While its still premature to make predictions, the state of the economy, and the looming possibility of a second recession make Obama's re-election unlikely, that is unless the Republican Party nominates someone too extreme for the general electorate.
Albert Hunt sees this as a possibility. From the Atlantic Five:
"One of the few political pleasures for President Barack Obama's
re-election team these days is watching the Republican primary fight,"
writes Albert Hunt in Bloomberg View.
Republican presidential candidates must appeal to conservatives further
to the right on issues from Medicare to immigration, threatening to
alienate independent voters in a general election.
"President Richard
Nixon used to say that the key to U.S. politics was to appeal to the
base in the primaries and move to the center in the general elections.
That's difficult if the nomination contests swing too far," Hunt says.
In debates, Rick Perry, seen as the "leading conservative," has been
attacked for moderate positions on immigration, even while he leads
conservative attacks on social security. Romney's greatest liability is
"enacting a health-care plan when he was governor that most analysts say
has improved care in Massachusetts."
"Primary battles can be
beneficial. Obama's standing and skills as the Democratic nominee last
time were honed by his intense battle for the nomination against Hillary
Clinton. An exceptionally tough and protracted battle, it never became
ideologically toxic." Reagan was a better candidate in 1980 having
defeated his primary rivals. But primary fights have "caricatured" a
party beyond general electability as with Barry Goldwater or George
McGovern, Hunt says. If Chris Christie gets into the race, he can expect
to have his more moderate positions on guns and immigration attacked on
the right, increasing the likelihood of another Goldwater-esque
candidacy in the general election.
