Normally the answer would be yes, but the following has doubts about whether this is the case - at least in the near term.
- Click here for the article.
In both 2305 and 2306 we discuss the electoral process and the impact that primary elections have on the nature of the candidates that end up on the general election ballot. Primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme, and they ensure that the candidates that face the general electorate tilt either to the left or right.
Sometimes a party's primary voters tilt so far to one side that they become unacceptable to the general electorate. The other party - with a presumably less extreme candidate - becomes more attractive to the moderate voters who dominate general elections. They vote for the candidate of the other party. This assumes that what drives the electorate in the primary is not the same as what drives the electorate in the general election. While Tea Party candidates have proven too extreme for the general election in some states - Delaware, Missouri, Nevada among them - this isn't necessarily the case in Texas. At least we will be finding out this November.
Political consultants don't the increasingly rightward tilt of the Republican Party will make the Democratic Party more attractive to moderates in the state now - but it might in the future:
- Click here for the article.
In both 2305 and 2306 we discuss the electoral process and the impact that primary elections have on the nature of the candidates that end up on the general election ballot. Primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme, and they ensure that the candidates that face the general electorate tilt either to the left or right.
Sometimes a party's primary voters tilt so far to one side that they become unacceptable to the general electorate. The other party - with a presumably less extreme candidate - becomes more attractive to the moderate voters who dominate general elections. They vote for the candidate of the other party. This assumes that what drives the electorate in the primary is not the same as what drives the electorate in the general election. While Tea Party candidates have proven too extreme for the general election in some states - Delaware, Missouri, Nevada among them - this isn't necessarily the case in Texas. At least we will be finding out this November.
Political consultants don't the increasingly rightward tilt of the Republican Party will make the Democratic Party more attractive to moderates in the state now - but it might in the future:
The rhetoric that appeals to the tea party movement — including “closing down” the border, barring abortion for rape victims, the open carrying of guns and impeaching President Barack Obama — is polarizing to many moderate and Hispanic voters.
But experts largely agree it’s still not enough to entice middle-ground voters to window-shop at the Democratic Party. At least not yet.
“The more Republicans wander further and further away from the concerns of most Texans — not talking about education or the places they live — the faster they will hasten the return of the Democrats,” said Harold Cook, a Democratic consultant.
Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said that’s not going to happen in 2014. He agreed that if “the party moves so far right that it creates problems and voters don’t like the direction, yes, in two or four or six years, that will be reflected in how people vote,” Mackowiak said. “But I don’t see a short-term problem.”
In a traditionally competitive campaign, candidates move toward the left or right flank for the primary but tack toward the middle to win the general election. But for nearly two decades, Texas Republicans have had to worry only about the first round.
“All a candidate had to do to be elected to statewide office is avoid being the Democratic nominee,” Cook said.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest in 20 years. But last week’s primary brought out a type of conservatism that has given some moderate Republicans pause and given all Democrats hope, he said.
“The more right-wing folks Texas ends up electing, the faster the day will come when people will regret those elections,” Cook said.
But for now, the Democratic base is small in the state, Hispanic Texans don’t yet vote in proportion to their booming population numbers, and the Democrats lack the money and star power to pull enough voters to their side.
