The theory of critical elections identifies elections that lead to a major and lasting shift in political power and party coalitions. There is scholarly debate on exactly which elections qualify as "critical," but several are widely cited as having produced long-term electoral realignments in the United States.
American critical elections
- 1800: Thomas Jefferson's victory over incumbent John Adams marked the first peaceful transfer of power between opposing parties and the decline of the Federalist Party.
- - Election of 1800.
- - Presidency of Thomas Jefferson.
- 1828: Andrew Jackson's election is associated with the rise of mass democracy and the development of the modern Democratic Party.
- - Election of 1828.
- - Presidency of Andrew Jackson.
- 1860: Abraham Lincoln's victory triggered the secession of Southern states, leading to the Civil War and establishing the Republican Party as a major national force.
- - Election of 1860.
- - Presidency of Abraham Lincoln.
- 1896: William McKinley's win over William Jennings Bryan cemented a period of Republican dominance that lasted for three decades. The election was marked by shifting voter coalitions, particularly involving urban workers and populist movements.
- - Election of 1896.
- - Presidency of William McKinley.
- 1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt's election and the Great Depression solidified the New Deal Democratic coalition, which included urban ethnic groups, industrial workers, and African Americans.
- - Election of 1932.
- - Presidency of Franklin Roosevelt.
- 1968–1972: Political scientists often point to this period as a realignment that saw the erosion of the New Deal coalition. Richard Nixon's 1968 election and his subsequent "Southern Strategy," along with the election of 1972, marked a significant shift in Southern voting behavior from the Democratic to the Republican Party.
- - Election of 1968.
- - Richard Nixon 1968 presidential campaign.
- - Presidency of Richard Nixon.
What defines a critical election?
- The concept of a "critical election" was first advanced by political scientist V. O. Key, Jr.. Key noted that in these elections: Voters are unusually concerned about the outcome.
- Voter turnout is higher than normal.
- New, durable party coalitions are formed, and the existing political parties reconfigure.
- A new majority party typically emerges.
- Later scholarship challenged the idea that electoral realignments only happen in a single, sudden election.
- The concept of "secular realignment" suggests that some changes happen more gradually over time. The elections of 1968 and 1972, for example, are considered part of a broader realignment period that reshaped the party system.
