Yesterday was the anniversary of a war the CIA predicted would not happen: The 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Yom Kippur War. The CIA argued up until the actual fighting that despite the forces that Egypt and Syria had amassed on their borders with Israeli, there was little for either country to gain by attacking so they issued a memo stating that there was little reason to expect an attack - or to prepare for one.
This turned out to be a mistake and lead to a rethinking on the part of the CIA in how it assesses risks. Some related stories:
- NPR: The CIA and The Hazards of Forecasting.
- CIA: CIA Symposium on the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.
