People think, quite a bit according to the results of this online poll.
Large majorities of voters believe the president has considerable sway on a range of big issues such as inflation, interest rates, the federal deficit, taxes and more. Fully three-quarters believe the president has at least some influence over health care costs, for example. Sixty-nine percent can see the president making gasoline prices go up or down.
The problem is, it's just not true. Not only is government limited, the president heads only one of three branches which check and balance each other. Congress actually sets policy, and limits on government allow many decisions to be made by the free market.
It's not surprising that people have high expectations of what presidents can do given the amount of time we spend we spend focusing on him and the election to the office. But presidential power, with just a few areas of exception, is very limited. Perhaps the cynicism people feel about government has less to do with government's failures than with ignorance about its actual design and purpose.
That's why we have this class I suppose.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
SOTUS 2008
Before too much time elapses, here are links to comments on the President's Final State of the Union Speech.
Q & A's from the Washington Post.
The Concord Monitor was not Impressed.
Democrats Liked it, says the NYT.
A Post Mortem from The Atlantic.
Q & A's from the Washington Post.
The Concord Monitor was not Impressed.
Democrats Liked it, says the NYT.
A Post Mortem from The Atlantic.
Looking Back on the Nuclear Option
Not long ago, Republicans in the Senate were talking about doing away with the filibuster as a tactic to defeat judicial nominees. It was called the nuclear option--though Republicans preferred to call it the Constitutional Option.
A collection of 14 moderate Senators--7 from each party, including John McCain--prevented the option from being deployed. Some Republicans are using this as an argument against McCain but Richard Bauer argues that they are being short sighted.
A collection of 14 moderate Senators--7 from each party, including John McCain--prevented the option from being deployed. Some Republicans are using this as an argument against McCain but Richard Bauer argues that they are being short sighted.
TAx Rebate Proposal Passes House
The U.S. House of Representatives voted 385-35 to approve a tax rebate for over 110 million Americans. The Senate is considering its own plan which must be reconciled with the House plan before being sent to the president for a signature. The overwhelming vote suggests that the bill is not likely to be vetoed.
The official name of the bill is the Recovery Rebates and Economic Stimulus for the American People Act of 2008, and the number is H.R. 5140.
This link takes you to the roll call vote, notice that Ron Paul voted against it. You can read his justification here. You can get full information about the bill from the Thomas, at the Library of Congress.
I'll post more info about the bill as it continues its march through the legislative process.
The official name of the bill is the Recovery Rebates and Economic Stimulus for the American People Act of 2008, and the number is H.R. 5140.
This link takes you to the roll call vote, notice that Ron Paul voted against it. You can read his justification here. You can get full information about the bill from the Thomas, at the Library of Congress.
I'll post more info about the bill as it continues its march through the legislative process.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Sunday, January 27, 2008
The State of the Harris County GOP
This Houston Chronicle story featuring Harris County Judge Ed Emmett has him concerned that party's recent successful run might be at an end partly because they are getting lazy:
. . . Republicans in Harris County simply got too accustomed to winning.
. . . Republicans in Harris County simply got too accustomed to winning.
Emmett said that when he moved to West University Place in 2003 after 14 years in Washington, D.C., he saw Republicans winning elections but also noticed "that they have gotten lazy, and I don't mean the candidates, I mean mainly the (campaign) consultants."
"I saw campaign brochures that, basically, you just put clip-art on, you put an 'R' after your name and you expect you are going to win. Well, those days are gone," he added.
In addition Republicans have to deal with a larger number of Hispanic voters who are likely to vote for Democrats and recent ethical problems involving the Harris County District Attorney.
Goals and Objectives for Quiz 2 2301 and 2302
These are the items I expect you to know by the end of next week if you are in my 2301 or 2302 classes.
2301:
You will know
The conflicts which led to the Constitutional Convention
the problems the Constitution was intended to solve
the proposed designs for the Constitution
The document’s basic outline
the principles underlying the Constitution
the importance of the separation of powers
the nature of the powers given to the national government, those reserved to the states, and the areas of ambiguity and dispute
the way that the Constitution is argued to check the violence of factions
the way that the Constitution makes ambition counteract ambition
2302:
You will know:
the role the legislature plays in the governing process
the struggle over the design in the convention
why congress is bicameral
the consequences of the bicameral congress
the problems associated with apportionment
the powers delegated to Congress
the constitutional and extra-constitutional checks Congress has on other institutions
the evolution of parties and committees
the relationship between members of Congress and their constituents
the unique nature of the Texas Legislature
2301:
You will know
The conflicts which led to the Constitutional Convention
the problems the Constitution was intended to solve
the proposed designs for the Constitution
The document’s basic outline
the principles underlying the Constitution
the importance of the separation of powers
the nature of the powers given to the national government, those reserved to the states, and the areas of ambiguity and dispute
the way that the Constitution is argued to check the violence of factions
the way that the Constitution makes ambition counteract ambition
2302:
You will know:
the role the legislature plays in the governing process
the struggle over the design in the convention
why congress is bicameral
the consequences of the bicameral congress
the problems associated with apportionment
the powers delegated to Congress
the constitutional and extra-constitutional checks Congress has on other institutions
the evolution of parties and committees
the relationship between members of Congress and their constituents
the unique nature of the Texas Legislature
Allow Me to Brag
In this clip from a Good Morning America interview with Matilda Cuomo--wife of Mario--about mentoring you'll hear her mention my wife (Shannon Bishop) and CASE, the after school program she developed around the 4:30 mark.
Friday, January 25, 2008
New Link: The Living Room Candidate
I added a new link in the "Elections" section. The Living Room Candidate has comprehensive collection of all of the campaign commercials run by the major party nominees for the general election. It also includes ads run for the candidates by outsider groups--like the Swift Boat Veterans ad that was not officially affiliated with the Bush campaign.
We'll run through these in 2301 when we cover campaigns, but we'll sneak a peak here and there.
We'll run through these in 2301 when we cover campaigns, but we'll sneak a peak here and there.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
. . . a more inclusive conservatism
Another good column from David Brooks today. Moderately conservative Republicans are supporting John McCain despite the fact that (more ideologically pure) conservative leaders are horrified about his possible nomination. Limbaugh thinks he will destroy the party. This author thinks he will capitulate to Democrats on every issue other than the war.
The irony of it all, says Brooks, is two fold. First, the sainted Ronald Reagan included both ideological conservatives and moderates in his administration, and second, McCain could actually win.
I see a parallel between current conservatism and liberalism in the sixties when after years of success, the movement began to splinter and warring factions competed over which was more ideologically pure. The battles weakened the movement and gave an opportunity for an emerging conservative movement to prosper. Conservative leaders might want to take heed, but they wont.
The irony of it all, says Brooks, is two fold. First, the sainted Ronald Reagan included both ideological conservatives and moderates in his administration, and second, McCain could actually win.
I see a parallel between current conservatism and liberalism in the sixties when after years of success, the movement began to splinter and warring factions competed over which was more ideologically pure. The battles weakened the movement and gave an opportunity for an emerging conservative movement to prosper. Conservative leaders might want to take heed, but they wont.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Executive Action on the Economy
After watching stocks tank around the world yesterday, while the markets took a day off due to MLK Day, the Federal Reserve attempted to to avert a similar downturn by drastically cutting interest rates 3/4 of a point.
This is what a singular exectuive is designed to do, respond quickly to crises. Recall that the president has also stated that he wants to create tax incentives, but this requires congressional approval which takes time. The question now is whether the rate cut will make a difference.
This is what a singular exectuive is designed to do, respond quickly to crises. Recall that the president has also stated that he wants to create tax incentives, but this requires congressional approval which takes time. The question now is whether the rate cut will make a difference.
Monday, January 21, 2008
2302 TBA Quiz One Questions
These are the written questions for my 2302 TBA students. I expect at least two full paragraphs for each question. You will note that some will require some research. Simple Google searches will give you the information you need to answer the questions. The questions all concern the United States Constitution which can be found in the appendix of your American Government textbook.
1-In Federalist #51 James Madison states that each institution created in the Constitution has a will of its own. What does this mean and how does the constitutional design make them each independent of the other two?
2-Using current events, provide examples of how each institution is independent.
3-The system of check and balances works by providing to each institution “the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist the encroachments of the others.” That’s how Madison puts it. How does this work?
4-Again using current events, give recent examples of each institution checking the others.
5-Section Eight of Article One lists the delegated powers of the national government while the 10th Amendment states that the rest of the powers are reserved to the states. Give current examples of controversies over laws on the national level and those on the state level.
6-What is the writ of the privilege of Habeas Corpus? Look for it in Section Nine of Article One. There have been controversies over it recently having to do with the treatment of detainees in Guantanamo. Outline the controversy.
7-Article Two lists the powers of the president. The fact that the executive powers are vested in one person has caused some to argue that the powers of the president can be expanded, perhaps indefinitely. This is called the unitary executive. Outline the controversies associated with this theory of executive power
8-Another recent controversy concerning executive power regards presidential signing statements. When a president signs a law, he generally issues a statement stating what he takes the law to mean. Some have argued that this power has been abused and that signing statements have been used as a way to ensure that the president does not have to follow laws he doesn’t want to. Outline the controversy.
9-Article Three states that the courts deals with what are called “cases and controversies.” What does this mean?
10-Article Three also states that judges and justices “shall hold their office during Good behavior.” Again what does this mean? How can we tell is a justice is behaving well?
1-In Federalist #51 James Madison states that each institution created in the Constitution has a will of its own. What does this mean and how does the constitutional design make them each independent of the other two?
2-Using current events, provide examples of how each institution is independent.
3-The system of check and balances works by providing to each institution “the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist the encroachments of the others.” That’s how Madison puts it. How does this work?
4-Again using current events, give recent examples of each institution checking the others.
5-Section Eight of Article One lists the delegated powers of the national government while the 10th Amendment states that the rest of the powers are reserved to the states. Give current examples of controversies over laws on the national level and those on the state level.
6-What is the writ of the privilege of Habeas Corpus? Look for it in Section Nine of Article One. There have been controversies over it recently having to do with the treatment of detainees in Guantanamo. Outline the controversy.
7-Article Two lists the powers of the president. The fact that the executive powers are vested in one person has caused some to argue that the powers of the president can be expanded, perhaps indefinitely. This is called the unitary executive. Outline the controversies associated with this theory of executive power
8-Another recent controversy concerning executive power regards presidential signing statements. When a president signs a law, he generally issues a statement stating what he takes the law to mean. Some have argued that this power has been abused and that signing statements have been used as a way to ensure that the president does not have to follow laws he doesn’t want to. Outline the controversy.
9-Article Three states that the courts deals with what are called “cases and controversies.” What does this mean?
10-Article Three also states that judges and justices “shall hold their office during Good behavior.” Again what does this mean? How can we tell is a justice is behaving well?
Are Federal Taxes Constitutional?
Wesley Snipes' lawyers are arguing that they are not and that criminal tax evasion charges are groundless. One argument that has been made, unsuccessfully, is that the income tax (established in the 16th Amendment) is unconstitutional. The responses to this story in the Baltimore Sun give you a taste for these positions.
The more nuanced position apparently concerns interpretations of Section 861 of the Federal Tax Code which states what income is taxable--basically any income in case you were wondering. But advocates argue that it can be interpreted to tax "only income from specific types of commerce, all of which have some kind of connection to international commerce or federal possessions."
Not everyone agrees, which might suggest that we won be seeing any movies from Mr. Snipes for a while. Well maybe a prison movie.
The more nuanced position apparently concerns interpretations of Section 861 of the Federal Tax Code which states what income is taxable--basically any income in case you were wondering. But advocates argue that it can be interpreted to tax "only income from specific types of commerce, all of which have some kind of connection to international commerce or federal possessions."
Not everyone agrees, which might suggest that we won be seeing any movies from Mr. Snipes for a while. Well maybe a prison movie.
2302 Quiz 1 Spring 2008
The first 2302 quiz will focus primarily on material we cover in class and the text of the Constitution in your American Government book's appendix.
Last week we covered some basic terminology, notably terms that we use to distinguish different governmental systems (autocracy, oligarchy, and democracy among others). The most important items concern basic principles within the Constitution, especially the separation of powers. As we read through the document Wednesday we will cover basic features of each separate institution it creates, in addition to the mechanism that each uses to keep each other in their place. We touched on this last week when we discussed the constitutional and extra constitutional checks each has on the other. All this is fair game for the quiz so be ready for them.
Be able to also answer questions about the powers of the national government (pay special attention to Article One Section Eight). We will also discuss state powers and the design features which make the Texas Constitution distinct from the U.S Constitution.
I anticipate spending 30-45 minutes covering this material on class before taking the quiz. The quiz will have 20 or 25 questions.
Last week we covered some basic terminology, notably terms that we use to distinguish different governmental systems (autocracy, oligarchy, and democracy among others). The most important items concern basic principles within the Constitution, especially the separation of powers. As we read through the document Wednesday we will cover basic features of each separate institution it creates, in addition to the mechanism that each uses to keep each other in their place. We touched on this last week when we discussed the constitutional and extra constitutional checks each has on the other. All this is fair game for the quiz so be ready for them.
Be able to also answer questions about the powers of the national government (pay special attention to Article One Section Eight). We will also discuss state powers and the design features which make the Texas Constitution distinct from the U.S Constitution.
I anticipate spending 30-45 minutes covering this material on class before taking the quiz. The quiz will have 20 or 25 questions.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Priming the Pump
After trying to cheerlead the economy back to health, the president seems to have conceded that the economy is unhealthy and needs assistance. The question is what to do, as well as whether there is anything substantive that a president can do to fix an ailing economy.
In a rare show of bipartisanship, a quick $145 billion tax relief package will be passed with the hope that it will spur spending, which keeps businesses healthy and jobs intact. The question now is whether it will work.
In a rare show of bipartisanship, a quick $145 billion tax relief package will be passed with the hope that it will spur spending, which keeps businesses healthy and jobs intact. The question now is whether it will work.
How Voters Think
That's the title of a great column today by David Brooks.
It brings to the discussion of the current crazy primary season recent theories about decision making which suggest that though emotion plays a role in the decisions people make about candidates, emotional decisions are based on rational assessments of character. Each of the current candidates tap into something people react to within the two parties:
It is no accident that the major candidates in the Republican field are a pastor, a businessman and a war hero. These are the three most evocative Republican leadership models. Nor is it an accident that the Democratic race is a clash between a daughter of the feminist movement, a beneficiary of the civil rights movement and a self-styled proletarian. These are powerful Democratic categories.
Writers seem to increasingly see value in snap shot decisions, or at least not consider them completely irrational and the result of ignorance (think of the recent success of the book Blink). We may want to think this through when we consider Federalist objections to democracy.
It brings to the discussion of the current crazy primary season recent theories about decision making which suggest that though emotion plays a role in the decisions people make about candidates, emotional decisions are based on rational assessments of character. Each of the current candidates tap into something people react to within the two parties:
It is no accident that the major candidates in the Republican field are a pastor, a businessman and a war hero. These are the three most evocative Republican leadership models. Nor is it an accident that the Democratic race is a clash between a daughter of the feminist movement, a beneficiary of the civil rights movement and a self-styled proletarian. These are powerful Democratic categories.
Writers seem to increasingly see value in snap shot decisions, or at least not consider them completely irrational and the result of ignorance (think of the recent success of the book Blink). We may want to think this through when we consider Federalist objections to democracy.
Friday, January 18, 2008
It's Good to be on the Texas Supreme Court
It keeps you from being indicted for arson and obstruction of justice.
Now it seems that the foreman of the grand jury that stated that the Chuck Rosenthal, the Harris County District Attorney, did not want an indictment issued. They are pushing for another indictment.
Rosenthal is in hot water, as you may know, for other matters. Might this compound things for him? Is there collusion of some sort going on? This is Texas afterwll.
Now it seems that the foreman of the grand jury that stated that the Chuck Rosenthal, the Harris County District Attorney, did not want an indictment issued. They are pushing for another indictment.
Rosenthal is in hot water, as you may know, for other matters. Might this compound things for him? Is there collusion of some sort going on? This is Texas afterwll.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
2301 Quiz 1 Spring 2008
The first 2301 quiz covers the first chapters of each of your textbooks, plus the Declaration of Independence which is at the back of your American Government textbook.
The purpose of the introductory lectures is to cover basic terminology so the first test will focus primarily on definitions. The point is to make sure that we can efficiently talk about government and politics. Pay close attention to the highlighted terms. Be clear about what "government," "politics," and "public policy" refer to plus related terms like "democracy."
The Texas textbook covers politics better than the American government does. Be especially prepared for questions about political culture. I wont ask many questions about the five principles of politics or the environment of Texas politics. Both are worth reading, but are less important than terminology at this point.
Be prepared for at least five questions about the Declaration of Independence. Understand the argument it makes, and how it makes it. Know the grievances. It wouldn't hurt to memorize as much as you can. Some questions will be fill in the blank.
The purpose of the introductory lectures is to cover basic terminology so the first test will focus primarily on definitions. The point is to make sure that we can efficiently talk about government and politics. Pay close attention to the highlighted terms. Be clear about what "government," "politics," and "public policy" refer to plus related terms like "democracy."
The Texas textbook covers politics better than the American government does. Be especially prepared for questions about political culture. I wont ask many questions about the five principles of politics or the environment of Texas politics. Both are worth reading, but are less important than terminology at this point.
Be prepared for at least five questions about the Declaration of Independence. Understand the argument it makes, and how it makes it. Know the grievances. It wouldn't hurt to memorize as much as you can. Some questions will be fill in the blank.
Push Poll Watch
The Huckabee camp is apparently using push polls against McCain.
McCain supporters in South Carolina are asked if they know that McCain--who supports stem cell research "voted to allow scientific experiments to be done on unborn children."
This is an old tactic that worked before.
McCain supporters in South Carolina are asked if they know that McCain--who supports stem cell research "voted to allow scientific experiments to be done on unborn children."
This is an old tactic that worked before.
Stupid, but Constitutional
That seems to be the consensus on the Supreme Court as it rules today that New York state's method of selecting trial court judges gives strength to party bosses at the expense of fairness does not violate the constitution.
From the majority decision (as quoted in the Washington Post): "Party conventions, with their attendant 'smoke-filled rooms' and domination by party leaders, have long been an accepted manner of selecting party candidates," Scalia wrote.
Here is the transcript of the oral argument.
Read the opinion here.
The Docket, from Northwestern Law School.
From the majority decision (as quoted in the Washington Post): "Party conventions, with their attendant 'smoke-filled rooms' and domination by party leaders, have long been an accepted manner of selecting party candidates," Scalia wrote.
More broadly, the opinion said, "A political party has a First Amendment right to limit its membership as it wishes and to choose a candidate-selection process that will in its view produce the nominee who best represents its political platform."
The case is New York State Board of Education v. Lopez.Here is the transcript of the oral argument.
Read the opinion here.
The Docket, from Northwestern Law School.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Virginia v. Moore
The Supreme Court heard arguments yesterday on Virginia v. Moore yesterday. The case involves the application of the exclusionary rule which makes evidence seized in violation of the 4th Amendment inadmissible in court. But what in fact makes evidence inadmissible?
Moore was given a ticket for driving with a suspended license, but was also arrested and his hotel room was searched. The search produced 16 grams of crack cocaine, but the question is whether the nature of the search was legal according to the Constitution, or at least how the document is interpreted by the justices.
This is the question presented to the court: Does the Fourth Amendment require the suppression of evidence obtained incident to an arrest that is based upon probable cause, where the arrest violates a provision of state law?
Here's the docket. Here's commentary from Volokh Conspiracy and Crime and Consequences.
In class we may wish to discuss which is worse. Throwing out evidence when it is clear that someone has violated a statutory law or allowing the police to operate outside the bounds on constitutional law?
Moore was given a ticket for driving with a suspended license, but was also arrested and his hotel room was searched. The search produced 16 grams of crack cocaine, but the question is whether the nature of the search was legal according to the Constitution, or at least how the document is interpreted by the justices.
This is the question presented to the court: Does the Fourth Amendment require the suppression of evidence obtained incident to an arrest that is based upon probable cause, where the arrest violates a provision of state law?
Here's the docket. Here's commentary from Volokh Conspiracy and Crime and Consequences.
In class we may wish to discuss which is worse. Throwing out evidence when it is clear that someone has violated a statutory law or allowing the police to operate outside the bounds on constitutional law?
Sunday, January 13, 2008
How Can You Confront a Dead Witness?
The Constitution, given its simplicity, creates dilemmas. The freedoms it establishes for the public can also make it more difficult for government to ensure justice. A constitutional government is designed to do both. Supreme Court cases often involve determining how this can be done in a particular case.
In the case of Giles v. California, the Supreme Court will have to determine whether the 6th Amendment right of for defendants to confront witnesses is waived if the defendant killed the witness who may have left some information that accuses the defendant of a crime. This is called forfeiture by wrongdoing.
In the case of Giles v. California, the Supreme Court will have to determine whether the 6th Amendment right of for defendants to confront witnesses is waived if the defendant killed the witness who may have left some information that accuses the defendant of a crime. This is called forfeiture by wrongdoing.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Voter ID Laws
The Supreme Court heard arguments in two related cases: Crawford v. Marion County Election Board and Indiana Democratic Party v. Secretary Rokita on the constitutionality of Indiana's law requiring voter to show photo ID prior to voting.
Support or opposition breaks down along party lines. Democratic voters--who may be old or poor or homeless and may not have photo id's--may be unable to vote, Republicans don't have a problem with that of course. The constitutional question is whether a fundamental right is being unduly burdened (is it that difficult to get a picture ID?) or whether fairness of the electoral system is so tainted by these voters that picture ID's are necessary in order for elections to pass muster.
The Washington Post adds:
The problem with both sides of this debate is the absence of evidence. The Indiana Democratic Party and other critics of the ID requirement lodged their lawsuit before the law took effect; their "facial challenge" is based almost entirely on speculation and hypotheticals. Those in favor of the ID requirement also are on shaky footing. While preventing voter fraud is a legitimate governmental goal, the state failed to present any evidence that in-person voter fraud is or has been a significant problem. They say that proving voter fraud is exceedingly difficult and that this fact helps to account for the scant evidence.
Click for the oral transcript here.
Scroll down this link to get to the docket.
Support or opposition breaks down along party lines. Democratic voters--who may be old or poor or homeless and may not have photo id's--may be unable to vote, Republicans don't have a problem with that of course. The constitutional question is whether a fundamental right is being unduly burdened (is it that difficult to get a picture ID?) or whether fairness of the electoral system is so tainted by these voters that picture ID's are necessary in order for elections to pass muster.
The Washington Post adds:
The problem with both sides of this debate is the absence of evidence. The Indiana Democratic Party and other critics of the ID requirement lodged their lawsuit before the law took effect; their "facial challenge" is based almost entirely on speculation and hypotheticals. Those in favor of the ID requirement also are on shaky footing. While preventing voter fraud is a legitimate governmental goal, the state failed to present any evidence that in-person voter fraud is or has been a significant problem. They say that proving voter fraud is exceedingly difficult and that this fact helps to account for the scant evidence.
Click for the oral transcript here.
Scroll down this link to get to the docket.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The New Deal Coalition?
Real Clear Politics argues that Hillary won NH because she has been able to revive the New Deal Coalition.
Why the Polls got it Wrong
Pollsters make a good living making correct predictions so they are justifiably concerned when they get an election wrong. Double digit projections of a Barack Obama candidacy did not pan out. Here are guesses about what happened.
New Hampshire no longer rotates the order at which names appear on the ballot, which meant that Clinton came before Obama and undecided voters have been found to be more likely to vote for names that come first.
People with racist beliefs are able to make racial decisions more safely in a secret ballot (New Hampshire) than in a public (Iowa). These people would also be less liekly to tell a pollster that they will not support a black candidate. This suppressed the Obama vote, and presumably would do so elsewhere.
The pollsters were right, but politics is so fast now (due to the internet's 24/7 news cycle) that opinions change rapidly. Factors like Clinton's crying enter into this. They also back and forth so it could well be that New Hampshire has swung back to Obama, or even Edwards.
Independents who would have voted for Obama did not feel the need to vote for him because of his win in Iowa, so instead voted in the Republican Primary for McCain, thus affecting two candidates. If New Hampshire had a closed primary, this would not have occurred.
Slate wonders if polling ought to be banned in these elections. Assuming you can.
New Hampshire no longer rotates the order at which names appear on the ballot, which meant that Clinton came before Obama and undecided voters have been found to be more likely to vote for names that come first.
People with racist beliefs are able to make racial decisions more safely in a secret ballot (New Hampshire) than in a public (Iowa). These people would also be less liekly to tell a pollster that they will not support a black candidate. This suppressed the Obama vote, and presumably would do so elsewhere.
The pollsters were right, but politics is so fast now (due to the internet's 24/7 news cycle) that opinions change rapidly. Factors like Clinton's crying enter into this. They also back and forth so it could well be that New Hampshire has swung back to Obama, or even Edwards.
Independents who would have voted for Obama did not feel the need to vote for him because of his win in Iowa, so instead voted in the Republican Primary for McCain, thus affecting two candidates. If New Hampshire had a closed primary, this would not have occurred.
Slate wonders if polling ought to be banned in these elections. Assuming you can.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
On Huckabee and Economic Populism
If Rod Dreher is right, Huckabee's success so far among Republicans (as well as Ron Paul's I'd add) does not bode well for Wall Street. Each spouts a brand of economic populism not favored by the country club set.
For many years commentators have wondered why some lower class and middle class people voted Republican despite the fact that their economic platform (low taxes, low services, cuts in social programs, anti labor union, anti minimum wage) worked against their interests. The answer was that their commitment to the Republican social agenda outweighed these material concerns.
Turns out that economic interests were not being forgotten, just placed on the back burner.
Dreher points to this Pew Research Center poll from a few years back which spotted this rise in populism. The question now is how Wall Street will respond (a Michael Bloomberg candidacy most likely) and if this faction within the party might bolt to the Democrats if the Republicans do not respond to their needs.
For many years commentators have wondered why some lower class and middle class people voted Republican despite the fact that their economic platform (low taxes, low services, cuts in social programs, anti labor union, anti minimum wage) worked against their interests. The answer was that their commitment to the Republican social agenda outweighed these material concerns.
Turns out that economic interests were not being forgotten, just placed on the back burner.
Dreher points to this Pew Research Center poll from a few years back which spotted this rise in populism. The question now is how Wall Street will respond (a Michael Bloomberg candidacy most likely) and if this faction within the party might bolt to the Democrats if the Republicans do not respond to their needs.
Clinton, McCain
A link to the News Hampshire Primary results: Politico.com
The Wikipedia entry outlines its historical importance. So does the state's major newspaper.
Like Iowa it guards its first in the nation status, it may be its biggest tourist draw.
The Wikipedia entry outlines its historical importance. So does the state's major newspaper.
Like Iowa it guards its first in the nation status, it may be its biggest tourist draw.
Electronic Voting Machines
The New York Times reports on problems with the machines. They turn out to be far more unpredictable than first anticipated.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Iowa Caucus Links
Before more time slips, here are links to sites with info about the Iowa Caucus in general and the results of last week's caucus in particular.
Iowa Caucus 2008
IowaCaucus.com
Iowa Caucus - Wikipedia
Iowa Caucus 2008
IowaCaucus.com
Iowa Caucus - Wikipedia
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)