Both from 538:
- The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe … Right?
It’s very possible Clinton could achieve that margin of victory. But even in an era of high straight-ticket voting, extending those coattails to House races will be difficult because Republicans’ down-ballot advantages still exceed Democrats’. Let’s take a quick tour:
Why Democrats will gain House seats in 2016:
- Rebound
- Court-ordered redistricting
- Open seats
Why Republicans will probably keep their majority:
- The great sort
- Timing
- Ticket-splitting
- Senate 2016: The Democrats Strike Back.
It may come as a shock given all the attention being paid to the presidential race this year, but the president isn’t all-powerful. In fact, the U.S. Congress is supposed to be a coequal branchof the federal government. From voting on important legislation to confirming Cabinet appointees and federal judges, the Senate matters.
Right now, Republicans hold 54 seats to the Democrats’ 46 (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats). The Democrats have a favorable map in 2016: Of the 34 seats up for grabs, 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats need to net four seats to win control of the Senate if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and five seats if Donald Trump wins. We’ll launch our official Senate projections later this year, but it’s not too early to take a more informal tour through the races. The combination of the polling, the political lean of the states being contested and the candidates running suggests a close race for control of the chamber.
The biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor is fairly simple: Senate election results are increasingly tied to the presidential vote in each state.
And of the eight seats most likely to change hands in 2016, six are held by Republicans in states that President Obama won twice, and one is held by a Democrat in a state that former President George W. Bush won twice. If Trump does better in the presidential race than expected, Democratic gains could be kept to a minimum, but the field is tilted in their favor.
