the weaker party

If you don't know the rules, you don't know how to play the game.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Two Forecasts

Charlie Cook.

Nate Silver.
Posted by The Weaker Party at 7:22 AM
Labels: election 2010, forecasts, midterm elections, polls
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  • kjefferies@alvincollege.edu

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The 1000 Word Essay

  • Fall 2024: For GOVT 2305 - Are the Major Parties Realigning?
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  • Summer 2 2024: For GOVT 2306 2IN01: Describe a Conflict between the State of Texas and the United States
  • Summer 2 2024: For GOVT 2306 2IN02: What is the Death Star Bill? What might its impact be on local governments in Texas?
  • Summer 1 2024: Essay Topic
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Highlighted Posts

  • Ken Paxton's Impeachment
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  • What my students might want to be when they grown up
  • Who Represents Ricky the Railcat? Or, Who Represents Robert Turner High School?

Sections

  • Section One - What is Government?
  • Section Two - Constitutions
  • Section Three - Federalism
  • Section Four - Civil Liberties
  • Section Five - Political Institutions
  • Section Six - Elections and Campaigns
  • Section Seven - Parties and Interest Groups
  • Section Eight - The Media and Public Opinion
  • Section Nine - The Governing Institutions
  • Section Ten - The Legislature
  • Section Eleven - The Executive
  • Section Twelve - The Judiciary
  • Section Thirteen - Public Policy and Equal Treatment
  • Section Fourteen - Public Finance and Economic Policy
  • Section Fifteen - Domestic Policy
  • Section Sixteen - Foreign Policy

I'll use these if I have to

  • 1 Hour Of 6-Tone Car Alarm Siren HD
  • 10 Hours of The Screaming Sheep
  • Bad Saxophone Solo - Christian Song "Give Thanks"
  • Boomhauer talks for 1 hour
  • Kazoo Kid (10 HOURS)
  • Metal Machine Music, Pt. 2
  • Mission Impossible - Flute Fail
  • Nails On Chalkboard | Annoying Sounds with Peter Baeten
  • Orderrrrrrrrr! UK parliament speaker John Bercow's memorable moments
  • Scurvy ain't for the likes of me for 10 minutes
  • Shannon- Henry Gross
  • SIster Mary Elephant - Claaass - wake up
  • The Night Chicago Died (Paper Lace)

Section 1 - GOVT 2305 (Constitutions and Budgets)

  • The Deficiencies of the Articles of Confederation
  • Aristotle and His Classification of Government
  • Britain's Unwritten Constitution
  • British Colonization of the Americas - Merchant Adventurers
  • Checks and Balances
  • Civil Liberties
  • Constitutions, Charters, Statutory Code, etc . . .
  • Declaration of Independence - United States
  • Fiscal Federalism
  • Laws enacted by the First General Assembly of Virginia
  • Limits on Judges
  • Limits on Police
  • Limits on Prosecutors
  • Limits on Punishment
  • Max Weber: Power and Authority
  • Political Liberty: Speech, Press, Assembly, Petition
  • Public Finance: Government Expenditures
  • Public Finance: Government Revenue
  • Religious Liberty: Establishment and Free Exercise
  • Substantive Liberties
  • Territorial History of the USA: Every Month for 400 Years
  • The _______ Powers (fill in the blank)
  • The 10th Amendment - The Reserved Powers
  • The 14th Amendment
  • The 27 Amendments to the Unites States Constitution
  • The 9th Amendment: The Unenumerated Rights
  • The Enumerated Powers
  • The First Virginia Charter 1606
  • The Incorporation of the Bill of Rights to the States
  • The Original United States Constitution
  • The Procedural Liberties
  • The Separation of Powers
  • What is a Government?
  • What is Corruption?
  • What is Federalism?
  • What is Politics?
  • Why do you have to take this class? Part 1
  • Why do you have to take this class? Part 2

Section 2 - GOVT 2305 (The Political Institutions)

  • A History of Interests in the United States
  • A rage for paper money . . .
  • Campaign Finance
  • Campaigns
  • Collective Action, the Free Rider Problem and Selective Incentives
  • Elections - Basic Concepts
  • Elections in the United States Constitution
  • Elections, Appointments, and the Separated Powers
  • Federalist 10
  • Freedom of Assembly: Interest Groups and Political Parties
  • Freedom of Speech: Public Opinion
  • Freedom of the Press: The Media
  • Freedom to Petition: Lobbying
  • Information, Disinformation, and Misinformation
  • Interest Groups
  • Is a Campaign Finance Constitutionally Protected Free Speech? Buckley v Valeo
  • Is Voting a Right Guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution?
  • Issue Networks, Iron Triangles, and the Revolving Door
  • Parties as Organizations
  • Parties in the Electorate
  • Parties in the Government
  • Political Culture
  • Political Eras of the United States
  • Political Parties
  • Public Opinion and Ideology
  • Suffrage
  • The Battle Over Suffrage
  • The First Amendment and the Political Institutions
  • The Political Institutions
  • The Voting Rights Act and Shelby v Holder
  • U.S. Election Code
  • Voter Registration
  • What is a Mega Donor?
  • What is a Political Action Committee (PAC)?
  • What is a Super PAC?
  • What is Democracy?

Section 3 - GOVT 2305 (The Governing Institutions)

  • The Governing Institutions
  • The Separation of Powers
  • Representation, Efficiency, and Fairness
  • What is a representative? What is an administrator? What is a judge?
  • The Checks and Balances
  • The Legislative Power
  • The U.S. Constitution - Article One
  • Congress
  • United States Code
  • The Executive Power
  • The U.S. Constitution - Article Two
  • U.S. Administrative Law
  • The Presidency
  • The Bureaucracy
  • The Judicial Power
  • The U.S. Constitution - Article Three
  • U.S. Case Law
  • The U.S. Supreme Court
  • The Federal Courts

Section 4 - GOVT 2305

  • What Is Public Policy?
  • Market Failure
  • Public Goods - What are they? What types exist?
  • Federalism and Public Policy
  • Public Policy and the Enumerated Powers
  • Foreign Policy

Section 1 - GOVT 2306 (Constitutions and Budgets)

  • A collection of videos regarding counties in Texas
  • All About the 2024-2025 Texas Budget
  • Amendments to the 1876 Texas Constitution
  • Constitutions, Charters, Statutory Code, etc . . .
  • Declaration of Independence - Texas
  • Federalism
  • Fiscal Size-Up: Areas of Spending
  • From the Texas Education Agency: Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills for K - 12. Government
  • Local Government
  • Terminology for GOVT 2306 Module 1
  • Texas Constitution, Article 11: Municipal Corporations
  • Texas Constitution, Article 9: Counties
  • Texas Local Government Code
  • The Constitutions of Texas
  • The Current Texas Constitution
  • The First Virginia Charter 1606
  • The Harris County 2024 Budget
  • The original 1876 Texas Constitution
  • The States within the United States Constitutional System
  • Video: Annexation History - Planning and Development Department - City of Houston
  • Video: How the Texas Budget Works: An Overview
  • Video: Territorial History of the USA: Every Month for 400 Years
  • Video: What is a Constitution's Purpose?
  • Video: What is the Purpose of Article IV?
  • What are Single Purpose Governments?

Section 2 - GOVT 2306 (The Political Institutions)

  • Campaign Finance
  • Campaigns
  • Collective Action, the Free Rider Problem and Selective Incentives
  • Elections
  • Elections in the Unites States Constitution
  • For Comparison: The U.S. and Texas Bills of Rights
  • Interest Groups
  • Political Culture
  • Political Freedom
  • Political Parties
  • Public Opinion and Ideology
  • Suffrage
  • Terminology for GOVT 2306 Module 2
  • Texas Constitution - Article 6 - Suffrage
  • Texas Election Code
  • Texas Party Platforms
  • The First Amendment and the Political Institutions
  • The Political Institutions
  • What is a Megadonor?
  • What is a Political Action Committee?
  • What is a Super PAC?
  • What is Democracy?

Section 3 - GOVT 2306 (The Governing Institutions)

  • Terminology for GOVT 2306 Module 3
  • The Governing Institutions
  • The Separation of Powers
  • The Texas Legislature - Relevant Links
  • The Texas Executive: Elective Offices - Relevant Links
  • The Texas Executive: The Bureaucracy - Relevant Links
  • The Texas Judiciary - Relevant Links
  • The Legislative Power
  • The Executive Power
  • The Judicial Power

Section 4 - GOVT 2306 (Public Policy)

  • Terminology for GOVT 2306 Module 4
  • Market Failure
  • What Is Public Policy?
  • Categories of Public Policies
  • Federalism and Public Policy
  • Fiscal Size-Up - Areas of Public Policy in Texas
  • Education Policy in Texas
  • Health and Human Services Policy in Texas
  • Business and Economic Development Policy in Texas
  • Criminal Justice and Public Safety in Texas
  • Natural Resources Policy in Texas
  • Regulatory Policy in Texas
  • Laws related to Women, Children, Families, and Marriage
  • The Culture Wars

Terms and Lecture Notes

  • . . . A rage for paper money
  • 117th Congress - Major Laws
  • 1st United States Congress
  • An Overview of Public Policy
  • Appointments
  • Campaign Finance
  • Campaign Professionals
  • Campaigns
  • Candidates
  • Checks and Balances
  • City Ordinances
  • Civil Liberties and the Bill of Rights
  • Constitutions and Charters
  • Declaration of Independence - Texas
  • Declaration of Independence - United States
  • Disinformation
  • Economic Policy
  • Elections
  • Elections in the United States Constitution
  • Equal Protection / Civil Rights
  • Executive Departments and Agencies
  • Federalism
  • Federalism and Public Policy
  • Federalist 10
  • Federalist 51
  • For Comparison: The U.S. and Texas Bills of Rights
  • Foreign Policy
  • Forms of Government: Aristotle and His Classification of Government
  • Interest Groups
  • Lobbying
  • Local Government
  • Market Failure
  • No Really . . . why do you have to take this class? Part 1
  • No really . . . why do you have to take this class? Part 2
  • Political Culture
  • Political Parties
  • Political Polarization
  • Popular Sovereignty - Dual Sovereignty - Tribal Sovereignty
  • Public Goods - What are they? What types exist?
  • Public Opinion
  • Public Policy
  • Public Policy and the Enumerated Powers
  • Regulatory Policy
  • Social Policy
  • State Political Culture
  • Suffrage
  • Territorial History of the USA: Every Month for 400 Years
  • Texas Constitution - Amendments
  • Texas Constitution - current version
  • Texas Constitution - Development
  • Texas Constitution - original 1876 versiobn
  • Texas Election Code
  • Texas Legislature - 88th Regular Session
  • Texas Public Policy - Fiscal Size-Up: Areas of Spending / State Agencies
  • The Bureaucracy
  • The Culture Wars
  • The deficiencies of the confederated system
  • The Executive
  • The Federal System
  • The First Amendment and the Political Institutions
  • The First Virginia Charter 1606
  • The Fiscal Size-Up
  • The Governing Institutions
  • The Judiciary
  • The Legislature
  • The Political Institutions
  • The Powell Memo
  • The Press
  • The Separated Powers
  • The Separated Powers and The Checks and Balances
  • The States within the United States Constitutional System
  • U.S. Constitution: The Enumerated Powers - Article 1, Section 8
  • U.S. Executive Departments - The First Three
  • United States Executive Agencies created in the 19th Century
  • United States Executive Departments Created in the 20th Century
  • Voter Turnout and Political Behavior
  • Washington's Farewell Address 1796
  • What is Power
  • What Is Public Policy?

Daily Readings and General Info

  • Ballotpedia
  • Bills and Resolutions introduced in Congress
  • C-Span: Congressional Chronicle
  • Constitution Annotated
  • Gammel's Laws of Texas
  • Good Party: Glossary
  • Open States: Texas Legislature
  • Quorum Report - Daily Buzz
  • ScotusBlog Round-Up
  • Texas Legislature Online: General Reports
  • Texas State Law Library: Case Law
  • Texas State Law Library: Research Guides by Topic
  • Texas Tribune: Texas Legislature 2023
  • TLRL: Daily Clips
  • U.S. Congress - Bills to be considered by the House Floor
  • U.S. Congress - Bills to be considered by the Senate Floor

1000 Word Essay Topics

  • For Spring 2023: 1000 word topics for 2305 and 2306
  • For Fall 2022 - 2023 mini semester: Legislative Priorities for Interest Groups in Texas
  • For Fall 2022: Evaluate Legislative Activity
  • For Summer 2022: Major cases from the 2021-2022 Supreme Court session

Texas Legislative Priorities - 88th Session

  • Priorities for the 88th Session the Texas Legislature
  • 1 - Property Tax Relief
  • 2 - The Power Grid
  • 3 - Border Security
  • 4 - Law Enforcement
  • 5 - Education
  • 6 - Elections
  • 7 - Guns
  • 8 - LGBTQ Texan's Rights
  • 9 - Abortion
  • 10 - Health Care
  • All About the Texas Budget
  • An update on priority legislation in the Texas Legislature 3/19/23

GOVT 2305 - Chapter Terms

  • GOVT 2305 Chapter One: Introduction

GOVT 2306 - Chapter Terms

  • Chapter One: Lone Star Politics
  • Chapter Two: Lone Star Politics - Constitutions
  • Chapter Three: Lone Star Politics - Texas Legislature
  • Chapter Four: Lone Star Politics – Texas Governors
  • Chapter Five: Lone Star Politics - The Plural Executive and Bureaucracy in Texas
  • Chapter Six: Lone Star Politics - Texas Judicial System
  • Chapter Seven: Lone Star Politics - Texas Sized Justice
  • Chapter Eight: Lone Star Politics - Campaigns and Elections, Texas Style
  • Chapter Nine: Lone Star Politics - Political Parties
  • Chapter Ten: Lone Star Politics - Organized Interests
  • Chapter Eleven: Lone Star Politics - Local Government in Texas
  • Chapter Twelve: Lone Star Politics - Fiscal Policy
  • Chapter Thirteen: Lone Star Politics - Energy, Environment, Transportation, and Trade Policies: Transforming Texas
  • Chapter Fourteen: Lone Star Politics - Social Policy: Education, Health, and Immigration
  • GOVT 2305 Key Terms - Chapter One: Introduction
  • Key Terms - Week 2
  • Key Terms - Week 3
  • Key Terms - Week 4
  • Key Terms - Week 5
  • Key Terms - Week 6
  • Key Terms - Week 7
  • Key Terms - Week 8
  • Key Terms - Week 9
  • Key Terms - Week 10
  • Key Terms - Week 11
  • Key Terms - Week 12

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  • The Library of Economics and Liberty
  • The Online Library of Liberty
  • ThisNation.com
  • Thomas
  • Times Topics
  • Times Topics: People
  • U.S. Census Bureau
  • WEPIN - Index to Anti-Federalist Papers
  • Where the Money Goes
  • Wiki Summary
  • Wikimapia
  • Wikipedia
  • Word Spy

Constitutional Links

  • Avalon: Documentary Record
  • Constitution Daily
  • Constitution Finder
  • Constitutional Law Prof Blog
  • Justia US Constitution
  • LOC: Creating the Constitution
  • National Constitutional Center
  • Texas Constitution
  • The Constitution - Analysis and Interpretation
  • The Constitutional Accountability Center
  • The Founder's Constitution
  • U.S. Constitution - Findlaw
  • U.S. Constitution - U.S, Archives
  • U.S. Constitution - Wikipedia
  • U.S. Constitution Online
  • onecle.com: analysis and interpretation

Networks

  • Iron Triangles
  • LittleSis
  • Muckety
  • Program on Networked Governance
  • The Issue Crawler
  • Visual Complexity

Budgeting

  • Budget of the United States Government
  • CBO: Monthly Budget Review
  • Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
  • Economic History of the United States
  • Federal Tax Brackets
  • History of the U.S. Tax System
  • NYT: Obama's 2012 Budget
  • NYT: You Fix the Budget
  • State Budget Solutions
  • Taxation History of the United States
  • Texas Budget Source
  • Texas Legislative Budget Board
  • Texas State and Local Tax Law Blog
  • Texas Taxpayers and Research Association
  • United States Public Debt

Legislative Links

  • Alvin City Council
  • C-Span Congressional Glossary
  • Congress 101
  • Congress.org
  • Congressional Bills
  • Congressional Caucuses
  • Congressional Committee Material
  • Congressional Documents
  • Congressional Hearings
  • Congressional Institute
  • Congressional Record
  • Congressional Reports
  • Congressional Research Service
  • Congresspedia
  • Dennis Bonnen - Texas House District 25
  • GovTrack: Members of Congress and Their Districts
  • Jefferson's Manual
  • John Cornyn - U.S. Senate
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison - U.S. Senate
  • Legislative Glossary
  • Legislative Reference Library of Texas
  • Legistorm
  • Lieutenant Governors of Texas
  • Membership of the 111th Congress: A Profile
  • Membership of the 112th Congress: A Profile
  • Mike Jackson - Texas Senate District 11
  • NYT: Inside Congress
  • National Committee for an Effective Congress
  • Open CRS Network
  • OpenCongress
  • Public and Private Laws
  • Roles and Duties of a Member of Congress
  • Roll Call
  • Ron Paul - U.S. House Texas District 14
  • S. 1
  • Senate Glossary
  • Technorati: Congress
  • Telicon
  • Texas House Journals
  • Texas House Research Organization
  • Texas House of Representatives
  • Texas Legislative Council
  • Texas Legislative Information
  • Texas Legislature Online
  • Texas Senate
  • Texas Senate Journals
  • Texas Speakers
  • Texas Statutes
  • Texas Statutes
  • The Dirksen Congressional Center
  • The Hill
  • The Hill: Lawmaker Ratings
  • The Library of Congress
  • The Texas Legislative Process
  • Thomas - Legislative Information
  • U.S. Congressional Lawmaking and Debates
  • U.S. Government Accountability Office
  • U.S. House of Representatives
  • U.S. House: The House Explained
  • U.S. Senate
  • United States Congressional District Shapefiles
  • United States Congressional Serial Set
  • Washington Post: U.S. Congress Votes Database
  • voteview

Executive Links

  • A Visual History of the American Presidency
  • ABA Report on Signing Statements
  • Alvin, Texas City Manager
  • Alvin, Texas Mayor
  • American Presidents Blog
  • American Presidents Online Resources
  • American Presidents: C-Span
  • Code of Federal Regulations
  • Compilation of Presidential Documents
  • Executive Agencies: FindLaw
  • Federal Register
  • Governors of Texas
  • Index of Presidential Signing Statements
  • Pardon Power
  • Potus - Tracker
  • Presidential Rhetoric
  • Technorati: President
  • Texas Attorney General
  • Texas Comptroller
  • Texas Ethics Commission
  • Texas Governor
  • The American Presidency Project
  • The Center for the Study of the Presidency
  • The Texas Register
  • The White House
  • Times Topics: Barack Obama
  • Times Topics: George W. Bush
  • Times Topics: Presidents and the Presidency
  • USA.gov
  • vicepresidents.com

Judicial Links

  • Alvin Municipal Court
  • American Judicature Society
  • C-Span: U.S. Supreme Court
  • FindLaw
  • FindLaw: Supreme Court Center
  • Flashcards: Con Law- Concept Cards
  • Harris County Courts
  • Harvard Law Review
  • History of the Supreme Court
  • Houston Municipal Court
  • Judgepedia
  • Juror History
  • Landmark Supreme Court Cases
  • National Center for State Courts
  • On The Docket: Northwestern University Law School
  • OYEZ: Supreme Court Media
  • Point of Law
  • Sandra Day O'Connor Project on the State of the Judiciary
  • ScotusWiki
  • Supreme Court Practice, Ninth Edition
  • Supreme Court Statistics
  • Technorati: Supreme Court
  • Texas Courts Online
  • Texas Municipal Courts Association
  • Texas Municipal Courts Education Center
  • Texas Review of Law and Politics
  • The Supreme Court Historical Society
  • The Supreme Court of Texas
  • The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
  • The U.S. Supreme Court
  • Times Topics: U.S. Supreme Court
  • U.S. Courts
  • United States Courts: Education Resources
  • Washington Post: Supreme Court

Political Parties

  • Brazoria County Democratic Party
  • Brazoria County Republican Party
  • Encyclopedia of Political Parties and Elections
  • Fort Bend County Democrats
  • Fort Bend County Republican Party
  • Galveston County Democratic Party
  • Galveston County Republican Party
  • Harris County Democratic Party
  • Harris County Republican Party
  • Polarized America
  • Texas Democratic Party
  • Texas Democratic Party 2008 Platform
  • Texas Democratic Party--Handbook of Texas
  • Texas Republican Party
  • Texas Republican Party 2008 Platform
  • Texas Republican Party--Handbook of Texas
  • The Fall of Conservatism
  • The Rules of the Texas Demnocratic Party
  • U.S. Democratic Party
  • U.S. Republican Party

Elections

  • All About Redistricting
  • Ballot Access News
  • Ballotpedia
  • Brazoria County Ballot for May 10, 2008 Elections
  • Brazoria County Elected Officials
  • Brazoria County: Elections
  • Cook Political Report
  • CQ 2008 Election Guide
  • Election Law Blog
  • FactCheck
  • Federal Election Commission
  • fivethirtyeight
  • Frontloading
  • Gallup: Election 2008 Polls
  • Galveston County: Elections
  • Harris County: Elections
  • International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
  • League of Women Voters
  • NCSL: Voter ID Requirements
  • Non Profit Vote
  • November General Election Candidates
  • NYT: 2010 Exit Polls
  • NYT: Elections 2008 Page
  • Political Maps
  • Politifact
  • RedistrictingOnline.org
  • Texas Redistricting
  • Texas Secretary of State: Elections Division
  • The Campaign Trail
  • The Center for Voting and Democracy
  • The Electoral Knowledge Project
  • The Living Room Candidate
  • U.S. Election Assistance Commission
  • U.S. Election Atlas
  • U.S. General Election Exit Polls Series
  • United States Election Project
  • Voter History
  • Voting America

Campaigning and Public Relations

  • Blakemore and Associates
  • Campos Communications
  • Complete Campaigns
  • Empower Texans PAC
  • Fero Hewitt Global
  • Johnston Campaigns
  • Open Secrets: Super PACs
  • The Word Doctors

Money in Politics

  • Follow the Money
  • Open Secrets
  • Texans for Public Justice

Polls

  • American National Election Studies
  • American Research Group
  • Edison/Mitofsky Exit Polls
  • Houston Area Survey
  • Knowledge Networks
  • Media Curves
  • MSNBC exit polls
  • New York Times Polls
  • NYT: 2008 Exit Poll
  • Pew Hispanic Center
  • Pew Research Center
  • Pew Research Center: People and the Press
  • Pollster
  • President Bush's Approval Ratings
  • Presidential Approval Center
  • Rasmussen Reports
  • Real Clear Politics: Polls
  • Texas Lyceum Poll
  • The Gallup Poll
  • Zogby International

Interest Groups

  • AFL-CIO
  • American Civil Liberties Union
  • Christian Coalition
  • Free Market Foundation
  • National Association of Counties
  • National Conference of State Legislatures
  • National League of Cities
  • National Rifle Association
  • Texas Association of Business
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