And this is from a conservative news source. The article taps into much of what we will cover over the semester in 2305.
- Click here for the article.
Here's a small selection from it:
Back in July, when the NBC/WSJ poll had him at 45 percent approval, Trump was not cracking 42 percent in the head-to-head matchups against Democrats. Serious political handicappers should keep a close eye on whether this “inverted yield curve” takes hold and drags down Trump’s re-election prospects.
In addition, pundits should stop making the mistake that Trump can carry the Electoral College while securing under 42 percent of the popular vote, instead focusing far greater attention on the fact that Trump has a hardening majority of the American electorate opposing his re-election. In fact pundits—as well as the president himself—misunderstand how he pulled off the upset in 2016.
The truth is that Trump’s base did not elect him. His base brought him close, but what paved the road for the inside straight that secured his majority in the Electoral College, was a late swing away from Hillary among suburban women, middle-aged Hispanic men, those with some college but not a four year degree, and independents, combined with a drop in the black turnout. Trump is weaker today than he was in November 2016 in each of those demographic subsets, and the economic uncertainty and distress in the bond markets are affecting the investment accounts of those older voters Trump needs to have any chance of mounting a comeback.
Relevant Terms:
political pundits
American electorate
Republicans
Democrats
polling
public opinion
pollsters
sample
approval/disapproval ratings
self described liberals/conservatives
margin of error
Electoral College
factions
demographics
voter turnout
