Saturday, July 18, 2015

Is gay marriage longer a wedge issue?

There are arguments that it isn't.

It didn't make the cut of the five issues Ted Cruz was argued to be able use to defeat Hillary Clinton.

Beyond that, it appears that a consensus has developed that, despite that fact that candidates had been able to use it successfully before, this is no longer the case. Republican candidates could once use it to divide Democratic voters. Those who saw gay marriage as dominant, might vote for the Republican on this one issue despite still being supportive of the party on other issues. As Democrats have become more solidly supportive of gay marriage, it has emerged more of a wedge issue for Republicans. The fact is that opposition comes mostly from older voters, this helps explain why it no longer resonates politically. Plus, the federal courts are driving most of the change, which removes it from the political sphere.

It shows how politics changes over time - at least in some areas.

For more:

- Wedge Issue No More: Opposing Marriage Equality Is a Political Loser.

Support for same-sex marriage has been on the upswing since 1996, according to Gallup. When the question was first asked, just 27 percent said “should be” in response to the question, “Do you think marriages between homosexuals should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriage?” Sixty-eight percent said they should not be recognized as valid. Today, the “should be’s” are at 60 percent, an all time high, and the “should not be’s” are at an all-time low, at 37 percent. In just 20 years, a third of the country has changed their mind on the question.
Support is increasing even in Republican circles, going from 16 percent to 37 percent in the Gallup poll. A Washington Post poll this year found higher support, 42 percent of Republicans said they supported same-sex marriage.
In news more pertinent to presidential candidates, support for same-sex marriage is a political winner, and, perhaps more importantly, opposition is a political loser. In a memo sent by Democracy Corpstoday, the 55 percent of 2016 potential voters say they are less likely to support a presidential candidate that opposes same-sex marriage.

Also - Tim Cook and the End of Gay Rights as a Wedge Issue.

Here's an argument that gay rights could emerge as a wedge issue, but instead of one that splits Democrats, could split Republicans:

- The Birth of the Left-Wing Wedge Issue.

Well, in 2016, same-sex marriage can be a wedge issue again, but this time, for our team. The numbers are now so decisive that surely in the key swing states with the bushels of electoral votes, the likely Democratic candidate can cast shame upon the head of her opponent. In Florida, support for gay marriage was 57 percenta year ago, and it’s probably a little higher now. In Ohio, support-to-opposition was 52-37 in 2012, and that’s surely higher now. In Virginia in 2013, support registered at 56 percent. The issue isn’t a loser in any important swing state, with the possible exception of North Carolina, which of course is just icing for the Democrats anyway.