Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Catching up with the 2016 election

Fox News put months of speculation to rest Tuesday evening,announcing the final lineup for Thursday night's Republican presidential debate. The network announced that it planned to limit participation in the primetime showdown to the top 10 performers in the five most-recent national polls, prompting months of speculation and jockeying. Ultimately, the lineup that will participate at 9 p.m. — the first 2016 debate sanctioned by the Republican Party — matched most predictions.
The top 10:
1. Businessman Donald Trump. Five-poll average: 23.42. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush: 123. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 10.24. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee: 6.65. Dr. Ben Carson: 5.86. Sen. Ted Cruz: 5.47. Sen. Marco Rubio: 5.48. Sen. Rand Paul: 4.89. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 3.410. Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 3.2

From the Washington Post: Many top Republican candidates are spending less time in New Hampshire.

It seemed clear this week why Republican presidential hopeful Scott Walker isn’t planning to spend much time here in New Hampshire.
During an hour-long stop at a pizza parlor on Monday, voters grilled him on immigration and how he would combat the Islamic State. Liberal activists tricked him into posing with a fake check from billionaire donors. And outside, a protester jumped on top of a car and shouted, “You’re afraid to answer the real questions!”
Like many other GOP candidates, Walker is spending relatively little time campaigning in this state, which holds the nation’s first primary, banking instead on winning the Iowa caucuses and then stockpiling delegates in the South and elsewhere.
. . . Walker’s approach is a part of a broader trend that threatens to make New Hampshire less crucial than it has been in past contests, the result of an enormous GOP field, an increasingly nationalized primary race and a new cluster of early primary contests in the Republican-rich South.

And more from the Washington Post: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why.

Why did I miss Trump's appeal so badly? Simply put: I had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump -- much less a reversal in such a short period of time. I based my conclusion that Trump would never be a relevant player in the Republican primary fight on the ideas that once people 1) know you and 2) don't like you, you can't change those twin realities much.
That was 100 percent true. Until Donald Trump proved it (and me) wrong.