The principle problem for Republicans is that the 182 establishment Republicans are not large enough to pass legislation on their own, and if the Tea Party wing does not support a bill - like the recent Plan B - there are not enough conservative Democrats - the Blue Dogs - to make up the difference. Since Liberal Democrats are unlikely to support anything substantive offered by Republicans, the Tea Party has enough leverage to control Congress' agenda.
Here's Silver's take:
Perhaps cooler heads will prevail in these negotiations. But a majority of the incoming House – 237 of 433 members – will be either Tea Party Republicans or liberal Democrats, leaving only 196 members who are either Establishment Republicans or Blue Dog Democrats and who might form a functional center-right coalition.
Moreover, the House is likely to engage in repeated battles over fiscal policy during the next two years: not just the over the fiscal cliff, but also over the debt ceiling, annual budgeting plans and whatever stabilization measures might be proposed in the event of another economic downturn.
If Mr. Boehner is having as much trouble whipping votes as he did on Thursday night, reducing the pool from which he might be able to draw together a compromise, this arithmetic problem could turn out to be intractable at some point.
The lesson: Don't expect much from the 113th Congress.
