Friday, November 16, 2012

Gerrymandering Mattered

Total votes for US House races show that Democrats got more votes than Republicans, but Republicans hold more seats than Democrats. This suggests that gerrymandering following the 2010 election (the Tea Party wave where Republicans won a majority in the majority of state legislatures) worked, and may continue to work for the rest of the decade.

But there's an argument that Republicans have an advantage over Democrats regardless because Democrats are packed into fewer districts than Republicans. Democrats would have to win the House by over 52% of the total vote in order to break even with Republicans.

See How Significant was the Gerrymandering?

Here's an argument that the number of gerrymandered seats - those that lead to safe Republican and Democratic seats - will continue to make governing difficult. Only 89 out of 435 seats are competitive, defined as being where the candidates receive between 46% and 54% of the total vote.

Here's a map of the House districts with the gray districts being the competitive ones.