Wednesday, April 9, 2008

The GOP Youth Vote

Seems non-existent, but hasn't always been the case. David Frum speculates about how the GOP lost the youth vote:

What's driving the young people away? Four things.

1. Young people react to the success or failure of the first politicians they know. The twentysomethings of the 1980s, for example, associated the Democratic Party with the
malaise of Jimmy Carter — and the GOP with the triumphs of Ronald Reagan. Today's Republican Party is associated with a wave of disappointments and embarrassments: Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, congressional corruption scandals, the mortgage crisis.

2. The Reagan years were a time of prosperity for young workers. Unemployment
plunged, wages rose, housing became more affordable. The Bush years have not been so favorable. The cost of a college degree rose faster than pay for college graduates. New college graduates saw their wages actually drop after inflation. And the costs of housing have outpaced incomes for just about all young people.

3. The Republican Party has become increasingly
identified with conservative Christianity. Younger Americans are becoming more secular and more permissive. In particular, young Americans have become increasingly tolerant of homosexuality and increasingly willing to have children outside marriage. While unmarried births have dropped among teenagers since the welfare reform of 1995, unmarried births have actually been rising among women in their 20s.

4. Today's twentysomethings are
browner and blacker than those of the 1980s. Hispanics and Asians both tilt strongly Democratic, as of course do African-Americans.

So that's it. His remedies are for Republicans to focus on Social Security taxes, present a "sunnier" face on their social issue positions, emphasize the environment, and start proving they can deliver on promises.