Random items on the - mostly Republican - delegate selection process

We will review some of these in class.

- Everything you need to know about delegate math in the presidential primary.
- 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation Rules by State.
- These 54 People Could Determine the Republican Nomination.
- Trump blasts 'rigged' rules on picking Republican delegates.
- A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary.

These focus mostly on the Republican battle in order to determine whether Trump can still win the nomination. I'll have more on the Democratic fight later.

From the NYT: How Votes For Trump Could Become Delegates for Someone Else

An inside look at how the Republican Party assigns its delegates, and a possible look at the storm that might well hit this summer when the convention is held.

- Click here for the article.

A related article walks through the latest hot commodity, the GOP delegate.

- Click here for As Floor Fight Looms, G.O.P. Convention Delegates Become a Hot Commodity.

The chairman of the Republican Party in American Samoa, Utu Abe Malae, began feeling the pressure almost immediately: phone calls, commitment forms, anything the presidential campaigns could do, say or send to nail down his support as a delegate.

Ken Callahan, a district chairman for the North DakotaRepublican Party, is perpetually fielding calls not just from the campaigns, but also from neighbors and friends who, excited by the process that is starting to unfold, are interested in becoming delegates themselves. “I receive, I would say, 10 to 15 calls a day,” he said, “and it doesn’t stop on weekends, either.”

And Holland Redfield, a Republican delegate and former lawmaker in the Virgin Islands, had a special call-in guest on his radio program the other day: Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, who promised more than just lip service to the islands if he became president. After years of being treated like second-class citizens by mainland politicians, Mr. Redfield said, “we are in the catbird seat. There’s going to be some hard bargaining.”

Suddenly, they matter: For the first time in 40 years, the delegates to the Republican National Convention could be more than just a rubber stamp on their party’s nomination process.

The out-and-out wooing has not yet begun. But it seems only a matter of time before campaigns start using all the trappings of prestige, power and who-knows-what-else they are able to muster.

From 538: Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?

Seems unlikely.

- Click here for the article.

All of the respondents agree that Trump is not likely to get close to 1,237 delegates before June 7, when California and four other states vote. The closest Trump came was 1,088 delegates. And even the most optimistic Trump projection has him hitting 1,244 after all the states have voted. That leaves Trump with very little room for error to reach a majority of delegates without at least some of the currently unpledged or uncommitted delegates coming to his aid.

Part of the reason we’ll have to wait so long is how the rest of the calendarbreaks down. The month of April, which includes a lot of primaries in the Northeast, should be good for Trump. May has far fewer contests, and Trump is expected to do poorly in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington.

Not surprisingly, our respondents’ estimates differed greatly in a number of states. If you’re looking for the states that could be make-or-break for Trump, then look to Wisconsin, New York, Indiana and California. In all four, Trump’s expected number of delegates won differed by at least 36 among the respondents.

From the NYT: Donald Trump Finds Ally in Delegate Selection System, Much to G.O.P.’s Chagrin

The process was set up to quickly find an establishment candidate. It found Mr. Trump instead.

- Click here for the article.

Memo to Republican leaders: Be careful what you wish for.

Hoping to avoid a repeat of the messy fight for the Republican nomination in2012, the party drew up a calendar and delegate-selection rules intended to allow a front-runner to wrap things up quickly.

Now, with Republicans voting in 11 states on Tuesday, the worst fears of the party’s establishment are coming true: Donald J. Trump could all but seal his path to the nomination in a case of unintended consequences for the party leadership, which vehemently opposes him.

“Trump has significant advantages, and that’s the way the system is designed,” said Joshua T. Putnam, a political science lecturer at the University of Georgia with an expertise in delegate selection. “It’s right in line with what the folks designing these rules wanted. It’s just not the candidate they preferred.”

As the calendar flips, March brings a whirlwind of states voting on the same days and in quick succession. By the middle of the month, 58 percent of the total delegates will have been awarded, and Mr. Trump could be unstoppable in getting the 1,237 needed to clinch the nomination.

Some Takes on the Vote on the Fiscal Commission Vote

From the Brookings Institution.

In class yesterday as we were reviewing the bicameral system and how it was intended to tie the House closely to the immediate preferences of the public and detach the Senate from the same I suggested that the Senate was more likely to support the plan since the longer terms of office shield them from the immediate anger (short-term) that could follow their support. This despite the fact that the proposals serve the long term needs of the country.

Well, I was right.

5 out of 6 Senators voted for it.
5 out of 6 Representatives voted against it.

Direct Democracy in the House

The House Republican leadership is allowing activists to vote on what spending items to cut. What would Madison say about this?