From Vox: Few predicted Trump had a good shot of winning. But political science models did.

Not everyone got the election wrong. Forecasts based on fundamentals were more accurate than those based on polls - which were actually accurate, as we'll see in other posts. 

- Click here for the article.

Why did so few people see Donald Trump’s win coming?

The polls got it wrong. The major election forecasting models got it wrong (though FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver deserved credit for being significantly less certain about it). The political professionals got it wrong. The pundits got it oh, so very wrong indeed.

Oddly enough, though, there were signs pointing to the fact that Trump had a better chance than people were giving him, and they were lurking in plain sight.

They were in well-known political science research on “fundamental-based” factors that has long been used to explain presidential elections.

In fact, of the major political science models that try to explain presidential elections, three predicted Trump would win and three others predicted only a very narrow Clinton victory.

From Vox: Political scientists think "the party" will stop Trump. They shouldn't be so sure.

The author takes on the "party decides" theory of candidate selection.

- Click here for the article.

So far the normal rules do not apply - at least on the Republican side - but maybe among Democrats also.

Some cutting edge political science research: Representation in Municipal Government

Since we've discussed - mostly in GOVT 2305 - democracy and wondered whether the national government is becoming more oligarchic, meaning it is increasingly responsive mostly to the needs of the wealthy, this recently published study about representation at the municipal level is worth looking at.

This also makes the subject relevant to 2306, where we are about to look at local governments more in-depth.

- Click here for the study.

The study was able to gather and process data that confirmed that liberal cities tend to get liberal policies, and conservative cities conservative policies - which suggests democracy is alive and well and the municipal level in the United States - if not, seemingly, the national level.

Both the Economist and Vox have reported on the study and focused on a graph it contains showing which cities are conservative and which are liberal. It's worth pointing out that the large cities in the nation tend to be liberal, very few are conservative, even in Texas.

Here's the proof. If you want to see how the numbers were generated, open up the study.

Why Politicians Ignore Political Scientists

They take the drama out of politics really.