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All Democrats have to do to re-take the Senate is to win the three yellow toss-up states where they have a natural advantage, plus a couple of the current “lean Republican” states that have voted for Obama. And Democrats will need only one “lean R” state if the party wins the White House, guaranteeing that a Democratic vice president would break a 50-50 Senate tie.
This appears doable. The Democrats’ job in 2016 is not much different than the GOP’s task last November. Republicans had, first, to hold their 14 seats in ruby red states plus Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins was never in danger; and second, pick up at least six of the large pool of 21 Democratic-held seats. There were seven generally Republican states in the South and West (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia) that were ripe for the plucking. As it happened, the GOP swept these seven and added the swing states of Colorado and Iowa, for a net gain of nine.
Thus, another Senate flip in 2016, this time to the Democrats, isn’t difficult to imagine, but it’s far from a sure thing.
