Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Did the Republicans Have an Impact on the Democratic Party Outcome?

The big question regarding the Democratic turnout and Clinton's win in Texas is whether it was due to crossover votes by Republicans. Limbaugh tried to persuade Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton, but there is no guarantee that it actually happened in great numbers, or had an impact, or even if it did, the impact matters. Here is a post that makes the argument than it did matter.

Someone crunched the numbers and argues that the drop-off, the number of people who did not vote for races other than the president, was 700,000. Are we to believe that these were all Republicans who came in, voted for Hillary and left?

I'll point out that Texas' proportional representational system muted the impact that simply winning the election has on the national race. If it was all or nothing it matters, but that's not how Texas Democrats do it. Clinton won the state but did marginally better than Obama in the delegate totals. Neither was in a position to win outright no matter what happened in Texas, the race will continue to the convention, so I chalk this up to a publicity stunt by Limbaugh. And it worked.