The NYT wonders if the good jobs are gone, and whether governmental policies can address this issue. Can the market - on its own - create the next wave of middle skill jobs that will limit increased inequality?
Richard Posner points out the various ways that technological advances displaces - but does not eliminate - labor. While he mentions jobs that do not require high IQ's he points out that many jobs that are specialized - including the practice of law - are vulnerable.
He has this scary point to make about driverless cars:
Take the case of the driverless car. This technology is advancing very rapidly and has great promise for reducing labor costs (drivers), traffic accidents (for example by eliminating drunk driving), traffic violations, and traffic jams (by optimizing speed, lane usage, and choice of routes and times). There are approximately 4 million truck, taxi, limousine, and bus drivers in the United States, not to mention gas station attendants and traffic policemen. Not all these jobs will be eliminated overnight, but they could go quite fast.
He also points out that these trends - coupled with increased life expectancy - wil lincrease the dependent population:
These trends bear on the current debates over the size of government. Technological advances are increasing longevity, and with it an increase in the dependent population. By reducing demand for workers, and therefore employment and wages, in many labor markets, the same technological advances may be creating a second dependent population, consisting of people of working age and their children who cannot support themselves without public assistance that will either replace or augment wages. Republicans may therefore be tilting against windmills in thinking that the size of government can be reduced.
Gary Becker tells us that the future will not be kind to low skilled workers, and that the rewards for skilled workers may not be as great as they have been in the past:
During the past 30 years the market for workers with few skills has been weak pretty much everywhere. The reason is that economies, including developing economies, have increased their demand for knowledge workers at the expense of low skilled workers. The future is not likely to be any kinder to workers with little education and few other work skills.
Various forces have favored skilled workers during the past several decades; indeed, many of them began much earlier. Technological changes and automation, including the development of computers, the Internet, and electronic controls, have reduced the demand for certain types of skilled workers, such as secretaries and clerical workers. They have increased the demand for workers who command considerable knowledge, and who know how to access any additional knowledge necessary to perform various tasks.
He is critical of governmental policies that impede the incentives for individuals to increase their skill levels, as well as those that limits access to the opportunity to do so.
