In 2002 and 2004 it was fairly easy to call the elections for Republican candidates. All things equal, when security -- or foreign affairs in general -- is the dominant issue on people's mind independent voters tend to vote more Republican than Democrat. But when the economcy is the dominant issue, the same holds true for Democrats. From Slate's Today's Papers (10-5-08):
The New York Times leads with a look at how the beleaguered economy has shifted the electoral map in Barack Obama's favor. (The Washington Post stuffs a nearly identical story.) According to the Times, Obama has a "solid lead" or is "well positioned" in states that account for 260 electoral votes, while John McCain has the advantage in states representing 200 electoral votes. McCain's advisers are hoping that the issue of the economy recedes, but the Los Angeles Times lead story predicts sustained misery. "[A]lmost every major player in the economy...is now beating a hasty retreat," says the LAT. Europe, meanwhile, isn't faring much better and the Washington Post leads with the continent's four largest economic powers rejecting a joint strategy to shore up banks. The leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy did, however, call for a global summit to revamp the international monetary system set up under the Bretton Woods Agreements.
Only a month ago Barack Obama's strategy of competing aggressively on Republican turf was looking overly ambitious. But, as the NYT reports, the weakening economy and Obama's fundraising advantage have given new force to his efforts to win at least nine states that voted for George Bush in 2004. Not only does this give Obama more ways to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win, it also forces John McCain to spend money defending once-reliable red states, while limiting his ability to compete elsewhere.
After pointing out Obama's substantial advantages, the Times covers itself by mentioning "how closely contested the campaign remains" and warning that "the field could...shift again in the final weeks." The McCain campaign certainly isn't throwing in the towel. "Senator Obama has more money than God, the most favorable political climate imaginable—a three-week Wall Street meltdown and financial crisis—and with all that, the most margin he can get is four points?" said Bill McInturff, a McCain pollster. Four points, really?
