A Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that 60 percent of Republicans oppose a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, even as 57 percent of all Americans — and a similar majority of independents — favor one.
. . . That suggests, in your average swing district, about 60 percent of Republicans would stand opposed.
But the vast majority of Republicans don’t come from swing districts; they come from conservative-leaning districts. In fact, according to a study of the new congressional map from Fair Vote, all but 50 of the 232 House Republicans come from districts that favor Republicans by double digits (at least a 55 percent-45 percent partisanship advantage).
In other words, all but 50 House Republicans have very little to worry about in the general election but plenty to worry about in the primary. (And as their districts get more conservative, the higher the likelihood of a primary backlash against a vote for a path to citizenship.)
We've discussed primary elections, coupled with gerrymandered districts, as being one of the factors that restricts the ability of the two parties to compromise on the various issues on Congress' agenda, the supports that argument. Any House Republican that chooses to support this lenient approach to immigration can face a strong primary challenger who opposes it, and could well lose.
And as we've discussed before, this belies the idea that Congress responds to the preferences of the majority. The passionate minority that can dominate primary elections has far more influence.
