From TribTalk: How HERO was defeated

I'll add more to this topic.

The author - Rice's Robert Stein - is one of the better commentators on Houston politics. He points to high turnout, not just among Republicans, but African-Americans who were opposed to the measure. Local political often includes unusual alliances - here's the latest example.

- Click here for the story.

Party Coalitions - 2014

In 2305 we'll be covering party coalitions. Here are a few stories detailing what we know about how these coalitions for each of the main parties held up last week:

Midterm Elections 2014: Coalitions Persist, but Turnout Favors GOP.
- Women, racial minorities and the young still voted Democrat - but turnout over all declined compared to 2010. So Democrats were successful in reaching out to these groups, they just didn't get them to the polls.

The Tectonic Plates of 2014.
- The same point is repeated, but more emphatically. Democrats have increasingly become the party of racial minorities who are more likely to vote in presidential than midterm elections. This has driven older white voters to the Republican Party, including blue collar rural voters that had voted for Clinton. They are more likely to vote in all elections. This give Republicans a structural advantage over Democrats.

Two midterm elections have hollowed out the Democratic Party.
- The Democrats may have trouble reaching out to the young in the future. Victories at the state level might give Republicans a deeper bench.

Altogether these suggest that Democrats lost nationally due to low turnout, not because they lost significant parts of their party coalition.

Here's a look at divisions based on issues:

The Divide Between Republican And Democratic Voters On Major Issues.
- The only area of agreement is on increased military action against ISIS. There is only a 7 percentage point difference between partisans there. Everything else - from abortion to global warming to immigration reform - is far more contentious.

From Texas Redistricting: Texas’ civic engagement crisis in one chart

A supplement to the information contained in the previous post. The sees little to cheer for over this.

- Click here for the post.



Especially worrisome is the low number of people who vote in primary elections. They are the ones who determine who is on the ballot each November. The future of state politics is set by a very small group of people.

House G.O.P. Members Face Voter Anger Over Budget

Here's evidence that U.S. House Republicans are facing at least some of the anger that House Democrats faced in townhall meetings in the previous session. The concerns seniors had over the impact health care reform would have on Medicare have resurfaced again, but this tome over Paul Ryan's budget proposals.

There appears to a caveat however. Ryan's plans only impact Medicare for those under 55. The question will be whether the elderly will accept those changes as long as their coverage is steady. This seems to pit the old against the young, but it may work politically:

The proposed new approach to Medicare — a centerpiece of a budget that Republican leaders have hailed as a courageous effort to address the nation’s long-term fiscal problems — has been a constant topic at town-hall-style sessions and other public gatherings during a two-week Congressional recess that provided the first chance for lawmakers to gauge reaction to the plan.

An example of the response came Tuesday as Representative Daniel Webster, a freshman Republican from Florida, faced an unruly crowd at a packed town meeting in Orlando, where some attendees, apparently organized or encouraged by liberal groups, brandished signs like “Hands Off Medicare” and demanded that he instead “tax the rich.”

Mr. Webster, shown in video from station WFTV, sought to defuse the situation by telling constituents that any changes were years away and that current retirees would not see a difference. “Not one senior citizen is harmed by this budget,” he said, noting that his new granddaughter was “looking at a bankrupt country.”

68% Turnout Expected in Texas

Of registered voters anyway.

Will Harris County Turn Blue?

The Chron tells us that for the first time since 1994 -- when the Republican Party's Contract with America helped the party take over the U.S. House of Representatives and create coattails which lead the party to local dominance -- Harris County Democrats have an advantage over their rivals in county wide elections (County side races are those for administrative positions such as Tax Assessor, Sheriff, and District Attorney, as will as judicial positions):

Democrats have reclaimed the voting advantage they lost 14 years ago in elections for Harris County offices, according to a poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle. But Republican County Judge Ed Emmett appears to be swimming strongly against the tide.

Voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 percentage points in elections for county leadership jobs, except in the county judge's race, where Emmett has a 13-point lead over Democrat David Mincberg, according to the survey. Sixteen percent of the respondents were undecided or said they lean toward neither party's entry.

The number 7 also popped up specifically in the race for district attorney; Democrat C.O. Bradford ran 7 percentage points ahead of Republican Pat Lykos in the poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday as early voting began for the Nov. 4 election.

As the Chronicle reported Saturday, the poll by Zogby International shows Democrats ahead by the identical gap, 7 percentage points, in the presidential and U.S. Senate races among county voters.

Emmett is an exception due to the name identification he developed during Hurricane Ike. While other Republicans are hurt by the party label because that's all the public knows about then, Emmett has a separate identity.

The poll claims that 46% of county residents are Democrats, 38% are Republican, and the remaining 16% are independent. The poll assumes that 20% of the county's voters will be African American, 20% will be Latino, and the rest mostly Anglo. A higher turnout by minorities -- who are expected to vote Democrat -- will tip the scales further Democrat.

The Youth Vote

Will it really make a difference? Will young voters actually turn out in sufficient number (probably for Obama) and influence the election's outcome?

Slate thinks it might, and gives reasons why they may.