The Chron tells us that for the first time since 1994 -- when the Republican Party's Contract with America helped the party take over the U.S. House of Representatives and create coattails which lead the party to local dominance -- Harris County Democrats have an advantage over their rivals in county wide elections (County side races are those for administrative positions such as Tax Assessor, Sheriff, and District Attorney, as will as judicial positions):
Democrats have reclaimed the voting advantage they lost 14 years ago in elections for Harris County offices, according to a poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle. But Republican County Judge Ed Emmett appears to be swimming strongly against the tide.
Voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 percentage points in elections for county leadership jobs, except in the county judge's race, where Emmett has a 13-point lead over Democrat David Mincberg, according to the survey. Sixteen percent of the respondents were undecided or said they lean toward neither party's entry.
The number 7 also popped up specifically in the race for district attorney; Democrat C.O. Bradford ran 7 percentage points ahead of Republican Pat Lykos in the poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday as early voting began for the Nov. 4 election.
As the Chronicle reported Saturday, the poll by Zogby International shows Democrats ahead by the identical gap, 7 percentage points, in the presidential and U.S. Senate races among county voters.
Emmett is an exception due to the name identification he developed during Hurricane Ike. While other Republicans are hurt by the party label because that's all the public knows about then, Emmett has a separate identity.
The poll claims that 46% of county residents are Democrats, 38% are Republican, and the remaining 16% are independent. The poll assumes that 20% of the county's voters will be African American, 20% will be Latino, and the rest mostly Anglo. A higher turnout by minorities -- who are expected to vote Democrat -- will tip the scales further Democrat.
