Friday, March 6, 2020

From 538: What We Know About The Voters Who Swung Super Tuesday For Biden

For our look at the composition of the electorate, and voter behavior.

- Click here for the article.

A key part of former Vice President Joe Biden’s success on Super Tuesday was his strong performance among voters who had only made up their minds in the last few days. According to exit poll data, Biden won at least 40 percent — if not more — of the late-deciding vote in every state except Sanders’s home state of Vermont.

But who exactly were these voters? And why did they so overwhelmingly back Biden at the last minute? If we look at the exit poll data we have, there is a lot of variation from state to state, but there are a few key trends from Tuesday:

1. Late deciders, on average, were more moderate.

2. Voters in the Northeast (Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont) and the Midwest (Minnesota) were especially likely to decide late (nearly half did) while voters in some parts of the South and California were more likely to have cast their ballot early (in California, mail-in voting played a huge role in boosting early voting numbers).

3. Biden picked up a lot of support among white voters who decided late.