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An appeal to white identity tends to work better in areas where that identity is felt to be under threat. The South, where Mr. Trump has performed well, has long been known for racially polarized politics.
Race essentially predicts political affiliation there, with blacks lining up for Democrats and whites for Republicans. A state like Mississippi, whose population is around 37 percent black, is an obvious example. If even 25 percent of white Mississippians voted for Democrats, the state could tilt blue — and perhaps elect the state’s first black governor, or first black senator since Reconstruction.
Democratic strategists dream of a blue North Carolina and Florida, and further in the future, a blue Georgia or Arizona.
But few dream of a blue Mississippi. The numbers have long been locked in. For example, according to the 2012 Mississippi exit polls, 96 percent of blacks voted for President Obama, but 89 percent of whites voted for Mitt Romney, who won by 55 percent to 44 percent.
Political scientists have written about the importance of tipping points in ethnic strife or resentment around the globe. It occurs when one group grows big enough to potentially alter the power hierarchy.
The author links to a large number of studies. Here are a few:
- RAND Kicks Off 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey.
- Who Are Donald Trump's Supporters, Really?
- Measuring Donald Trump’s Supporters for Intolerance.
- How political science helps explain the rise of Trump: the role of white identity and grievances.
- Obama's Unwanted Legacy: The Renewed Influence of 'Old-Fashioned Racism'
- Racial Identity, and Its Hostilities, Are on the Rise in American Politics.
- Could America Become Mississippi?
- THE BROWNING OF AMERICA.
- The downside of diversity: A Harvard political scientist finds that diversity hurts civic life.
