From 538: Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
All of the respondents agree that Trump is not likely to get close to 1,237 delegates before June 7, when California and four other states vote. The closest Trump came was 1,088 delegates. And even the most optimistic Trump projection has him hitting 1,244 after all the states have voted. That leaves Trump with very little room for error to reach a majority of delegates without at least some of the currently unpledged or uncommitted delegates coming to his aid.
Part of the reason we’ll have to wait so long is how the rest of the calendarbreaks down. The month of April, which includes a lot of primaries in the Northeast, should be good for Trump. May has far fewer contests, and Trump is expected to do poorly in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington.
Not surprisingly, our respondents’ estimates differed greatly in a number of states. If you’re looking for the states that could be make-or-break for Trump, then look to Wisconsin, New York, Indiana and California. In all four, Trump’s expected number of delegates won differed by at least 36 among the respondents.
