Saturday, September 18, 2010

Conventional Wisdom - The Week of 9/18/10

The general consensus this week among commentators is that Christine O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Republican primary contest for the U.S. Senate completes the Tea Party's takeover of the Republican Party for this electoral cycle, and perhaps for 2012. By winning a decent handful of primary contests, they have defined the positions the party will take to the voters in the general election in less than two months. This aplies to a number of items we will cover in 2301, especially our discussion of the decentralized nature of political parties and the interplay among the various factors that influence what positions they take on issue in a given election.

Some random related readings:

Here, Mike Castle articulates his policy positions, the positions refuted by Delaware Republican Primary voters. They include support for cap-and-trade and stem cell research, he is also pro-choice on abortion. His loss helps explain how the two parties arrive at the positions they take on legislation. It's more bottom-up than top-down. 

Nate Silver argues that O'Donnell's ideological positions make her less likely to win the general election in Delaware than would her more moderate opponent. He downgrades the chance that a Republican will win the Delaware Senate seat, as well as the chance that the Republican Party will take over the Senate.

TNR wonders whether a more conservative House will elect existing minority leader John Boehner Speaker.

Andrew Sullivan surveys the field opining about whether this makes Sarah Palin the front runner for the Republican 2012 nomination.