout -
(website down as of this posting)

For Harris County:
- Democratic Primary (71,360 votes cast)
- Republican Primary (160,752 votes cast)
- Total Turnout - 238,545 - 12.54%

For further information on the specific job descriptions of the Elections Division in each county click on Travis County's website here. The Texas Secretary of State's website also has information about how elections are to be conducted in the state, including this comprehensive page detailing the laws and procedures pertaining to County Clerks. Enjoy.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

From Slate: The Death of the Hunch

Here's a look into the current state of campaigning, at least on Obama's side. It involves randomized tests, data, and empirical analysis:

The Obama campaign’s “experiment-informed programs”—known as EIP in the lefty tactical circles where they’ve become the vogue in recent years—are designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups and surveys. The method combines the two most exciting developments in electioneering practice over the last decade: the use of randomized, controlled experiments able to isolate cause and effect in political activity and the microtargeting statistical models that can calculate the probability a voter will hold a particular view based on hundreds of variables.

Obama’s campaign has already begun rolling out messages to small test audiences. Analysts then rely on an extensive, ongoing microtargeting operation to discern which slivers of the electorate are most responsive, and to which messages. This cycle of trial and error offers empirically minded electioneers an upgrade over the current rĂ©gime of approaching voters based on hunches.
Here's a related story - regarding the habits of shoppers and how to influence them.

The Latest on differences between Democrats and Republicans

Charles Blow highlights two recent polls. One from MSNBC and one from Gallup.

5 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Mini 3 Week Spring 2012

In the interest of time management (yours), this is the last short written assignment. Like the other's its tied into the paper. I want you to give me an introductory sentence and a first draft - of your work. This will let me make suggestions for how to improve it. Remember that grammar and organization counts as much as content. Get this to me by the 29th so you I can make corrections before you turn the last one in. Earlier is better.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Politicizing civil rights enforcement

I ran across a couple stories that illustrate something we covered in class - presidents can impact civil rights policies by the choices they make about who runs executive agencies charged with implementing civil rights policy.

These touch on efforts of the Bush Administration to minimize the effectiveness of the Civil Rights Division of the Justice Department by staffing it with lawyers opposed to its mission.

- Report Examines Civil Rights During Bush Years
- The Battle for Voting Rights.

The Voting Rights Act challenged; upheld in the DC court

Here is a topic that straddles our recent discussion of both Civil Rights and our upcoming one on elections: The DC appellate court upheld the Voting Rights Act, meaning that for the second time in a handful of years the Supreme Court will be hearing challenges to the Voting Rights Act - a piece of legislation that impacts both elections and civil rights policies. The intent of the act was take tactics used by the majorities in certain areas of the country - notably the South - illegal. It also defined ways to determine which jurisdictions were engaging in discriminatory activities and established that any changes to election laws in those districts had to be pre-cleared by a panel of federal judges in order to ensure that they did not further discriminate against minorities.

The Justice Department is using this authority to challenge Texas' voter ID and Texas is fighting back by leading the charge against pre-clearance. Conservatives on the court were skeptical of the requirement in a case from Austin a few years ago, and signalled they may be willing to overturn the requirement.

A ScotusBlog writer outlines the issues in the case. One of the arguments made is that the formula used to determine which districts should be pre-cleared and almost 40 years old and may no longer accurately reflect which districts are engaging in discriminatory behavior.

A related stories:

- Do we still need the Voting Rights Act?

Monday, May 21, 2012

4 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Mini 3 Week Spring 2012

Today we discussed factions and the inevitability of diverse interests in a civilized society. This can apply to Texas - more or less. I want you to consider this in terms use this apply this topic to your paper. As best as you can determine, what interests are being represented by the different candidates in the race? What different interest groups are backing the various candidates? Can you detect major conflicts between competing interests based on which interests support each candidate? Try to determine why this conflict exists.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Is it time to end "fee for service?"

The director of health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center says it is, and that government payments for health care should be based on quality not quantity. She focuses on the fee for service model specifically.

Though Medicare became law almost half a century ago, its payment system is still essentially intact: a "fee-for-service" (FFS) reimbursement system that pays providers for each intervention they perform, without regard to whether the treatment improves patient health. Health spending has soared since then: National health expenditures were $27.1 billion in 1960; today they are over $2.6 trillion.

The FFS system cemented the practice of largely focusing on treating disease instead of on preventing patients from getting sick in the first place.

Around the turn of the 20th century, this treatment model was appropriate. Acute, infectious illness, such as tuberculosis or influenza, were major causes of death at this time. But today, chronic disease -- long-term conditions requiring careful management -- are far more prevalent and costly.
The difficulty will be political. She outlines various existing laws that make it difficult to transition out of this model. She might also add that among the groups that will oppose this transition are those that benefit financially from it. If health care costs are cut, those cuts will affect someone's pocketbook.

A classic mobilization election

From the National Journal, an argument that the upcoming general election will be won or lost based on which side can turnout the vote. The undecided middle - the folks on the center of the electorate who can vote either way - is very small:

. . . the numbers suggest there are far fewer undecided voters now. While more Americans are registering as independents, fewer are actually open to voting for either party. Analysis of recent Pew Research Center data by Brookings Institution scholar William Galston shows just 23 percent of Americans fall into the swing-voter category; by contrast, 31 percent of voters met that criteria in May 1992. State polls tell the same story. Quinnipiac University, which polls in several key swing states, hasn’t found either Obama or presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney ahead by more than the mid-single digits in Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania over the last year. In most battleground states, there are few examples of either leading by more than the margin of error in any public polling.

“Like George W. Bush, Barack Obama has turned out to be a polarizing president who has induced many voters to choose sides very early in the process,” Galston wrote recently. “So the enthusiasm of core supporters—their motivation to translate their preference into actual votes—will make a big difference.”

Friday, May 18, 2012

3 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Mini 3 Week Spring 2012

This will be the last short written assignment for this week, I'll cancel the fourth in order to free up some of your time. Again, this is related to your 1000 word assignment.

Now that you've selected a competitive primary and analyzed the district, I want you to look at the candidates for the race and explain their similarities and differences? How is a voter to make a distinction between them?

Thursday, May 17, 2012

On Establishment Conservatives and Movement Conservative.

Robert Miller's blog today - he's a public law guy at Locke Lord - has a post pointing out that many many Republican Texas Legislature races feature competition between an establishment conservative and a movement conservative. There are no moderates in the Republican Party anymore. They have been pushed to the side by the Tea Party.

What's the difference between the two?

The former is a fiscal conservative willing to recognize a role for government to play in educating the workforce, building roads, providing water and the various other items necessary for civilized life.

The latter "believes that government, by definition, is inherently wasteful and inefficient and that we can continuously cut government spending and still provide necessary services."

Movement conservatives tend to be more passionate about their positions and are in a better position to win primary elections. If voter turnout is low in the Republican Primary on election day, expect them to do well. This can have one of two outcomes, either the state drifts further to the right, or the general population - assuming they are more moderate than the movement conservatives - finds them too extreme and votes for Democrats in November.

From the NYT: Whites Account for Under Half of Births in U.S.

White births accounted for less than half of all births over the past 12 months.

“This is an important tipping point,” said William H. Frey, the senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, describing the shift as a “transformation from a mostly white baby boomer culture to the more globalized multiethnic country that we are becoming.”


So what now? How will white folks deal with being just another minority?

Also taken: HD 11, SD 11, and HD 12 or 14

Take note.

I still haven't received proposals from some of you.

SD 25 has been claimed

now you know

Various stories related Texas House and Senate Races

Expect a handful of these in the next few days.

This may be a bit dated, but Burnt Orange Report (which tilts a bit left) has two separate pages previewing the Texas House and Texas Senate Races. It has a third section on the Democratic Primaries.

2012 Texas Public Higher Education Almanac

Just released by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (the gubernatorially appointed board that makes policy recommondations for higher education in the state), an almanac with data relating to institutional performance.

Enjoy.

District analyses

I mentioned in class that you can get analyses of the Texas House and Senate districts by going to their respective websites - specifically the pages with lists of each member. Here are direct links to them:

- Texas House Members.
- Texas Senate Members.

Look for "district analyses." It should be sufficient to help you address the second written assignment.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Click here to find competitive races

The Texas Business Roundtables website contains a handy chart that makes it easy to find them.

The Constitution in Exile Movement

Jeffrey Rosen of the New Republic thinks that a recent opinion written by Janice Rogers Brown indicates that the Constitution in Exile Movement - the group of conservative legal scholars and judges who are intent on rolling back New Deal policies - is about to make waves and take a more active role in making decision on economic regulation.

He predicts that we will soon be seeing more conservative judicial activism. I strongly suggest a read.

2 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Mini 3 Week Spring Class

I'm going to keep asking you questions designed to get going on the 1000 word paper. This one ties the topic into something we discussed in class yesterday - ideology.

We defined it as a set of issue positions based on some underlying value.

Different districts throughout the state are populated by people who have particular ideological viewpoints. Obviously there is diversity in all districts throughout the state, but some opinions dominate others. I want you to look at the nature of the district you are analyzing and describe its ideological leanings, including any conflicts that exist within it.

Is it mostly conservative? If so why? Is it mostly liberal? If so why? What are the dominant concerns within the districts?

Races claimed so far

Students have claimed the following races, so you'll have to find something else to write up.

- HD 75 - two democrats are running against each other
- The Democratic contest for the US Senate Seat.

My preference is that you look at a Texas House or Senate seat - but since its a short semester you can look at any race as long as it is in the state of Texas.

Houston Mayor Introduces Budget

Total city spending is $4.5 billion.

Another wrongful execution?

Again from the HC, a story that raises questions about eyewitness procedures in cases that could lead to the death penalty and whether Texas executed the wrong person.

Of four people who saw events connected to the crime, only one, car salesman Kevan Baker, saw Lopez struggle with her assailant, the journal article says. Baker initially described a man who did not resemble DeLuna but changed his story after police brought DeLuna to the store.

Baker later told researchers he was only 70 percent sure of his identification, the journal says. Had police not told him DeLuna had been apprehended nearby, he would have been only 50 percent certain, he said.
The eyewitness process - line ups etc - has been subjected to increased scrutiny over the years. The story outlines one proposal:

Provisions of a suggested reform package prepared by Sam Houston State University criminologists require that the officer conducting a lineup not know who the suspect is. "Show ups," in which police present a suspect to witnesses shortly after arrest, are discouraged, and photo or live lineups must contain innocent people who resemble the suspect.

Law enforcement agencies must implement the model plan or comparable reforms of their own devising by September.
Just out of curiosity, how many of these before public opinion about the death penalty shifts?




Bungled Galveston Elections

From today's HC, a story that helps us walk through the personnel that manage - or mismanage - elections.

Monday, May 14, 2012

1 - Written Assignment GOVT 2301 Mini 3 Week Spring Class

For the first daily written assignment I want you to refer to the syllabus and tell me what race you plan on writing about for your 1000 word assignment. I want you to outline one of the more disputed races to be the Democratic or Republican nominee for the general election to the Texas House or Senate later this year. Which one will it be? Refer to the syllabus for a few helpful links, but you should be able to find some on your own.

I want everyone in class to look at a different race, so let me know which one you want to write about asap. First come first served. Describe what it is about this race that interests you.

150 words. Turn it into Blackboard.  

Welcome spring 2012 GOVT 2301 - IM3

Now comes the 3 week mini.

Welcome brave souls. We are going to try to cover 16 weeks worth of material in 15 calendar days. Notice the syllabus posted on the right hand column. We will run through it in class tomorrow. Everything you need to do well in the class can be found on this site. I suggest looking through it. You'll notice a large number of links toward the bottom of the page in different categories. They are designed to give you quick access to the information that will let you succeed at the level you intend to.

Send questions asap - I'll send responses right back.

Farewell Spring 2301 and 2302

As things pile up toward the end of the semester I tend to stop posting items relevant to the class. I don't intend to, but I get overwhelmed. My apologies because a handful of topics related to the class have come and gone, but I'll hit these as appropriate in future semesters.

You are welcomed to continue following the material presented online and I hope you send a shout out from time to time. Introductory classes by their nature are somewhat superficial, but I hope enough has been conveyed to give you an understanding of the governing process on the national and state level; something that gives you some context for figuring out the various events that occur daily.

Thanks, K

Friday, May 4, 2012

Facebook is a clever CIA operation



Missed Dealine

For 2301s and 2302s, The deadline for written work was today at noon - about ten minutes ago.

I've already heard of problems with blackboard, so I'll extend the deadline for the final report (and only the final report) soon.

Michael Lind on the federal government's ongoing involvement in the economy

A great extended interview in Salon. The author blows away some assumptions about what factors led to the development of the American economy.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Does Houston - or Texas - have business leaders anymore?

Paul Burka's surprising answer is no. He responds to a Houston Chronicle article wondering why Houston's business leaders don't stand up to Governor Perry's refusal to address the state's crumbling infrastructure by stating:

there are no business leaders in this state. Ken Lay was the last one (as painful as it is for me to write that), and his business turned out to be a house of cards. The reason that today’s business leaders aren’t leaders is that Houston and Dallas have become outposts of Wall Street. The local banks are run by people who are sent to Texas, stay for five years, and recycle themselves somewhere else. They have no long-term stake in the success of their temporary place of residence, much less Texas; they only care about what they can contribute to their institution’s bottom line while they are here. The Greater Houston Partnership is a shell of what it used to be. George R. Brown would weep at its lack of influence. Bob Lanier must be appalled. It is just another Perry echo chamber. It is inconceivable that CEO Jeff Moseley would challenge Perry’s budget plans. If he dared to try, I suspect he would be out of a job.

The Greater Houston Partnership - once very powerful - is now just a shell, a rubber stamp for the governor.

Some thoughts on compromise

A worthwhile review of two books on the subject. It would be useful to consider, every step in take in this class, about why compromise is so difficult, and the degree to which this is - and possibly isn't - an obstacel to good government. 

Trust in institutions at all time low

The National Journal has a lengthy piece that points out that trust in all institutions in society - not just government - is at a low point. Perhaps this is a natural consequence of having undergone very nasty recession, but its worth considering how this impacts that ability of the nation to rule itself. As the spring semester winds down, this allows us to circle back to one of our original questions: How viable is the American Experiment? Can we keep the republic?

Some related stories:
- Gallup Poll: Trust in Government.
- Pew Research Center: Public Trust in Government: 1958 - 2010.
- Related NPR story.
- Polling Report: Trust in Major Institutions