Sunday, December 9, 2012

Republicans 2012 = Democrats 1984?

Are the Republicans today in the same situation Democrats were in 1984 after Reagan's landslide and the loss of their fourth election in five tries (which woudl be 5 out of 6 after 1988)?

A Daily Beast writer thinks they are, and argues that the national party needs to undergo the same type of fundamental transformation the Democrats went through in the mid 1980s. Democrats began to marginalize the strong liberals who had defined the party since the 1930s and started moderating their policies. Central to this effort was the establishment of the Democratic Leadership Council which set the stateg for the election of Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and set the stage for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

But marginalizing Democrats was difficult to do - as will be marginalizing conservatives now. The Tea Party has no intention of going anywhere and will continue to dominate which candidates win primaries in the Republican Party. The transformation may take time:

Back in 1984 and ’85, when the Democrats were similarly wandering in the wilderness, a good-sized chunk of Democrats said, “Enough. We’re tired of losing, and we need some updating.” I don’t by a long shot agree with every position the Democratic Leadership Council took, but I certainly know that it was on the whole a good and necessary thing; the Democratic Party obviously had to reexamine some of its positions. Change didn’t come easy, and it took one more wipeout of an election, but along came Bill Clinton, and the party drank its tonic and embraced (sort of; enough so that voters noticed the change) welfare reform and free trade.

Republicans aren’t anywhere near to exposing themselves to the kind of self-examination and intra-party debate the Democrats undertook after Reagan’s second win. Despite upholstering their speeches with ample liberal rhetoric, and in Rubio’s case those aforementioned quasi-proposals, Rubio and Ryan both stuck hard to current-day GOP gospel. Raising tax rates isn’t an option. Relying on government isn’t the answer, and all the rest. When I read the Ryan remarks I quoted above, as I first started reading those words, I thought to myself, “Ah, might I encounter here an actual nugget of self-criticism?” It came. But it was only about messaging. The substance of their positions, to them, is fine and dandy.