Saturday, September 14, 2024

What is a swing state?

A little help for the GOVT 2306 essay.

- From Wikipedia: 

In American politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as "red states" and "blue states" depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign.


What are the swing states in 2024? 

- From the NYT: Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump.

- - Pennsylvania
- - Georgia
- - North Carolina
- - Michigan
- - Arizona
- - Wisconsin
- - Nevada


How competitive will Texas be? 

- From Wikipedia: 2024 United States presidential election in Texas.

Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades. Texas is considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections.

For More: 

- From Axios: As Harris invigorates Dems, Texas appears out of play.

- From KXAN: 2024 election: Exploring claim Texas is ‘sleeper battleground state

- From KXAN: These are the reddest and bluest counties in Texas, based on recent election results.